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I agree with Num4. But I believe this will happen only once they have announced one or both tyk2 compounds as INDs. There is a hell of a lot that can be read into those IND data packages both for compound production and it’s efficacy/safety profile. If those look great then the value of tyk2 and the number of interested parties will be considerable, as the risk will be much lower. So it should allow bigger upfront investment. I guesstimate we are 10-12 months away at best.
Certainly a buzz around these molecules right now. Still some questions over the safety of BMS candidates. Kim Papp, M.D., Ph.D., from K. Papp Clinical Research and Probity Medical Research in Peterborough, Ontario, Canada, and colleagues randomly assigned 267 patients to receive a TYK2 inhibitor, BMS-986165, orally (3 mg every other day, 3 mg daily, 3 mg twice daily, 6 mg twice daily, or 12 mg daily) or placebo. The researchers found that at week 12, the percentage of patients with ≥75 percent reduction in the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index score was 7 percent (three of 45 patients) with placebo, 9 percent (four of 44 patients) with 3 mg of BMS-986165 every other day (P = 0.49 versus placebo), 39 percent (17 of 44 patients) with 3 mg daily (P < 0.001 versus placebo), 69 percent (31 of 45 patients) with 3 mg twice daily (P < 0.001 versus placebo), 67 percent (30 of 45 patients) with 6 mg twice daily (P < 0.001 versus placebo), and 75 percent (33 of 44 patients) with 12 mg daily (P < 0.001 versus placebo). For patients in the intervention group, there were three serious adverse events. "Larger and longer-duration trials of this drug are required to determine its safety and durability of effect in patients with psoriasis," the authors write. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2018-10-tyk2-inhibitor-psoriasis-weeks.html
Hi Oldsilk, I used to work in that industry, selling preclinical services, so I have basic knowledge up to the clinic but it’s best described as commercial. The real science is still a dark art and Thoth plus a few others here really help to build my confidence in the SAR small molecule MOA. Like others I think a nice royalty payout from Sierra will help take tyk2 through preclinical easily. All going well with a successful IND application then a major will take all of SAR including the platform. As it stands I can’t see this being much above 15-16p per share but I hope to be proved very wrong. A pancreatic cancer treatment could be whole next level. Ive got just over 1.5M and tempted to add more to ensure a very happy retirement. Enjoy the weekend H
Hi Thoth, Standard small molecule pre-clinical safety tox is between £700K-1M depending on end points. But this isn't really standard and further tissues and matrices may need testing. £1.2M per indication/compound should cover it and estimate 10-15 months to read out if they can get compound and schedule a study slots quickly. H
Could Emh make pure lithium metal? This could be the future. Though other startups have for years made various claims about lithium-metal batteries, none yet have gotten past the development or testing phases; Pellion has already been selling their battery to at least one buyer since February. Pellion’s battery can pack nearly double the energy of a conventional lithium-ion battery, making it able to, for example, double the time a drone can spend in the air. That 100% increase in energy density is a step change compared to the annual 10% or so improvement the battery industry currently averages. If Pellion overcomes early limitations, its batteries have the potential to power a Tesla car for 800 km (500 miles) on a single charge, rather than today’s upper limits of 400 km.