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Very positive RNS. As to any delay in drilling I would be interested in comments from ddboy about the work involved in planning the drill. I take it that once a site is decided there is still some decision making around the set up depending on what they are going to try and achieve. Lets get it right because if they do hit the Paleo then it will be a game changer. Some more patience required I fear!
H
Indeed, the gradual drop is normal on no news. Of course that drop before went down to 11p. So when does the slide stop? Or, probably a better question, why did it happen last time? There is a lot of trading going on around here with a mainly PI shareholder base (outside of OGIF) so there is great room for the people that really know how things work to make a lot of dosh. If we look at the recent high in the low 30's then there is a great opportunity to make money. As a conservative investor (in O&G!) then my observation is that someone is losing money/selling out early/being prudent.
My view is 27p plus with the expectation that it will be SG's £2.20 plus. I intend to sue him if I get less than £1,99 a share.
H
Crude. they found a bit of gas (!). want to test and are getting kit which they reckon means they will start in February (thus theories about how specialist the kit and thus how important existing shows might be), no word on TE11. Investor presentation updated so worth a look. GSA still promised...……. Would remind everyone that JP did say the comms would be much more limited and down played in this final straight.
H
Many will have read this I am sure, and I read it a few years back, but came across it again recently. Worth a read as apart from it being quite an entertaining read it also makes it very clear what the professionals in the investment world think about their customers (us!) and their desire to ensure that they make the money and not us. A little dated but still the same ethos I am sure exists. Final interesting bit in it is the discussion about the construction of the products that would one day wreck the financial system in 2007 - as this was written well before it is fascinating to see how the greed that drove the creation of these products had no interest in the potential outcome for the rest of us. Sorry if it is off topic but it isn't totally if you are making investments...……H
Give it a go, it would be interesting to see their reply. If they say it is below their 'interest level' then I would ask for their guidelines. If they are particularly unhelpful in looking into this then I would ask that it be raised to a senior level as a general management complaint with the view that you would like to see them act on the warning they put on this BB. From there you can start to put some pressure on them to do something starting perhaps with a freedom on information request looking to identify how well they police this sort of behaviour on BB's and the outcomes. At some point they either do something or have to formally write to you and tell you why not. Then of course you can raise that with whoever next you wish (MP, Government etc).
As far as evidence goes MTT has been very helpful in that he has a written record of all the claims he made around TE9 and TE10 and now has admitted that he made all of this up. If even one person wishes to confirm that his comments persuaded them to sell some SOU shares at a loss then I think he will have a case to answer.
I think it would be no bad thing if both ramper and de-rampers had a clear example of a real life outcome/punishment of someone making posts without considering the potential of what they post. The FCA warning is pretty clear that posting inside information or information that is false or misleading can lead to action.
MTT laughed off warnings from other posters about his comments so if this does go somewhere then he only has himself to blame. The fact he continues to make abusive comments about other posters is probably not going to help him - again, his choice.
H
Thanks Shaun
Don't disagree about bizarre!
I do about what people say specifically and indeed there may be room for that with any or all posters that make claims.
It seems to me that in O&G you probably cannot get a situation that is more of concern than when a drill is getting stuck into the ground and the results are awaited - that is a very highly charged environment not least with the SP pressures in recent times.
I dont believe that they have insider information and thus I wont be selling on that fact - my point is that for those that choose to sell, and lose money on this 'insider information. can do something about it. It wont be easy and it will take some effort (as I know from fighting the education system) but something will happen..
H
It may well be a leak but then it may well not.
We have people asserting that it must be a leak because of a significant drop (yesterday) and then we have people asserting that it must be a leak because of a significant rise.
One of you may or may not be right.
Its just an awful lot of conjecture that doesn't seem to make a lot of difference even though as a BB we can talk about what we like.
MTT got some credence (and abuse) for his comments - whatever is right his COS at 50/50 is higher than the COS of the wells we are working on just now so he always had a fair chance of being right. I don't see that he has 'called' TE10 right yet but if he wants to do this then he should tell us unequivocally.
He has had a few threats about the legality of what he is an isn't doing if he is sharing insider information. My own opinion, as somebody that deals with the FCA, is that if they decide to sell their Sound shares where MTT has made one of his comments, and they suffer a loss, then they should register a formal complaint with the FCA. I only say this in passing as I will keep my investment to the LE and see what we get. I understand the risk and accept that. I assure you that the FCA will take notice of what MTT is claiming and will look into this if there has been financial loss - you may need to press them but that is the nature of this. Nothing on the internet is entirely 'secret' and those accessing websites can be identified as we all know.
As a final comment, if I dont achieve the return on my investment that I want then I will be interested to know if there were any issues around the manner that the business was handled. I dont meant that I want a guarantee on obtaining a profit, just that if there were issues around how the business was handled then I will look to get some answers from the company and the regulators. I have just spent two years on a First Tier Tribunal for disability discrimination against my son, an area where I had little knowledge, and the results that can be obtained are impressive. You may not get what you have lost (financially or, in my sons case, his school place) but you can bring any and all parties to explain their actions. Hard work but not a bad hobby!
Sorry for the length of this mail but I thought that my comment here might help those considering action for any of their losses could be assured that there will be recourse albeit it may take a wee bit of effort.
GLA
H
Just an observation that some people have made serious money out of SOU over the past couple of years (not me currently I might add!).
The MM's have had more than their fair share too but then that's their business but we ought to be aware of that in the fluctuations
Sadly, for someone to have made money then others have had to lose it.
The various propositions for all of this have been gone over many times recently but we will soon see where we stand as TE10 results are nailed down and released and then on to TE11 to further (hopefully) prove up the model.
Interesting times - GLA for 2019
H
How well this well does (pun intended) is important but if we are getting evidence that the gas is there in line with the general model then that will support the valuation immensely in my view.
H
Honestly or not, its 26%.
On an optimistic note I would like to think that even if we don't get commercial we might at least learn something that would help in refining the next drill and possibly that would add to the value.
H
I have seen a lot of business letters in my life of different standards and some of the comments are not unreasonable in one sense.
It would be useful to understand quite what people who are posting think actually has happened here?
It sounds like it is suggested that this is a forged document produced to support the current weak SP situation.
If this is the theory then someone at SOU has created a forged letter in the name of their major partner who they will rely on to make this project work, they have then released this letter into the world of social media where it will be viewed by millions of people not least of whom will be the staff of OGIF who I am sure will be keeping a close eye on everything going on at SOU. I am not sure what OGIF would do if they saw a 'forged' letter released in these circumstances but I rather suspect it would not be good for SOU or the business relationship and indeed would probably lead to civil and perhaps criminal legal action.
I know what my employers would do in this scenario and it would not be pleasant for the other party.
Either I am being very gullible here or this whole piece about the letter is just non sensical - if there is anything in it then it is a ruse that would be discovered within hours if not minutes of it being perpetrated and the resulting damage would far outweigh the short term gain such as it has been.
But add it to the list of conspiracy theories for those so minded.........................
H
Its encouraging to see the company calmly getting on with what they are supposed to be doing while the panic rages outside.
I assume that they also doing what is needed with their partners in this venture and with the Moraccan authorities.
Hopefully this one will give us something to work with to firm up the final offer when it is sold.
I would assume that this negotiation will ongoing during this frightful problem with confidence in the SP. It would be very interesting to hear the discussions between the partners and the BOD as I suspect they will not be the same as those being played out on this BB. That said, I doubt anyone will be impressed by the SP performance. As mentioned many times before, this share has a very high percentage of PI ownership...…………
H
If it helps, and I don't see that it makes a blind bit of difference to anyone, your brother was right.
I haven't even checked what he said but if he needs me to say it then I have said it.
Well done.
Kids at primary school used to do this when you dropped your sweet on the ground - I thought they were childish doing that then, I think it is childish now.
H
Joe, I agree with your thinking - what we need is a calm approach by the management with a coherent plan to maximise the value of what is known and that includes finalising the GSA as the bargaining position will move a little (I think) if the likelihood of additional finds is perceived as less likely.
The next two drills will be very serious icing on the cake but the approach proposed (if not already in place) will protect investors to a degree.
Wont stop panic selling today though but there you go
GLA
H
Off on a walking/drinking weekend to Scotland now - Sound will need to manage on its own for a little while without my careful oversight!
Could I respectfully suggest that some of those who have overanalysed to hell a short RNS earlier in the week to follow a similar course of action...………
GLA
H
PS Wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend but will be out of it over the weekend in other ways!
Ozzie
I totally agree with your points
I would add to them however the history of announcements of success in gas finds in the country and the embarrassment that caused the regime - SOU will be under great pressure via their close contacts not to overplay any potential success here. There has to be real commercial gas here before announcements are made - if the Government allow another wild success story to go out there then that would make them look really foolish should it not be correct.
Also, I think what is happening on the ground seems as close to plan as we could expect
All imo
GLA
H
Crude
Glad to see my Waterloo reference previously has stayed in your mind! If those men could face the horrors of that day and carriedon to the stress of SOU and its SP have no comparison. I cant be doi g with those who cant take their decisions.
On a more pedantic note could I point out that the ritish army on the day was made up by many Irish men and Scottish and Irish units. Not sure how many Welshmen were there. Also of course there many of our European friends (!) in the squares notably the Kings German Legion and othersfrom what would be Germany plus the Dut h/Belgians.
I hope to meet you at La Belle Alliance of SOU! Or in GRH’s garden which sounds amazing. GRH - lucky we are an ho est bunch now you have shared the security code for the estate - to be fair most clever neds might have guessedif they listened inhistory class!
GLA
H
T
Any particular reason for your estimates?
To be fair I wouldn't disagree with the 10p low side if it is a duster as many will get out then although my personal view is that there is enough value there across the assets for 40 - 50p.
However, I disagree totally about the SP if there is a positive result here - if that happens then the game is on as all the scenarios start to come together. If the SOU story begins to be proved up then someone has to be an early mover or the cost will escalate massively. I believe that the market will reflect this.
We will see
H
With you on that. The waffle about the detailed technicalities on the various liners to be used or not just astounds me. You buy into the concepts, the plans and most importantly the ability of the team. If a board like this knows more that those guys then you are investing in the wrong company!
I am far from making money here but that is no-one's fault other than mine.
I don't lie awake worrying about this investment because I have accepted what I have done was a good decision based on the information available and on my risk/reward approach.
I hope it pays off but nothing in life is guaranteed (other than the obvious) so what will be will be.
I am not planning to buy any more SOU at the moment as I think I have enough but you never know if it should go much lower................
GLA
H
Kirk, been doing quite a bit of reading up on the 100 days of Napoleon and I have a mental image of fixing bayonets and getting into a square when I think of the current situation with Sound - we will fight the buggers to the end and hopefully will be victorious but if not, we will go down fighting gloriously! In other words us investors have cast our dice and will now see the outcome of the battle!
On an absolutely different vein but also slightly related is the news that I got the other day about permission being granted by the Upper Tribunal to allow an appeal on behalf of my lad in a disability discrimination case at school - that is more important to me than the Sound outcome (although having more cash to hire a decent barrister rather than do it myself would not be a bad thing!).
Funny old thing life............
GLA
H