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Many thanks SB, More compelling facts which lead to the conclusion that Hibbert’s analysis is correct. Of course, this does not detract from the commerciality of the well where it is recognised and appropriate method is employed. We know Simon monitors this board, shareholders deserve unadulterated facts. He should update the position outlining what method will be incorporated to achieve sustainable flow. Hibbert has clearly stated a fresh approach where previous have failed. Such an update should he choose to be transparent factoring in the new method may immediately add 25% to the SP. Harry
SB, I have listened to both interviews of Hickey and Hibbert. First, it’s rather disappointing that Simon chooses to deferentially ask leading questions as opposed to interrogative where the facts may be better illustrated: after all, there are tried and tested evidence rules in our adversarial system which forbids leading questions to one’s own witness leaving opposing counsel to delve into the truth through rigorous cross examination leaving it to judge/jury/shareholders to adjudge on the facts. I find it difficult to believe he was an investment banker with JPM. There is a clear dichotomy. Hickey stating a light oil with API 51 and Hickey stating a waxy oil: with your guidance, we know a waxy oil must be less than API 40 to attract the premium so stated by Hibbert. I emailed Simon with , inter alia, this question, however, he has elected not to reply. This is a matter which requires clarification ,even a layman as myself understands that classification must be established to achieve optimum flows. The facts presented to date would seem to favour a waxy oil given the history of sustainability of flows. It is very important that NUOG achieve sustainable flows and, should an ESB be required, shareholders should be so advised. Harry
SB, Sheep say baaaaaa.
SB, Even Morse not allowed during EMCON. Harry
SB, There is a secured loan on the title of GHS. Do Nuog have the authority for a 70/30 split within the terms of that Charge? Harry
Lejib, The facts surrounding the well. We have Hibbert pronouncing waxy oil, we will not approach it in the previous strategy as this has failed and, we can hit the sweet spot without 3D seismic. We know that Hibbert is not a geologist but a “pipe wrangler”. We know that to achieve a premium for waxy oil it must have an API below 40. I see nothing irretrievable with the well. The clear way forward is injection of the necessary Petro physics to achieve a positive flow test (say 200-300 bopd) and, the fitting of an ESB thereafter to enhance the sustainability. Harry
Roger, Mmmm, usually such a surname would understand Putonghua even if Cantonese is the native language. Harry
KC. Shi yingyu ni de muyu?
Appreciated SB, I have emailed Andre Peddigrew at the NF DNR with enquiries relating to API and reasons for delay in the grant of the flow test. Harry
SB, The positive II gleaned from the interview was the fact that Hibbert was honest concerning past mistakes and the fresh approach would be consonant with the prevailing conditions. One can assume dealing with waxy oil and it’s difficulties. My layman’s analogy: a patient with high blood pressure requiring blood thinners, a low fat diet and perhaps ultimately procedures to alleviate clogged arteries. Are we dealing with oil of a more realistic API in the 30 range? Positives being oil with a high wax content commands a premium. Once flow test results are advised hopefully in the 200 bopd range, they can then extrapolate on the sustainable enhanced rate with an ESP. And, Hibbert is clearly there to advise on the further field development to find the sweet spot. Harry
SB, A pragmatic and reasoned summary corroborated by clear insider knowledge of the industry. Moreover, in tune with a conversation I had with Simon: “ the first will be the catalyst...”. In tune with YingTong ( a poster with sound financial knowledge): “ I’ll wait for the first, let it settle and take a position...”. Paul Warwick is weighing 2 and a half strategies for Bentley with a bias on FPSO: one would hope MFDevco are a serious contender here. Harry
SB, Have you deliberated over Paul Warwick’s latest statements in the Aberdeen Journals regarding 3 quarter decision? Harry
Fantasy, What’s your definition of bunches? A bunch of bananas is incorrect, it is a hand. A bunch as in a feminine hairstyle is 2. A bunch of grapes is more than 2 and, if they are Californian Emperor, there are many. However, whichever bunch you choose, I am pleased you determine there is yet upward movement in this stock. Harry
SB, Never danced to another’s tune. Will leave some, however, drip feeding into Reabold. Harry
SB, Any deliberations on Mompesson Ltd and, the association with a prebendary who locked down a village against the plague but managed to extricate his progeny. Harry
Jarem, I viewed your well researched posts with respect and credibility and, one of the handful of posters worth reading. However, you posted approx 10 weeks ago stating a timeline of 5 weeks to realisation of an SP of 10 to 20p. Fact, the SP is 0.97p. Today you post the increase from 0.40 to 0.97 which is of a historical timeline with a totally disparate appetite for risk from the current cohort of investors. Fact, the SP has suffered an almost 50% recent loss. Unfortunately, you have lost my respect for your credibility. Harry
LT, I feel sure there will be a rerate prior to the nuptials certainly from GH and perhaps MF-us baby boomers have the pleasure of support of our progeny onto the property ladder. This baby boomer has a second tier progeny to support-great fun. Harry
Taxi, Are you invested here? Harry
Hiwire, an almost mirror image of my current analysis and, a great post for those investors sitting on the fence/sidelines who would be most welcome. Second, surprisingly goes to Taxi for respect to the gentleman of the board LT. Harry
Jester makes a valid point by comparing and contrasting contextual statements made by RNS. PVF would commence flow test on approval from DNR. That approval was delayed by 3 weeks, in itself not problematic, however, the latest RNS states, inter alia, that PVF will not commence such test until further preparation is completed. The salient point is the BOD have misled. Given the 3 week delay in approval, why is the test further delayed? I do not see today’s RNS as positive for the above reasons. The BOD consistently miss stated timelines which unsettle investors as evidenced by the closing price. Harry