The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Completely agree. I suspect the sharing of info particularly relates to big sites where there are multiple builders on one site. They will want to agree a broad pricing structure between them so as to hit the market at the right level. Every report has to find something otherwise why bother. Suspect they’ll be told to improve their practices get a slap on the wrists and maybe a fine. Has made Gove look pretty silly. The much worse outcome was they were found to be hoarding sites and forced to break up their labd banks. That would have been bad.
I do think inflation will start to fall quite significantly over the coming months, click on link below. Just look at commodities prices inc food staple, they have all tumbled dramatically. Will require BOE to show a little more patience we shall see. Food prices typiclly take 6-9 months to come down after the base prices fall, which should be in the next few months. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
Excellent summary, certainly feels like the kitchen sink has been lobbed. Also they are behind the curve ball on the cladding costs, so thats £275m straight off the bottom line and out of the divi pot.Hopefully a one off. All the others swallowed those costs in 2021.
On reflection you are probably closer to the mark on the amount of the 22 dividend. I do think the market is more resilient that you think. I wouldn't be surprised to see the reservation rate back to 0.4-0.5 per site. Its certainly not 2021 or 2022 but then than was an extraordinary market like no other in recent times. Also the mini budget killed the market stone dead almost a Lehman moment (bluntly thats what it felt like until Truss resigned). I would say a fair comparison is with 2019 and reservation rates are marginally ahead of those levels for Barratts/Bellway and Redrow in the first 5 weeks of the year. Certainly wont be a blow out year but I think the market will steadily improve throughout the year making for an average year. Will be interesting to see if they have started to increase production on the better than expected start to the year. The 15th March budget my also have something for 1st time buyers. Politically tricky but who knows with this lot!
That suggests to me there will be a payment for 2022 paid in April 2023. Then going forward a split divi. Not sure what means for how much we get for 2022 payment. Could it mean something that matches last years i.e. £1.25. Then the new financial year is perhaps £1.5 ish split into 2 payments paid in August 23 and April 24? Just my musings and I am most likely completely wrong.
The 2022 dividend per share will be announced in March 2023, alongside the Group’s full year 2022 results, and paid in Q2 2023. Guided by the new policy, when proposing the 2022 dividend the Board will carefully consider the business’ performance, financial position and outlook at that time. There will be no special distribution for 2022.
For the 2023 financial year and onwards, dividends will be paid out semi-annually, with an interim dividend for 2023 expected to be paid in the second half of 2023.
Dean Finch, Group Chief Executive at Persimmon, said:
Persimmon was proud to lead the industry two years ago with our original pledge to protect leaseholders. Since then, we have been making good progress on remediation and aim to be on site on all developments by the end of the year.
The publication of the developer remediation contract is the culmination of many months of hard work on all sides and we are pleased to confirm our intention to sign the final document in the near future, becoming the first developer to do so.
The terms of the contract are entirely consistent with our existing commitment to protect leaseholders in multi-storey buildings we constructed from the costs of remediating cladding and life-critical fire-related safety issues. We are pleased to reaffirm this commitment today and that we were able to work constructively with the Government to secure the agreement.
Under legislation to be brought forward this spring, a Responsible Actors Scheme (RAS) will be created, allowing the Secretary of State to block developers who have not signed the contract or failed to comply with its terms from carrying out development and from receiving building control approval. This will prevent them from operating as normal in the housing market for as long as they do not resolve the problems of the past.
I don’t want to get into a tit for tat spat, because generally the conversation on this board is pretty grown up and quite often insightful. Unlike other house builder boards which are just an endless medley of copy and pasting and name calling. The issues to which you refer are well documented and the cladding situation has been ongoing for over 3 years. So this is not new. The major house builders have been provisioning for it for the last 2 years and work has commenced on numerous buildings. The RDT is now also in place. For whats its worth I do hold what I consider to be a reasonably sized position in PSN.
Exactly and their pricing is guided by swap rates. Once one starts competing for volume they all start to follow and it always starts by reducing the costs of the most attractive lending i.e. borrowers with 40%+ equity. Expect reductions in other more risky products to follow suit. I think the bond market is saying inflation is coming under control and central banks are close to the terminal rates.
They already have. TSB reduced their 5 year fix by 1.3% last week, as did Nationwide. 5 year swap rates have fallen c50 basis points since the beginning of the year to 3.58%, 10 year down to 3.33%. Post mini budget these topped 5.38% and 4.82% respectively. Mortgage rates will fall further across the board in the next few weeks. I would expect to see 5 year fixed offers at c4.5% in the not to distant future. For 60% LTV.