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Thanks for coming back on this - I’m a sporadic poster as work is busy but appreciate un-emotional discussion. Please keep going - I’ve often thought you can judge the quality of the equity by the quality of posts on the boards and if that is currently being raised, maybe the prospects of AEX actually coming through are, too.
Oh … and not sweating either, just not convinced on the timelines. Let’s see, eh?
And to expand in my previous point - revenue is not dependent on CH-1, which as I noted may still fail or require significant amount of work to make it operational. There are other wells that can produce - I’d be interested to see the sequencing of a development plan. The excitement of a new drill will be the catalyst to the share price we all wait for. But so would revenue and prioritising wells that have already been proved would surely accelerate that. Or am I missing something?
Rational discussion based on different points of view on an AEX LSE board - what’s happening happening to the world??
Take a look at Chat GPT - it makes Google look like a black and white television. AI driven search I guess - ask it anything and it will give you a full text answer (as opposed to directing you to web pages). It’s both brilliant and terrifying.
Thanks for the extensive reply. I agree that the government has become far more accommodating under Samia Hassan, and we have undoubtedly seen an acceleration on what are largely administrative functions.
According to Chat GPT, it takes between 6 and 24 months to build a 35km gas pipe. Given your point that change in government understandably takes time to translate into operation efficiency, I’d suggest that it would be generous to say 1 year to construct such a pipeline in Tanzania. So were that construction to start today (I assume it has not already), it would complete early next year.
CH-1 might fail (short delay you say - can you provide your definition of short please?)
NT-2 is not an operational well due to the high gas influx that nearly blew up half of Tanzania (yes, I exaggerate but to make the point that it requires significant engineering to make it operational). NT-1 is likely the easiest to bring on line, but I don’t know the specifics around pipeline requirements to this well, nor how much intervention is required given it has not been touched nearly a decade).
We also require permits, licences to be in place and a host of other things I don’t know to detail on.
We still really don’t know what the Zubair’s want with Aminex - I’d like to think it’s is to act as a vehicle by which they can achieve ownership of a FTSE-250 company one day, but equally, they may want to take it private.
So I’m extremely sceptical that Aminex will see very significant revenue in early 2024 (and think it’s reasonable to assume early 2024 equates to Q1 2024).
I am here, backing the view that this will eventually play out favourably. But I place no faith in the timelines being discussed.
Always happy to have the potential positives highlighted as it’s otherwise the most miserable investment I’ve ever made.
But can you tell me, and I mean this with out antagonism and with genuine interest, what gives you any faith in this statement, given the delays in …. well … pretty much everything, but especially the drill of CH-1 recently, which has occurred under the apparently more favourable operational and political climate we exist in?
* After 5+ years of almost zero revenue, when Ruvuma starts production in early 2024, Aminex will receive very significant revenues.
Hey Jack - I think I’ve figured it. If you take the first 3 letters of “March” and turn them backwards, you get “Ram”. Now, turn the “h” upside down and rotate it 90 degrees … overlay the “c” and we have RAMP!
I think that is the most scientific reasoning we’ll get for choosing March.
I agree we’re all hoping for a recovery play … but I think taking on board the missed dates of the past (which we all hoped would be just that - a thing of the past - now that ARA are operating) is prudent. Unfortunately even with a new operator, funding and favourable political climate we are still missing dates.
So my view would be it is important to consider how the past may inform the future, so you can appraise RNS’s that promise things like accelerated commercial gas with healthy scepticism and perhaps choose to do other things with your money.
Hey Edgar - busy at work but a few things that spring to mind would be:
3-D Siesmic shows a fragmented structure making recovery rates challenging
3-D Siesmic shows massive commercial value and Omani’s take AEX private
L2 high pressure influx makes it impossible to produce from
The 30km pipeline doesn’t get built quickly meaning commercial gas cannot be accelerated
CH-1 gets delayed again for a variety of reasons
Genuine question - where are with SCIR atm? Have they offloaded their share/is there funding for this, I’ve lost the thread on this?
Blackgold - really surprised to see you join the “get personal” mob … surely a review of the AEX’s share price chart over the past 6 years would lend more credence to my point of view than yours? It’s been a dreadful investment - are you able to explain how it’s been a successful investment?
It’s why I don’t post here often - too sharky, difficult to engage in rational discussion - I’d suggest people too emotionally invested!
If AEX is a great investment it should be relatively easy to argue against a bear case with facts, deliverables and profit on your investment (and I mean a solid return, not day trading a stock that flip flops around the penny mark), not gang mentality and personal attacks.
Yes the story has changed, the future looks more solid but return on investment is historically appalling and has been for a long, long time. This is still an incredibly high risk investment and anyone who argues to the contrary is blind, irresponsible or mendacious.
The gamble comes with your money - I do agree that there is potentially a lot of gas down there and that is why I’m here. But I have no faith in target dates. As someone invested since 2006, I’ve had a reasonable amount of time and experience to form that view.
The RNS announcing back to back drills in 2017 was good news, too. And yet here we are, with the 2nd well in the sequence currently scheduled to happen 6 years later.
There only thing here is a massive gamble on a massive asset - it should not be treated otherwise.
Yep I have read the RNS and they are very persuasive and assuring words.
I am personally just not convinced - it is 12-15 months away, there are a lot of work items and dependencies in that RNS … the 3D Siesmic has taken longer than advised, CH-1 is delayed and it sounds as like platitudes to soften the blow of the CH-1 delay to bolster the share price.
This but I find incredibly unlikely:
o Commitment by the TPDC to construct a 30 km pipeline as soon as possible to tie the Ntorya gasfield into the existing Madimba processing and pumping station.
Would love to be proved wrong - let’s see.
ICB888 - what gives you confidence that the early production date will be hit?
I recognise that AEX are not the operator but it seems quite clear that monthly meetings/conference calls take place between the JV partners.
There has clearly been communication breakdown/failure in that AEX were only made aware of the delay as we move into November.
That is a clear red flag that dates given by the JV partnership cannot be trusted.
Why would anyone put faith in an early production date that is coupled to an RNS that has a headline about (yet another) missed date - beggars belief?
Especially when you consider this as a dependency to achieving it:
“o Commitment by the TPDC to construct a 30 km pipeline as soon as possible to tie the Ntorya gasfield into the existing Madimba processing and pumping station.”
Aminex offers the opportunity for the Zubair family to own a London listed company. If they fold their part of the asset back into AEX once operational and further install their own people, they become are major players on the London Stock Exchange - FTSE250 even pushing FTSE100.
It’s blue sky thinking but the more I ponder it the more I like it.
Why? Good question … I wonder if it’s swept up in the general flight from equities following Putin’s ominous threat of “not bluffing” over the use of nuclear arms. Or maybe you’re right and it’s simply because Aminex is rubbish.
“EXPECTS. Read the RNS as written”.
If you do read it as written, you’ll note there is nothing that states APT are going to inform their partners and in turn the market by around the end of August. Being privately owned and operator they are not obliged to do so. For all we know their working practices may be a conference call every month or two. My point being that harping after an RNS is pointless - things are progressing well and as expected.
“APT has recently received the first batch of field seismic data and expects to have processed and interpreted sufficient data to confirm the final drilling location of the Chikumbi-1 ("CH-1") well before the end of August.”