Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Can bitcoin even exist without the miners - surely they cannot fail or the whole thing fails?
BTW - NONE of you look good with this constant back and forth trying to be the alpha male on the board. Can we just get back to talking about Argo - even bl~**dy Mara news would be better than this...
So bitcoin ETF inflows were good again on Friday, over $200m positive. Grayscale dump was even less than the day before at $40m. US markets had two green days in a row.
Apparently miners are selling but is it really offsetting $200m inflows from the etfs a day?
All eyes now on how the ‘youtube crypto experts’ try to spin the reason why bitcoin continues going sideways or down slightly because they are running out of things to blame now…
Https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Much better inflows for the bitcoin ETF's today - +$251.4m.
Grayscale dump was only -$55.7m - again the lowest for over a week.
Shame its not reflected in the bitcoin price. Apparently the miners are all selling a lot of btc also so outflows are not just ETF related.
That constituent list below looks like its from HL website:
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/vaneck-vectorstm-digital-assets-equity-ucit
But it does not match the list on Vanecks website :
https://www.vaneck.com/uk/en/investments/crypto-etf/overview/
which shows a different top 10 for 62% of the ETF:
COINBASE GLOBAL INC 7.84
BLOCK INC 7.74
MARATHON DIGITAL HOLDINGS INC 7.63
BITFARMS LTD/CANADA 6.35
MICROSTRATEGY INC 6.34
BITDEER TECHNOLOGIES GROUP 5.81
NORTHERN DATA AG 5.3
GALAXY DIGITAL HOLDINGS LTD 5.29
CLEANSPARK INC 4.92
TERAWULF INC 4.86
For sure we should talk about other miners in this space - what I was against was turning this board in to the Mara board , Cleanspark board, Riot board or any other board just because they dont have a LSE board for those.
Can you imagine if everyone started positing all the news from the above examples (or more) into this board - it would make it unreadable. That was the point I was trying to make - not that we should not discuss peers. I guess my definition of peer discussion vs posting specific news is confusing the issue - apologies for that if I was not clearer before.
The only reason I mention DAGB at all is that a lot of people are totally unaware of it and even better its on the LSE.
DAGB is diversified - and it gets rebalanced quarterly I believe if one share gets out of sync - I cannot pick a winner here so best to just buy them 'all' (well, with some notable exceptions like Argo) as well as some related companies in the sector in a nice easy package without f/x hassle. Not my fault Mara is one of the bigger positions but that does not mean I will post news about Mara or any of the other ones unless it impacts Argo.
Im just looking at bitcoin at this point- thats my only real concern now which is why I post about bitcoin news and flows etc as it impacts both Argo and the ETF constituents but it avoids starting to talk *specifically* about other miners or it would be chaos on this board. That was my point before.
Example would be Mara shut off a big chunk of its hash rate for maintenance this week and hence the price dropped more than its peers but felt no need to mention it here because its only going to have a limited impact on the DAGB ETF (most people here do not care about that) and it does not impact Argo.
Nothing wrong with trading Argo - its up 8% today compared to the fund I switched into (DAGB.L) which is up 2.5% today - but Im not going to lie - I feel a lot happier being in the diversified fund going forward.
Https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
ETF daily OUT flows for the first time in weeks.
Biggest Grayscale daily outflow to date I think ~$200m - the churn continues.
The data looks incomplete to me - BITB and Fidelty have zero flows - surely thats unlikely.
Luckily Nvidia blowout earnings might bring up the S&P500 and drag bitcoin up with it as its correlated to that - seems to be heading back to $52k resistance as I type which is pretty bullish. Another week of Grayscale churn and if ETF's pick up again - hopefully a break to the upside for bitcoin and in turn the miners.
"The only red flag to me is it all seems so obvious and everyone is calling it. Which usually equals some kind of rug pull event."
This is triggering me as well. If a trade is so obviously one sided and bitcoin is almost certain to sky rocket - it would have done so already as markets are forward looking. Of course, one might argue bitcoin has already skyrocketted in the past year or so.
The hardest part here (if lump sum investing as I have done rather than DCA) is watching the occasional dump. The thing that helps the most when looking at these real-time candle graphs is to try and avoid the 15/30/60 min charts and pull back to the 1 day / 7 day charts - then you start to feel a lot less anxiety.
Https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Big drop in the ETF flows yesterday - and that was two days of demand there. Bitcoin slowly dropping off since last night but above 51.5K for now.
Interesting the 'youtube experts' all starting to change their tune short term - always after the fact of course - such swindlers they all are. All of them use the same playbook. They say it could go up, or down, show both cases and then claim in the following video they were right - depending on which way it went. In turn the watchers who are short see what they want to see and the longs see what they want to see. Amazed how many of them have kept this up for years - its genius really that people still fall for it. They dont make money on their trades as barely any of them ever say what trades they do, let alone in advance - they make their money from youtube subs so bear that in mind when listening to them.
Watching British Hodl is getting harder and harder - hes so overly bullish its getting off putting but again - notice hes pushing much harder for subs now - why would he need subs if hes going to make a fortune on bitcoin going to the moon?
One guy I do like who does a daily ETF update with lots of news collated together is this chap InvestAnswers - example vid below
https://www.youtube.com/live/sWmjfn2VdoA?si=iK_c1YdaGVFTbXin
- hes def worth a watch once a day but again - take all predictions/'multipliers' with a pinch of salt.
Medium / Long term Im counting on the supply shock kicking in, grayscale stopping dumping and the net etf in flows improving but it seems short term we could have a wobble.
What no one is talking about of course is what happens with the huge flows of the ETF's if there is a typical bitcoin correction like there has been in the past and everyone bails out.. it will be the supply shock in reverse. Something to bear in mind at the end of this cycle - whenever that is. Hopefully I'll time it right this time and be out before that happens but I thought that before of course :-)
Following on from my post yesterday about wanting to move into another related instrument as Argo is not looking strong - well I took the opportunity to get out with over 220k shares sold at just over 20p. Not the best price and it feels odd after holding all these years all the way down to be completely out but I have now switched all the funds into DAGB which spreads the risk substantially whilst still staying in this space. You can take a look at the ETF (available on the LSE without f/x charges) here:
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/vaneck-vectorstm-digital-assets-equity-ucit
I wish everyone good luck with Argo but remember - you really are playing a game of chicken here - just be careful.
This is a great site for live pricing
https://www.kitco.com/price/crypto/bitcoin
Its showing a bit of a sell off Im afraid.
One more point - I agree with HarChris with this comment:
"The share price has run out of steam and is far more likely to fall now, with the next move north starting from a much lower base."
Bitcoin is 'stuck' at $52k but if it pushes above $53k I can see it spiking to $55k quite quickly (maybe tomorrow this happens once US markets reopen). I used to think a move like that would really kick start Argo back to the late 20 early 30 pence price but Im not convinced any more - especially now its struggling for 20p.
Every day we get closer to the halving, that feeling of 'playing chicken' with Argo gets more and more stressful. The next pump we get in Argo I will have to take a long hard look at whether the time is now right to switch and ride the upcoming bitcoin pump via a different instrument.
The GBTC was starting to slow but in the past few days it has picked up again - which ties in exactly when Genesis was given the green light to unlock. So say last 3 days average -$150m , the previous 6 days before that ~-$80m - so almost doubled.
https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
I agree that the *net* inflows are still very good and AFTER genesis GBTC bleed finishes will really improve - as long as ETF flows continue as they are or hopefully rise.
Im just pointing out that it might still be a week or so to churn through additional $1.3b billion if you assume the difference between before genesis and after genesis unlock GBTC outflows have gone up by ~$70m a day.
GBTC selling has not eased up - not for at least a week I think whilst the $1.3b Genesis unlock churns through - but after that for sure the net flows should be less impacted by it.
Many of the most vocal youtubers are predicting bitcoin breakout is imminent - Im wondering if two days of ETF demand all in one day tomorrow might trigger it?
Bitcoin holding steady at $52.3k with No US market action today so nothing really to talk about.
Hence the stupid posts predicting 50% daily Argo rise, people feeling the need to remind us and pat themselves on the back for predicting a crypto downturn a few year back (no proof of course) and a few bits of trolling (looking at you Gullablenotme)
I suggest skipping today and coming back here tomorrow :-)
Well bitcoin being at $52.3k with no US market open today is a nice thing to wake up to :-)
Be very interesting to see where it moves today without the help of the ETF's.
Does anyone know if grayscale can dump their bitcoins on the market (due to Genesis) on a non trading day or do they have to sell GBTC within market hours BEFORE they dump in the same way as the bitcoin ETFs. I would love to think that Grayscale dumping took place over Sat / Sun and Mon with the ETF's not around and bitcoin is still touching 52 week highs.
never understand why ******* contests flare up between strangers on a bulletin board full of strangers. whats the point - no one can prove their argument or claims that they are ‘better’ and the target audience dont know them so they dont care either. such a waste of time.
meanwhile back on topic, nothing else happening today it seems other than a small recovery since yesterday in bitcoin price. still seems huge resistance at $52k and a us market holiday tomorrow so no etf flows. another week of grayscale dumping to contend with also so bitcoin price really could go either way this week
"Can bitcoin hit $60K by Monday"
No.
Here is why.
https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Again all you need to look at is "Aunt Flo" (Bod reference - if you know what I'm talking about then you are probably as old as I am)
$323m NET in flows yesterday - another good day, but Grayscale is dumping again. -131m,-174m and -150m last three days. Clearly they have started slowly drip feeding the Genesis $1.6b which at this rate will take up to 2 weeks to churn through.
This is what is holding bitcoin at $52k. I mean its all very positive if you think about it, another poor inflation print which impacts risk on assets coupled with continued grayscale dump >$100m a day and still bitcoin is STILL not dropping.
You might get some bitcoin buying for the spot ETF's from yesterdays action over the weekend but Sunday I would have thought would just be the normal inflows on the exchanges which might get swamped by the Grayscale dump which of course is not tied to trading days only like the ETF's. So I doubt $60k is likely and just keeping ~$52k level for me is a win.
All in all though bitcoin OTC availability is drying up and Grayscale should almost be done with significant outflows by end of Feb. One hell of a supply shock is coming and demand is looking strong for the foreseeable - there is no getting away from that - but whether Argo is the best way to play this, I'm not sure. The closer we get to the halving and bitcoin is not double where it is now makes Argo's future more and more precarious.
Could Argo get to 25p or even 30p if bitcoin suddenly rips - probably - but at this point it really is like playing a game of chicken. Personally think there are less stressful ways to play this bull run.