Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
agreed SW - back in below 4p - market seems to forget there was a placing at 6.6p in Jan, the guys who stumped up £600k for that know far more than me about AYM's prospects, v happy to be able to buy in at a 40% discount them , and with Copper now at new highs - the market will wake up, just need patience.
SW , appreciate your inputs - you haven't commented on the discounts to spot metal prices and the fact that the NPV doubles if spot metal prices are used. Is the discount used industry standard or are they being more conservative than they need to be ?
agreed- this could well be the low, lets see.
Interesting to watch greed (yesterday) and fear (today) so close together, just what the market makers want. Many seem to miss the statement in the RNS that using spot metal prices more than doubled the NPV of Case C , showing how geared AYM is to metal prices. Copper up 2% today, Labrador PEA incoming and we are back to where the RNS leaked at 1pm Friday - added some at 7.26-7.4, this will be backaobve 10p by the end of the month. Hooley, who is never one for hyperbole was "incredibly encouraged", he knows a lot more than I or anyone else on this board about Parys and 100% is not a b/s merchant.
remember someone bought a truckload on Friday pm on a presumed RNS leak, no doubt they unloaded all those this morning. Add in LT investors top-slicing then it not a surprise to me, this will settle down, PR next couple of weeks will be good and we'll chop up and down on the way to 15-20p by February for me.
thanks for replying, I hear what you say. We are coming at it from different angles and I don't think we are actually that far apart in view. Is AYM in a hugely better position than it was in November both in Parys and Labrador ? Not in doubt. Is that fully reflected in the share price ? That is the $64,000 question, you know my view, but only time will tell.
"Using the higher current January 2021 metal prices and exchange rate would
double this Case C NPV10 to $238 million (GBP176 million)". This gives a handle on how geared the mine is to metal prices, not been given the weight it deserves on here imo.
interesting take SW, always interested to hear both sides. For me though you miss out what is priced in at a market cap of £19 mill, plus Labrador PEA to come in a few days plus Sweden as well. Sure its not for widows and orphans but seems that there's an awful lot more upside than downside at this price - and that's what matters to most investors.
easy to forget it was trading at 7p at 1pm on Friday.....before the clear leak of the RNS.
spot on post Brentharg - this will be close to 20p by the end of the month, it won't get there in a straight line though.
it will take a good couple of weeks for the big players to digest and react to this huge news given the illiquidity of AYm. Expect multiple surges and selloffs to shake people out, 20p by the end of the month for me, it will be a lot higher for sure.
"Conclusions
Anglesey is incredibly pleased with the results of the QME Optimisation Studies
and the Micon PEA. This PEA demonstrates that Anglesey Mining's Parys Mountain
project is much more substantial than previously considered; that it has a
larger mineable resource base; can support a longer mine life and can generate
significantly enhanced financial returns even at metal prices well below
today's levels. "
Hi Jimmy - nice summary, agree with pretty much all of it - except the TSF, which if they can go down the 3rd party route, could be monetised without Goldplat expenditure - sure it would mean some profit-sharing with the 3rd party but there's £150 million of Gold in there and Goldplat's market cap is only £12 mill. So even allowing for costs and recovery rates there should be enough profits to transform the share price up to 15p this year, like you say.
nothing available to buy, except at huge premiums, someone knows.
no worries Pablo. If Gold was selling off I think a Kili fall through of the deal would be a negative, given that this would make selling to another party tricky - but as long as Gold stays over say $1800 its pretty irrelevant to me - the fact that GDP managed to improve the terms of the deal tells you everything you need to know, there must be interest from others, why else would Papillon agree to pay more ?
loans are repaid only from Kili tailings - so no risk for Goldplat and also indicates a degree of commitment from Papillon as if they were to withdraw then they lose this $400k cash. Also the fact that the terms have improved suggests that another buyer is sniffing around (otherwise where would GDP's leverage be ? ). Finally there is the Gold price, even Kili at $1950 must be v profitable. But none of this should really affect the GDP share price - the drivers are the Recovery business (we are currently on a p/e of 4) and the TSF ( £150 million resource of Gold). We will see 15-20p this year imo based on this, as long as the news on TSF recovery rates is as expected.
yep - so if you strip out Labrador, paying 8p now is equivalent to paying 1.8p for AYM - that is crazy - of course it assumes LIM doesn't go back down, but we should really be comfortably above 10p right now. AYM traded 9p in December when Labrador was only worth 1p per AYM share....
so Parris Mountain and Sweden in the price for almost nothing - AYM is cheaper than it was in October at 2p if you strip out Labrador.
92c the high now, that's about 6p per AYM share from my back of the envelope
82c trades - that close to 6p per AYM share, mental.