Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Will have to hope they get a good offer during the FSP
Not in the strongest position cash wise, but it has fallen from 150p down to 5p so someone might see value in their tech, if they can prove that they will be profitable in 2 years and if someone can use / find value in their Optimers / Aptamers technology (which is a binding drug delivery style technology) then they might be able to find two bidders that can edge each other up
Very difficult situation still but a little bit of hope for shareholders, if the above is in any way rampy I apologise as this is high risk due to the cash position which could ultimately still wipe out holders, I've took a small punt simply because they are doing an FSP and I am sure they wouldn't have even bothered if they didn't see some value, although ITS did one and it came back a disaster if you recall (£500K they sold it for in the end)
Shame they can't announce who the collaboration is with, like ONDO previously and ACT today (both done over 150%, ONDO 300%+) by partnering with large players, if we are truly with a leader in the shipping industry, then the valuation will soar, yet nothing mentioned so the SP remains depressed... hopefully the company will not miss another golden opportunity to create value.
Hmm you may be right
we own 80% of HyProMag, but Cotec will get a 50% stake in the US sub directly (not via Maginito) so correct would end up being 60/40 in favour of Cotec
I can live with that but thanks for pointing it out!
Gallmat unsure if you intentions are genuine however will provide you with some information (and for anyone else who is looking to invest)
The IIR as of June 2022 was 31.5% with an NPV of $551m USD
Of course prices have declined, albeit the IRR and NPV would not have been against current spot but the anticipated spot at the time of production (adamas et al)
However due to market forces, the initial capex required may have also decreased $277m
NdPr for example was 100% higher last June, but in June 2021 it was actually lower than it is today - so I dont buy that falling RE prices, which are still almost 100% higher vs 2019/20, is off-putting to strategic investors - what I do think is off-putting is the entire macro environment, the costs getting this to production, debt is expensive, energy is expensive, supply chains are still constrained and Malawi has a concerning inflation problem (albeit requires more FX)
With all that being said, what I think you are truly missing is the NPV for HyProMags Pilot Plants
I cant recall what interview it was precisely, but if you go through recent Cotec presentations, Cotec suggest that each plant in the US will cost $15m and have an NPV of $85m+ (USD)
Now that's profit! (and we now own 100% of HyProMag, 80% of the vehicle and 50% of all US revenue)
US is also zero cost to Mkango, Cotec are funding / arranging funding
Any reason why they cant name the partner?
I know there's always an NDA (remember the Bosch days) but hopefully they can name the partner in due course as at £2.6m cap they could do with onboarding some blue sky value and a partner like Maersk for example would really bring a lot of optimism
Agree bonker cracking volume over the last few days
buys seem to ramp up in the afternoon which I agree is odd, however likely ease of the gas in the morning, catch a few selling (someone offloaded at 10.60 so it worked) now nibbling around 11.25, hopefully we finish slightly up which would again suggest a large buyer is still afoot, 1.5p below placing (which was discounted by 20%!) and weve bought hypromag since! shocking valuation :-)
Pretty much
- MDA / License from Malawi leads to
- - JV and finance discussions / offtakes / strategic investment(tors)
Due date: Imminent (albeit delayed, but it is the largest commercial investment in Malawi in over a decade)
- HyProMag
- First commercial production (note big difference between production and commercial production)
-- Paves the way for fast rollout in other territories including the USA, Japan and Canada
-- Results from the current NdFeB samples being sent to OEMS
-- First revenues (100t pa ~$70 per KG at todays pricing)
HyProMag US (Due date before Y/E)
- Conceptual studies in the US
- Site Selection (Dallas TX being one already mentioned)
Again all of the above should be done before Y/E
If all are successful, then we should very easily see this share price double/treble by Christmas
Suspect we will see a large delayed sell later, hopefully clearing this frustrating seller who has got really lucky today to be fair as they would have been getting 7-8p without that presentation
Should be back to placing price at a minimum over the coming weeks (12.5p) ofc if the MDA lands or news from HyProMag in the short term, then all bets are off
Can only speak for Maginito after that interview but for me
4-6 months at least 2x (Maginito valuation ~£40m by Y/E)
I think we could then easily 4x that in 2024 with additional plants, OEM partnerships and rollout in the US, aka proving the scale vs the technology
Post 2025 all depends on competition and what percentage we own but should also be at the market maturity, if we do have three plants in the US and create actual magnets for the industry then you should be looking at 10x in the next 2-3 years very easily
Buyout then takes you to 20x etc.
Loads of highlights CB I will write them up and post later
In short, the results of the UK is key for global scale up, lots of governments and oems interested
Various oems supplying us with recycle e-waste in the UK
results expected early Q3 (which I think is Q4 for us UK folk aka Oct/Nov)
Said multiple times the UK plant is going very well, derisking to increase value
In 6 months said the value of Maginito should increase considerably as we can then use the results of the pilot plants to expand in the US, specifically mentioned Texas/Dallas
Also not just processing RE's and creating the alloy powders but will be setting up a magnet manufacturing site so we become the one stop shop for EV / magnet demand etc.
Https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/23/07/ac33177634/cotec-holdings-corp-announces-presentation-at-emerging-growth-conference
Odd same day as ours, albeit during market hours
Q+A is much needed, SH need to know why this has been delayed by 12 months and why the delay is beneficial to shareholders (without giving away anything sensitive to negotiations of course) without that information the SP will continue to drop to a level where it is simply only supported by the face acquisition value of HyProMag
What can also support the SP is more precise timelines, they already missed one deadline, they said they would have the projects for the three US plants identified in H1 2023 (Cotec missed this deadline) albeit not too fussed as it was a short deadline and I am confident they are making good progress, plus UK and EU is more important firstly as this proves the product and commercial aspect of the technology, as per above more precise timelines and and update on the progress here would be good (vs just saying H2 2023 since we are in that period now)
OK, unbelievably frustrated but here is my view
Current market cap £23m
HyProMag 80/20 ownership with Cotec - current face value of ~£15m (so £12m net to MKA)
- we can argue about the valuation of this, cotec have brought a lot to the table and financed us for 12 months, we have two fully funded plants and three projects, with potentially three more in the US, the value we can add to this 'face' value entity is astronomical as we have already proven when we took a 42% stake for £500K
Milestones
- commercial NDPR H2 2023 (will double the valuation as it will then be proven)
- testing with auto manufactures in powerful magnets (will double it again and likely 4x from initial stage, as will be proven for a target market)
- Scale up (here is where the 10x to 100x comes into play, minus dilution along the way)
That leaves £10m face value for Songwe, which is around 2% of its NOV, you are not going to find a construction ready project even in the worst corners of Africa for that price, period (its already had $15-20m spent on just the DFS which was a success)
Whatever is causing the delay has knocked potentially ~£25m off the market cap here - however as it is a mining project, the material stays in the ground (not like technology which can be replaced or become outdated) aka the value is still there, albeit a drop due to macros impacting spot prices / basket prices
As much as id like to move on, selling the project during a very bad climate when we dont really need to sell it (we just raised funds only 3 months ago, £100K from the CEO) is exactly what Malawi and any potential buyers want us to do, to feel the pressure and let it go for cheap because the SP is declining and we are running out of funds
So my advice, as frustrating as it is, is to hold firm even if it takes another year - as investors we need to accept that this was and still potentially is our flagship project, its worth a small fortune IF/WHEN fully funded and construction begins, imagine we offloaded it for £10/£20m only to see a company like Lynas pick it up and make the projects we all envision in 2025/26, imagine NdPr and basket prices do rise as Adamas et al predict and we offload it today at a bargain price? That is not the BoD I have backed for several years, thats not the BoD that found Talaxis and got them to invest $14m in the project and take a 33% stake (now 29% in Mkango), its not the BoD that found Julian Treger and Braam Jonker, collaborated with some of the best mining experts in the business, who have a clear vision and track record of creating enormous value, its not the BoD that found a gem in HyProMag and worked a 42% stake for £500K before making arguably the deal of the decade taking the rest of it for £5m or thereabouts, its not the BoD that has found nearly £10m in EU/UK funding for the same technology
For a small minnow, we have tremendous value
Interesting appointment for a £3.8m market cap company
Mr Duval's experience in high-level transactions includes providing structuring and capital advisory to major groups including music giants Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group, as well as Oak View Group, a global sports and live entertainment development and investment company. He has also provided structuring and funding for European football transfers with an aggregate value over $2 billion, with clients including top-flight clubs Barcelona, Manchester United, and Real Madrid. Separately, he has co-created and co-structured digital IP deals with leading footballers, including Neymar da Silva Santos Jr and Lionel Messi.
Certainty has a lot of contacts and experience, should be good for Guild, especially the growing academy
Add that to the Dutch fund TR1 last week and fundraise out of the way, certainly being set up for success
Agree BoD need to take some serious action now as every month this contract is delayed, its costing us money
If we need to raise again to fund ongoing costs in Malawi, this will not look good
The project has been ready for 12 months, the Malawi government for whatever reason (FX in the country?) have stalled this project for far too long, multiple articles suggest internally they are conflicted as one says the MDA will be signed by X date and another says there's an issue with FX etc.
Personally, at the current valuation of 10p, I have completely written off the Songwe Project (ofc should the MDA land and License it will be worth at least a multiple from here) and 100% focussed on the recycling tech, however we have a very valuable asset and it is extremely frustrating to see that this delay has now caused the market to almost completely discount it (if we lost Songwe how much could you seriously discount the SP from here? Not more than 30%) whereas in the past it was all we had (prior to 2022) sitting on a valuation 2-3x here
Think we are all past the point of being patient now, being patient from this point on is just downright financially irresponsible, for whatever reason this has taken far too long and action needs to be taken, or at least update us on what the delay is as it could also be something positive (possibly investment from the US / EU etc.)
Looks really GOOD here
Total cash £38m vs £29m market cap
£2m to be paid to Ofgem et al so lets say £36m
Just made an acquisition which on the face of it looks pretty good (500K capex there)
Strong first half of the year, they are clearly profitable and generating cash even with as many caveats as you can throw in
Fully hedged for Q3 and 50% of Q4
Onwards to £3 a share
Very good raise IMHO, not much discount and not much dilution, gives them a runway to try and land some sponsors over the summer and sort out the finances
First concern obviously being the BitStamp loss which kicks in FY 2023/24 (so fine for now, but have to replace it ASAP) they started well signing Hummel for £700k/3yrs but that only dents it down to ~£1.265m (vs the £1.5m loss via bitstamp) so many more sponsors needed
Any idea what is happening with Subway? That expired in March 23, suspect a 'pay as you go' month per month deal is in place for now until they agree a longer term deal?
If they could increase the subway deal a bit that would help, even 10% - the brand has grown considerably so they might be able to charge north of £1.5m+ PA for this now
Bod have 3 months to delivery some solid sponsors, they have bought themselves much needed time, lets hope they do it - have taken a position as I do really like the company and the new BoD have done a very good job to date slashing costs
Cotec just announced their initial $2.1m in MagIron is now worth $25m, more than the entire cap of their holdings company
These guys are very serious, imagine in 6-12 months when HyProMag gets re-valued!
They've got four investments and one of them has just done a ten bagger, bet against the others at your peril!
https://www.accesswire.com/761989/CoTec-Holdings-Corp-Increases-Investment-in-MagIron-Following-Significant-Increase-in-MagIron-Valuation