Member Info for Glasshalfull

Just background to the increasing mkt over-reaction to any even mildly bad news, or in BAB's case, just decent not astonishing figures - Sunday Times Business, page 4, article about the auto systems currently in place exacerbate any movement, ie any downs initiate more selling which initiate more selling etcetc, hence the amount of volatility about. It cites Next & Centrica, but you can name a few major companies inc. BAB. There's another article by (presumably) ace businessman Luke Johnson saying that 'the days of valuing a company on it's fundamentals are over', so I'm obviously clueless these days, hence holding such a major loss. And a letter from a guy who put �2k into Carillion and watched it vanish whilst being regularly reassured by the board and brokers about the order book and the health of the company. I still, at the mo', think BAB is not hiding anything but to say I wish I hadn't done my homework on the fundamentals and bought in, a lot, at �9, is my understatement of the year.

Bloody fat finger.... market 'sentiment' and I understand brokers take a view about the economy but surely, maybe my ignorance, the prime source of info for share price projections must be not sentiment, a vibe, but fundamentals, order books etc , so... how can these various recommendations be so different, it can't be just a feeling about a share surely, these guys must be qualified to read balance sheets etc. Serious question because I don't understand it.

I see Morgan also went overweight on Centrica. Another brilliant call. Serious question: nobody forces anybody to buy whatever shares they buy but naturally one looks to informed opinion wherever you can, I keep hearing about market 'sentiment,

It won't open, on my tablet anyway, I assume it explains that there's a 94% upside to BAB share price, hence their projection of �13.65. That would be fab but .. when? I'm 71.

I just checked comments in the FT, Telegraph & Times and they all read more negatives than I did into Bethel's statement yesterday, particularly on Brexit and the slowing of defence orders, but, my ignorance, I thought surely that was already priced in, it's been a given for months. Two mentioned exit from the ft100 also being priced in now.

So.. Morgan says �13.65, Citigroup �6.60, within a couple of days, both professional outfits with expertise and insight, one assumes from the money they earn. You work it out. They're a joke.

It seems none of these brokers recommendations are worth anything any more, positively dangerous actually in my case ( down bigtime on a 12 'strong buys', 2 'buys', no 'neutrals', no 'sells', share over just six months), ok my problem but you wonder, what do they base their projection share price on? I can't believe they've all got an agenda, or just hopeless, they earn a fortune, there must be some rigour to their research, - boardroom, order book, bids on the go, debt, economic climate etc - but why then are they a) so different to each other, just days apart sometimes, and b) often now so wrong. As I've said here, I've loved trading for many years but, roughly since the referendum it's a raffle, too crazy for me now.

Yup, interesting - and unnerving, because I realise that these days I don't understand many rises/falls at all; I've different shares and they seem to bounce up n down with no relation to big trades/news/projections, it seems all whimsical eg Babcock, which on all data, fundamentals and order book (that's actually money in the bag) etcetc should be at least �2 higher - so lots of doings inside the mkt now that I've obviously no clue about, it's more like a casino and I've never wanted just a gamble, takes the satisfaction out of it.

Yup, interesting - and unnerving, because I realise that these days I don't understand many rises/falls at all; I've different shares and they seem to bounce up n down with no relation to big trades/news/projections, it seems all whimsical eg Babcock, which on all data, fundamentals and order book (that's actually money in the bag) etcetc should be at least �2 higher - so lots of doings inside the mkt now that I've obviously no clue about, it's more like a casino and I've never wanted just a gamble, takes the satisfaction out of it.

Isn't the devil in that last sentence - 'subject to uncertainty' etc - so doing their best to mantain an optimistic outlook about future trading, meeting debt etc, but if the economy/sentiment/margins go further south are they strong enough to survive? The business I was in had to cut margins so tight because online companies with negligible overheads could easily undercut so we had no 'going wrong' money, any contingency for poorer trading. Very pleased to see an improvement this morning - the market is so volatile and hard to fathom these days and even with all possible research we never really know what's round the corner, so chin up.

One thing I have learnt over the years is that, despite companies good projections, decent divi, solid, well run etc (why I'm in so heavily at �9), the market, by definition, is never wrong - there's something us outsiders don't know, the Ultra association and nerves about defense cuts (the order book is good) don't seem, in my opinion or maybe my ignorance, to be enough to precipitate such a sharp drop.

There must be more to this than the Ultra association and worried about future defense spending - I read that the order book is very healthy - this seems specific, surely there can't be a profit warning coming after such a positive statement in Sept? As always, what don't we know? I've traded for a great many years but these days I'm starting to feel like a mug.o

I'm assuming, hoping - I'm heavily in here - that it's yet another over-reaction by association, this time to Ultra's 21% drop this morning due to a problem with a US contract but, again, that has nothing to do with Babcock. I've invested in shares for 40+ years but there now seems to be less and less sense to much of it, which puts us in casino territory.

There's some big buys, eg �800k+, after hours too, I'd be surprised if DC. doesn't open up tomorrow, even have a good few days; as I've said before there's probably some money in this share over the next month's, but long term I fear the worst. But I was wrong to buy 'em, could be wrong again.

The reason I bought in, & heavily at, I even hate saying it, 346p was because I, then, believed that brokers recommendations have some semblance to informed intelligent research, ie at the time, last January, 12 'strong buys', 2 'buys', 2 neutrals and no sells. Based on what, I can't now imagine - this expert advice, their occupation, presumably what they do best, is a complete and hazardous waste of time and to call them just incompetent is being polite, and probably naive - remember, CEOs, lawyers & brokers get paid whatever. And I don't see how a 7% divi could possibly be justified for long in present circumstances. Just venting and, of course, just one opinion.

I want to be wrong - I'm holding a major loss - but why would Amazon spend to get a High St/retail park etc presence (and probably a less advantageous tax position) when their whole huge success story has been based on customer ability to pick/choose/ buy from an armchair. And I take the advice & info point but aren't people more clued up these days, particularly in tech areas. I also fear the so-called management's silence is telling - if this constant share drip was wholly inappropriate, one of them would have made some excuse to make a statement to reassure, surely. Or maybe not - we're all whistling in the dark really but I think another profit warning and/or divi cut more likely. I've both made and lost money in the market the last 30+ years but I've never felt so in the dark before and I fear this one might be a real dilly; fingers crossed.

But only forecasting, not making, 350m a year, which I fear might be reduced, even with Xmas looming; I'm no doomie, I hope, but isn't this business model becoming a bit yesterday and unless something changes radically ie their online presence becomes a major factor, I don't guess the price will recover much - the view that it will sooner or later even zero has been expressed here a few times. I had Balfour Beatty back from the dead but they actually build things, DC. simply take a cut and sell on. I hope I'm wrong, obviously.

Yes, it's just occurred to me that I've visited twice in the last 2 months to look/see the vibe ( and have to say, both times pleasantly surprised and relieved, a bit, to see how busy the tills were) but that's because we're getting so little feedback from the people actually in the know, ie the management, not the brokers. I've been in this cellar once before but then I didn't feel stranded but I do with this lot.

I'd love to think that, I'm �50k down on DC. but just 11,000 shares is window dressing, or a tax situ, for a director, surely. I'd be very interested to know if there are (many) short positions on DC, I can only see one

I did the same thing as Davielad - as one of the mug punters who bought in DC. at 346 on overwhelming 'strong buys' by so-called experts ie brokers - who probably based their expectations on either what their respective companies would like to happen or a nice lunch - I was half expecting, based on the current share price p/e, a half empty space with willing but unhelpful junior staff etc, however it was busy with customers actually buying stuff and the couple of staff I spoke to we're very well informed and told me how busy they'd been. Cheered me up. A bit.