RE: Outlook....2 Feb 2022 18:34
Phil,
If I were to buy only one of the two now, it'd most certainly be PUBM over MGNI. As I imagine you're aware, PUBM own their own data centers, their labor is much cheaper (India), and they have fabulous organic growth...but there is one caveat, they're late to the CTV game. Yes, last Q showed 7X YoY growth in CTV, but when they don't break out the numbers, you know it's because they're starting from a very small base. MGNI may have earlier adopter CTV advantage, but that will play itself out over the coming years. MGNI's relatively massive debt has me more than a little concerned. This is a distinct disadvantage vs PUBM, especially in a rising rate environment, which is why it's been punished so mercilessly lately.
I've been in MGNI since it was Rubicon project. I started to question MGNI's value vs the value of PERI when it was in the $7s. I sold it up to $18.50ish in my account, and 21.50ish in one of my brother's accounts. Of course it ran to 64 or so in the months following that, but the shares I now have are free and clear, with $105,000 extra cash, so I am pretty philosophical about my horrible selling (I am the world's worst seller).
The stock I sold was in my Roth IRA account (totally tax free), so I owed nothing in taxes. I sold ca 30,000 shares in that account, which afforded me to buy almost 35,000 shares of PERI in my tax free Roth IRA.
I've been nibbling on PUBM, but don't have much Money left after I bought 30,162 TRMR ADR units over the last few months (OK, I don't have any Money left). That tells you where I believe the value lies. I hope for a stellar report from MGNI later this month, after which I plan on taking profits in MGNI and buying more PUBM if the price / valuations line up. I'll bite the bullet and pay the taxes if that's the case. At least I have until April 2023 to pay.
For tax purposes, my cost in MGNI is in the low $3 area, so I can't complain too much...until it's time to pay long term capital gains taxes, because all I have left are in my regular (taxable) account.
I think TRMR and PERI still offer by far the best value at these levels...of all my ad tech stocks. By far.
Of course that can change in the blink of the eye with one bad conference call / bad guidance.
Note: Laura Martin conference calls with MGNI. During one of the calls she was gushing so much I thought she was doing Michael Barrett (CEO of MGNI). I swear her panties needed changing after that call. I was blown away it was so bad.
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