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The P2b results were undisputedly fantastic and underscores the good work done on the whole XF platform - 99.5% efficacy bodes well not only for success at Phase 3 trials of XF-73 Nasal but also the recently announced work on XF-73 Dermal. The potential for Destiny Pharma is massive but it is also long term. I think a number of investors have taken the opportunity to take profits (for example I've been holding since 50p last summer and took my gains a couple days ago) while others will be waiting to invest closer to the next catalyst events (as is also the case for me).
It's worth remembering that drug development is a lengthy and costly process. The next step for XF-73 is Phase 3 trials and this will require further financing. It will be in the minds of investors that the Board is likely to come back to market for further funds. Last time this happened was November 2020 when the company successfully raised funds for NTCD-M3 acquisition. The share price dipped from a high of 110p to 65p for about a month before recovering.
There are not many other drugs being developed to fight AMR bacteria, certainly not that many which investors can get exposure to. So you've either got to be patient with your investment or time your future investment to perfection. The conundrum for Destiny investors right now is the classic argument between "time in the market" vs "timing the market". All that said, what is beyond argument is the long term potential of Destiny Pharma.
I have just posted some Destiny Pharma research notes on Reddit. For anyone interested, here is the link:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UKInvesting/comments/maisw8/destiny_pharma_dest_uk_biotech_upcoming_phase_2b/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Absolutely excellent from DEST this week. Share price drifted down over past few weeks, MMs flushing out the weak holders I think. Now we've seen a 50%+ share price increase in five days and potentially closing the week out at a price 20% higher than the previous all time high.
The news releases have also been interesting. Great news that CSO Dr Love has been invited to join UK Covid-19 taskforce, further underscoring his credentials. Also the work of XF Dermal seems to be gathering momentum. Data lock for XF-73 trials confirmed and looking forward to the webcast in less than a fortnight's time where Board will report on the findings.
I am half expecting Board to announce partnerships alongside the financial results on 14th April. So far the partnership with CMS looks to have secured the Asia-Pacific market, hoping to hear about a partnership for lucrative US market as well as maybe Europe.
So much to look forward to here! Well done to all holders and good luck for the upcoming P2b results.
Positive RNS early today. Covid-stock hunters will no doubt zero-in on the contracts with University of the West of England (UWE) and South Gloucestershire Council (SGC) for the booking of Covid-19 Lateral Flow Tests (LTFs). It's really interesting the Board has only just made this announcement when INHC's tech was in fact being used back in Christmas - this suggests to me there might be other product developments and contracts going on which we may only learn of when the Board releases a Trading Update (possibly in April) or the Full Year Report (possibly in June).
I would encourage investors to look past the Covid-news though. The UWE and SGC contracts are great, the deployment of Induction Switch at Nightingale Hospitals is also positive. But INHC is working on so much more than Covid related products.
Flagship product Induction Switch is a smartphone-based messaging tool which conforms to NHS patient information sharing guidelines and has significant market penetration: the Board states more than half of UK doctors use the app. The app has several user levels: L0, L1, L2, and L3. L0 and L1 are free to use. L2 and L3 are paid for by the institution.
INHC has other products too. Microguide is an app-based resource used by doctors and GPs as reference for subjects like antimicrobial resistant bacteria. Zesty is an online platform/portal that has recently teamed up with NHS tech-supplier Cerner and Apple to provide patients at Milton Keynes Hospital with access to and control of their medical information.
Of course I am summing up these products, there is so much more to them than what I can write here.
The Board is made up of the same team that built and sold the successful DrugDev platform. And it's worth noting that a whopping 80% of INHC shares are held by the Board or Institutions (33% owned by Directors in fact, talk about skin in the game). I expect the time for marketing the company to investors will come in the not too distant future, but in the meantime the Board seems to be busy building their products.
I've spent these past few weeks building my position here as I anticipate the company will be flying within the next 12 months and do even better in the years ahead. I encourage other readers to conduct your own research on INHC, you may well then understand why I am so bullish on the company.
@Dan indeed if we are not already there then we do seem to be fast approaching inflection point. Phase 2b results should be out within the next few weeks. The Board likely already have positive feedback from clinical trials which explains the recent increase in promotion of the company at investor forums and editorials.
@fallingknife I'm happy to be of help to you. As Dan has already pointed out, there are some excellent posts and informative links here. If you would like to get a better understanding of Destiny Pharma, XF-73 and AMR then I encourage you to go through the threads. You are right to suggest that anything related to Covid will raise the company's profile - probably a calculation the Board itself made when they added SporeGen to pipeline. But most informed investors will recognise the main "play" here is AMR. Destiny currently benefits from a surfeit of informed investors which will hopefully help insulate the share price from the wild swings and volatility that come with speculative money. It is my hope the Board will continue to attract smart money rather than speculative money.
I believe AMR bacteria will rank right alongside climate change as the greatest danger for coming generations - so through my investments I am putting my money where my mouth is.
I believe the financial year ends in December so possibly a Trading Update may be imminent. @colonelnilvag offered a reasonable deduction: the share price has been held back by the Nahab share sale.
Regardless, its nice to see Proton catching up with rises seen at other renewable firms.
@fallingknife looks like you may have entered into DEST at the top of the recent share price move, unfortunately it seems your timing was not quite apposite. However, you stated you were seeking to top up at 110p, this morning's fall to that level will have presented you with that opportunity, I hope you were able to avail yourself of this.
I agree with @Liam about share price movement so far this week: several investors are likely taking profits and/or are derisking their positions.
@fallingknife, on your other points:
- XF-73 is not a nasal medicine, referring to it as such suggests it is designed to treat a nasal disease.. It is in fact a nasal application gel which is being developed to prevent the spread of post-surgical MRSA. A key feature of XF-73 is the limited resistance bacteria can develop against the drug. As an investor, it is important to understand Destiny's XF platform is designed to combat the growing global AMR threat - this is the company's USP.
- The Covid-19 preventative therapy is being developed in partnership with SporeGen and Liverpool Uni. Given the ongoing pandemic this aspect of Destiny's R&D will unsurprisingly grab attention. However, Destiny's main focus currently is XF-73, followed by the recently acquired Phase 3 ready NTCD-M3. While the SporeGen product is a welcome addition to the pipeline, as an investor I would recommend against being distracted by its development at this stage.
- each investor has their own investment strategy and far be it for me to instruct anyone on their strategy. That said, you have invested into a company which has serious long term potential. You may make (or lose) some money day trading the stock but in my opinion you will only earn the reward if you take a long term position here.
Good luck to you in your trades.
@Barrya the proposed research institute at Oxford is not competition for Destiny Pharma's XF platform, or XF-73 specifically. Anti-mircobial resistance (AMR) can develop in all kinds of bacteria, not just XF-73's focus of MRSA.
In fact the founding of this institute is good news for the company - Oxford University and Ineos pumping £100m into an AMR research institute serves to underscore the work Destiny have been doing for over a decade now. This development further validates the investment choice Destiny holders have made. The company already has R&D partnerships with several universities on a variety of AMR studies including:
- Cardiff: AMR impact study
- Sheffield: bacterial and fungal ocular infections
- Aston: initial study on XF platform's impact against biofilms
- Liverpool: Covid-19 preventative therapy
To the best of my knowledge none of the aforementioned institutions have a dedicated AMR department, let alone institute. Imagine the impact on Destiny's profile if it were to partner with the Oxford institute in the future. This is excellent news. Below is a link to the article you referenced:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55710528
@Dan I've just reread that article from nature.com you posted a few days. The article does a great job discussing the business risks inherent in developing antibiotics. There is the fact that bacteria develop resistance to antibiotics, there is the burden of insufficient funding, there is the practical limitations of intravenous administration and much more in there.
And you are absolutely correct in pointing out these do not apply to XF-73. Firstly it's not an antibiotic. Further, in vitro testing demonstrated MRSA bacteria did not develop resistance to XF-73 after 55 exposures whereas same bacteria developed resistance after a handful of exposures to mupirocin (eg the soon to be discontinued bactroban). Also, with reference to issue of funding discussed in the article, Destiny has received State-sponsored "Push" funding and has access to further "Push" as well "Pull" funding; not to mention private funding in the form of placings and subscriptions.
No doubt a clinician would do a better job of analysing the technical aspects of the article and how it relates to XF-73 than myself. While the content of the article does not directly relate to XF-73 it is an insightful read on pharmaceutical development. I encourage those interested in Destiny Pharma to have a read of said article originally posted by @Danrh. I will repost the link here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02418-x
@Dan here's the link to the RNS on formulation I was referring to previously:
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/destiny_pharma_ltd/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=2241&newsid=1359810
It was positive RNS, however there was no mention of production cost. Not sure if I read that some where else or just misread this RNS the first time.
I got into ITM last year in February. I remember being down in the dumps about ITM when the pandemic and the resulting lockdown hit the UK in March. The price totally crashed and I thought I'd made an absolute blunder, sold 20% of my stake to keep some cash in reserve otherwise I stuck with the stock. Not in my wildest dreams did I foresee the kind of growth ITM has achieved in the interceding months. Just goes to show, if you've done your research then trust it. Now my only regret is selling that 20% back in April.
It's really pleasing to see so many informed and dedicated investors here. Oh, and so many happy ones too !
I've been holding Diaceutics since May 2020, its been a rocky ride but I'm glad I didn't offload my stake back in September. Comfortably in the blue now. Nice to see today's update and that the pandemic has not had the severe adverse impact on business the Board had initially anticipated ... good work on their part.
Excited to see where DXRX goes in the coming months. Good luck all investors :-)
@Dan: I was not aware of DEST participation in the JPM Healthcare conference, thanks for the heads up. That's quite a play by the Board, plenty of high brow investors there.
And thank you for sharing the nature.com article, I've got to reread it properly though on first read it does justifies Destiny Pharma's novel approach to fighting AMR bacteria. Will try and put some notes down after a second read.
With regard cost of production, I recall reading an RNS stating the Board had agreed a formulation of XF-73 with partner MedPharm which they felt was commercially viable. I'll try to find it and post the link.
FinnCap's target (dependant on successful XF-73 P2b) is 385p which is a Market Cap of approximately £230m. Hoping you're right about the £370m valuation, if my math is correct on current float that would be a 600p share price target :-)
@Dan, @David: regarding China Medical Systems (CMS), I do not believe any disclosures have been made on milestone payments as yet, could mean it is still to be negotiated. What I have read though is there are two aspects to the commercial arrangement with CMS: Milestones and Margin. Milestones I expect will be triggered at sales volume targets of XF-73 in the CMS region (comprises some of the most populous countries in the world including China, India and Malaysia). Destiny's Margin (or cut of sales revenue) has not yet been disclosed from what I can see. This will certainly be an aspect of DEST's future development to keep an eye on.
@Danrh I agree with you, positive results from Phase 2b trials will without doubt lead to a significant increase in the share price. Your assertion that Destiny's immediate future is binary I also agree with. Of course there is risk, there is in any stock. However, the reward significantly outweighs the risk for many reasons:
1) The Board of Directors and the Scientific Advisory Board have substantial experience and quality which should give confidence in the ability of both Boards to achieve the company's ambitions.
2) The appointment of a CBO at this juncture suggests the Board themselves are confident of XF-73 P2b trials and are preparing for the next developmental step.
3) Looking beyond a potential positive XF-73 P2b result, there is also the discontinuation of GSK's Bactroban which would otherwise have been XF73's main competition in combatting MRSA infections.
4) Today's £60m market capitalisation undervalues Destiny Pharma's position, given NTCD-M3 is Phase 3 ready and the progress of XF-73.
5) I will credit @David1951c in his previous post with making the good points about sufficient funding and 60% shareholding from institutional investors .
Because the share is - so far - under investor's radars, my feeling is those investors who are already vested will, in the not too distant future, be proven to be market foxes. As for those who are day trading the stock, in my view they are market squirrels who will come away with the acorn they see in front of them but miss the big pile of acorns behind the tree.
Our own individual circumstances as well as variables such as risk tolerance, time horizon, portfolio composition or available capital means it can’t ever be one size fits all. I for one would not want to judge anyone else’s strategy or risk tolerance. I’m sure most members of this board think similarly.
Possibly clueless was too strong a word, but I believe Dan was trying to express his surprise at investor sells. Imminent news, technical data pointing upwards and positive broker reviews all indicate holding onto DEST shares. From his comments, Dan clearly has great confidence in his research and experience, hence the incredulity. Likely no offence was intended.
In the end, it’s for each of us to assess our individual conditions and make calls accordingly.
@Dan I haven't had employment in pharma industry so I’ll defer to your experience on potential of future acquisition of DEST by Big Pharma. Hope you’re right, that would be massive for DEST holders.
I was lucky to get in at 50p a few months back and am glad that I wasn’t tempted to sell in November before placing. A sell at that stage would have netted me a great 100%+ return but like yourself I believe there is a lot more positive news to come.
I won’t dispute the potential for 700p+ here, but there are a few hurdles to successfully jump before that can happen, starting with XF-73 Phase2b tests and then Phase 3 tests for the same as well as NTCD-M3. Proof of concept as you put it. The potential here though is massive, as good a value stock as you'll find IMHO.
Closed out today 5.6% up. A few shareholders taking profits at the 100p/share level and others accepting a 10-20% return. Regardless, DEST should break through that 100p resistance in the coming days and move onto test a 160p resistance. This stock should be valued at closer to 200p, and pending successful Phase 2b trials should be in the 330p region IMHO. The coming weeks will tell whether the market agrees. GLA all holders :-)