The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Forgive my ignorance if I am missing something from these thoughts and how Chapter 11 and Cineworlds (possible/probable) plans take shape.
These current moves are to strengthen a very weak balance sheet and put the business I'm much better shape going forward.
So I am making some assumptions:
They will look to significantly reduce current debt from balance sheet.
In return lenders will end up with majority of business.
What will that be? Let's say effectively 90% so current shareholders will have 1/10 the holding they had!?
SP currently and for much of last 2 years has been very low (compared to prior levels)
Why? Well COVID and Cineplex didn't help, but they essentially added to the primary issue - debt.
Prior to Regal acquisition the SP regularly traded above £2 and often around £3 levels.
So....if we see this move wipe most/all debts, have a better portfolio of sites and subsequently a far more profitable company bottom line might we reasonably expect in time an equivalent SP equal to or greater than pre Regal debt times!?
So say £3+ equivalent, diluted X 10 we still see current holders at 30p + per share.
We currently have c. 3p.
Benefit of selling now!?
Bank a CGT loss to offset in other areas of that's of benefit to some.
Otherwise I am currently struggling to see much benefit in selling now as returns for probably all will be so negligible.
No cine...ma the night. There last night watching a horror. Or is that us living a horror in cine shares.
Seems regardless of chapter 11/bankruptcy or whatever we are pretty fecked as holders at prices we have. Big share dilution looks about our least bad outcome now.
Part of me tempted with the penny stock pint even for a quick flip. However just far to much (for my level) already been pumped into it.
So regardless of how likely or otherwise taking a chunk now would give back a lot of the losses I just cant make that move to pour yet more in.
Bring back the days when the appeal was our biggest concern.
Enjoy family time Bonks. That's the stuff that matters.
Past is past we made choices we did.
Don't know if you have been asleep the last 3 days Ian, bit I think it's reasonable to say we have had massive volumes these days and we all know direction the share price has gone.
Unfortunately.
I might not have a pot to p..1. ss in now, but great to know too guys are still here for each other .
Only needs a 50 bagger from here to see us all right ;-)
All hail Cub :-)
mountainous,
I will be beyond delighted if we as shareholders somehow come out of this.
However regards TR-1 we wouldnt have seen them yet as the volumes are today and previous 2 days.
We would/will only see them next week at which point as always it's too late for us small investors to make moves.
Tegop, those that were here c. October/November 2 years ago may also remember the headlines.
It's immaterial really and not going to trawl back couple years of news for someone else.
If you want feel free to look back.
The Guardian were one of those reporting it (like this time) I believe and as is sat Alix mentioned then also.
Nothing here matters when we have someone talk off ending their life and tens of thousands potentially jobless soon.
We still have some awful creatures gloating and goading.
Off out for bit fresh air.
We can but hope this is a terrible case of such.
Remember c. 2 years ago now we had similar reports we were going into bankruptcy and had appointed the exact same experts Alix partners!?
We came out of that with new money from banks and survived another two years with a wide range in share price.
It's very possibly not the case this time, but for the sake of the thousands of people that's livelihood depends on it I hope it is the case.
We can all go back to our jobs and family no matter the outcome.
ELON!!!! MEME APES, someone, anyone save us.
Money can be replaced a lost life can not. This has been an absolute disaster for many here (I have personally lost what is to me a great amount of money). It hurts off course, but ending life won't improve that.
Your wife would always target have you than any amount of money, assuming she actually cares for and loves you as any good partner does.
Maybe we will get a pack or a single biscuit for our now worthless shares.
Oh well we live and breathe another day.
No amount of money can replace that :-)
Where we all gonna chat sh..1 t now?
Tegop, between Q4 and summer we can't brush under the carpet Q1 (that wasn't exactly flying).
Now we have August - October another awful quarter.
Hell knows sammy.
However it does state measures (not all) are ones PREVIOUSLY disclosed.
So part the cost savings, strategic opening and closing sites.
There was for example the previously disclosed possibility of a listing of part/all of business on US exchange.
They had mentioned "I think" deleveraging current debt structure in the future also (but I thought that was at a point when business was better placed to negotiate such without shafting us).
They are in talks with more than one party also and I don't believe it is a done deal of one certain route out at this stage (yet).
Future uncertain as it has been for while I guess, but they seem to be at least reaching closer to a decision point.
£1.83 here we come ;-)
Sorry sections duplicated somehow, but hopefully can still get the jist.
"Cineworld is providing an update today on its current trading, liquidity position and capital structure and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Group. Despite a GRADUAL recovery of demand since re-opening in April 2021, RECENT admission levels have been BELOW expectations. These lower levels of admissions are due to a limited film slate that is anticipated to continue until November 2022 and are expected to negatively impact trading and the Group's LIQUIDITY position in the NEAR TERM.
Consequently, the Group has been taking PROACTIVE steps to ensure it has the balance sheet strength and flexibility to adapt to market conditions. This includes significant previously disclosed operational Cineworld is providing an update today on its current trading, liquidity position and capital structure and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Group. Despite a gradual recovery of demand since re-opening in April 2021, recent admission levels have been below expectations. These lower levels of admissions are due to a limited film slate that is anticipated to continue until November 2022 and are expected to negatively impact trading and the Group's liquidity position in the near term.
Consequently, the Group has been taking proactive steps to ensure it has the balance sheet strength and flexibility to adapt to market conditions. This INCLUDES SIGNIFICANT PREVIOUSLY DISCLOSED OPERATIONAL and FINANCIAL INITIATIVES to MANAGE COSTS and ENHANCE LIQUIDITY. The Group believes these steps are required to optimize its ability to MAXIMIZE ENTERPRISE VALUE as PART of the RECOVERY in the cinema industry."
In CONNECTION with these INITIATIVES, the Group REMAINS in ACTIVE DISCUSSIONS with VARIOUS STAKEHOLDERS and is EVALUATING VARIOUS STRATEGIC OPTIONS to BOTH obtain ADDITIONAL LIQUIDITY and POTENTIALLY RESTRUCTURE its balance sheet through a COMPREHENSIVE deleveraging transaction. ANY deleveraging transaction will LIKELY result in VERY SIGNIFICANT dilution of existing equity interests in Cineworld. "
My BOLD
Vis, Healthy always first so of that's what you needed to do fair enough.
For me (and maybe others still here, I dont know) there has been stress, possibly a number of times.
However, now and possibly before two days ago I have essentially written off this investment so I no longer have stress or a down side. While at the same time my shares are still there and however unlikely it now is one day I may wale up to some sort of return above current levels.
I fully understand getting out with even 10% of initial investment is on paper better than 0%.
However for me I can now only lose a very small % of initial investment so let it roll.
For the record my average is c.55p
." Mooky and israel have 35% ownership combined."
Tegop, no they do not. The fund looked after for their kids has 20%
What we dont know is movements of last two days massively trading (c.25% of all shares).
These "could" have been huge moves up or down by one or more of the main holders.
They raised c. $1bn when shut down and have burnt through most or all of that hence latest company comms.
Strike,
No I have not missed other point, however I am maybe not clear enough in what I have said as you seem to have missed it.
It's not "just" this quarter that I am saying is the issue, but it's the straw breaking camel's back.
It's pre pandemic debt levels added to during pandemic. Closures through pandemic and subsequent cash burn. Plex court case costs, current award (under appeal), regal dissenting shareholders cost, low levels of cash on hand with too few (strongly) cashflow positive months since re opening a year past April.
Companies short, medium and potentially long term difficult cash position has been well documented including by themselves in RNS updates and published accounts.
So, no I haven't missed others points and it's not "just" current quarter that's issue.
Danosour, nobody is talking about there being nowhere for studios to show their movies though.
The locations (along with every other cinema operators) will most likely be there for years to come.
They just might not be run by Cineworld, or at least maybe not by Cineworld with us shareholders having anything like our current stake in business.
This is different to studios having nowhere to show movies .
The company as it is is financially stretched and seriously up against it given current position and known quarter of very weak box office.
No conspiracy theories required.
Cruis,
Mind back to the Plex case. Mooky clearly had a different view from Nisan and Israeli.
In evidence it noted a few times how the more financially astute guys wanted to pull plug on deal, but Mooky wanted to still make it happen.
I can see similarities in this position now.
Whether he is a dreamer, liar or genuinely believes in a more positive outlook in life it's not for me to judge.
If being kind he probably/possibly hoped pretty much everything would go as well as it possibly could with minimal room for anything slipping.
We also know Nisan and Israeli had plans to at least seriously consider taking the business back private back then (so they have little to no regard for the too and men's of this world).