Member Info for Frankys

Will she or won't she finally chart breakout?

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Surely if Rachel Reeves appeases Trump by scrapping the deminimis tax break for small Chinese imports, this will be good for Asos and BooHoo?

How about Povlsen takes ASC and Ashley takes BOO?

No other explanation that I can see. People have been playing silly buggers with this and BOO for some time.

Quite a few trolls are the same person, trying to adopt convincing personalities, and failing.

Well I have held for a long term and consequently lost a packet. But I agree that Quindell might now be interested at the right time. But their results might have go gangbusters for the market to stomach it. If not Quindell, a Quindell wanabe? Helphire tried to do what Quindell is doing, but did it too soon and was scuppered by the credit crisis.

CORRECTION should be Stephen Oakley below and not Wardle who was a previous CFO

For what it's worth, and I am only reading between the lines, Cenkos might have a plan. They are brokers to HHR, QPP, Brightside Insurance etc. and Moore Capital seems to have holdings in HHR and Brightside. The institutions seem keen again on HHR. Cenkos probably played a role in bringing off the arguably good debt for equity swap. Helphire seems to be happy to be treading water and in no hurry to collect the Autofocus debt and now Ward and Wardle have decent share holdings. Everybody seems to be on board, so let's go!....................I just wish I knew where.

I personally do not believe that Aviva is interested in buying Helphire, other than as in investment by its fund managers. Maybe before it divested The RAC, but not now. It has held a stake for some time and has merely increased it as the company became debt free. I do however think that Helphire is now ripe for plucking by a company with a business model that can exploit Helphire's potential. The problem is that if Helphire expands it will run up debtors again, so to grow, somehow it needs to be part of a model where it does not have to pay until it gets paid!

My guess is £10 million. But it would not surprise me if the company says on Thursday something like 'the mediator is making progress in identifying quantum' rather than announcing any figure. The company might possibly also be awaiting ABS approval, but has not said this in so many words. So we might not be much wiser on Thursday. Where I hope we do see progress is business it has picked up through the demise of Drive Assist, and bad weather leading to longer hire periods. ie optimistic statements. Maybe also stating that fleet disposal prices have improved too. Hopefully the insurers are using kosher hire rate evidence now where necessary, which must improve negotiated settlements. Probably the Autofocus debacle has really cost Helphire hugely more than £10 million as it has allegedly cost Accident Exchange £130 million But my guess is that unless Accident Exchange succeeds in its action in tort for damage done to the business, which would take some time, £10 mill might be all that Helphire gets for now.

I am sure that the rising price of petrol has an effect on road use and therefore accident rate, with consequential freeing up of waiting times in bodyshops etc. thus reducing hire length as well as frequency. BUT I think in the past that rising fuel prices have been given by the company as a smokescreen when they have not wanted to explain other negative issues. For example, I don't think that the company has wanted to talk about competitive pressures. I think Helphire used to be the market leader, but it is now apparently number two. To keep its contracts it has probably had to pay more and more in referral commissions. I don't think that any recent drift in the share price is due to the slightly rising price of crude. The company needs to reduce its debt and improve its net margin somehow. Hopefully through some involvement in an ABS so it can make some decent margin on the personal injury work that comes its way. And hopefully in time, if someone is trying to buy market share, they will need to improve their own margin.

I remember years ago, Helphire loved a good legal scrap, (nearly as much as certain insurers!) Consequently the higher courts have given countless credit hire judgements, and you would have thought that by now the law would be well settled. But if you throw money at lawyers (as certain insurers still seem prone to do) you can argue almost anything. But I too have noted an apparently much more conciliatory approach from Helphire in recent years. It might not only be the cost? I hope it is because Helphire seemingly took the strategic decision years ago to get business from brokers and insurers by way of paying them commissions. The insurers are therefore the entities that operate at both ends of the business process. Helphire pays one insurer for the referral, another one (hopefully) picks up the tab. Helphire might be trading gingerly with the insurers over Autofocus as it needs their goodwill. I am afraid though that it will end up being 'how much do you think you owe us?' Anybody have a clue who the mysterious third party mediator is that has access to the allegedly 'dodgy' Autofocus disc?

Helphire's debt is still too burdensome, but debt comes with its role as a quasi bank. All credit hirers have substantial debtor books for this reason. Ai Claims bought by Quindell has substantial debt too as it is a credit hirer. But a credit hirer appended to a law firm under ABS could raise the net margin, and if the bank debt could be reduced by an injection of capital, maybe private equity, it might well be attractive to an acquirer? Or could even maybe merge with a private equity backed ABS approved law firm? Helphire must attract an awful lot clients who not only need a replacement car, but also a personal injury lawyer. These clients are going to be needed desperately come this April when solicitors will be banned from paying referral fees to insurers for PI clients.

I note that the AGM last November was held in Bath as it used to be. The previous two years it had been held in London. I wonder if it was allowed to return to its roots once the City types and banker types felt relaxed enough not to attend? (Assuming that they had done so when the AGM's were held in The City)?

I think that it has made a very substantial percentage loss on its Helphire holding. What once looked like a great growth story quickly turned sour around the time of the financial crisis. Helphire might be seen as a quasi bank as it gives credit whilst it waits for settlement from the tardy insurance industry. I imagine that if you are sitting on 29% it is not easy to dump it quickly, although I think Legal & General dumped quite a bit fairly quickly a couple of years back? I imagine that Invesco is now trying to extract some value from its investment, and most of us here wish it luck. King999 lets hope that Avril's work at HHR IS nearly done. Simon Paulton (another recovery/trouble shooter/strategist type) stood down last November, which I hope was positive!?

Yes! I wonder if Simon Poulton will now be appointed at Stobart as the new non-exec? Rodney Baker Bates has just stepped down at Stobart and was once Chairman at HHR. Neil Woodford probably likes to work with people he knows, as is usual in business.

Yes! again. Neil Woodford would probably want the new Executive Chairman at Stobart to prioritise a company capitalised at £330 million where she is an executive and he has an even bigger shareholding, than a £10 million company where she is a non-executive?

Yes! Let's hope it is the latter. Additionally, I can't help but feel that there is the possibility that a new wave ABS law firm might want to 'do a Quindell' and buy a credit hirer. Surely (at least for another couple of years or more) that would bring them lots of personal injury work, that they will no longer be allowed to pay for after this April. Admittedly, after the Competition Commission reports, credit hire referral fees could also be banned. If this does happen, wrapping up credit hire, legal services etc. and selling it as a package to insurers (as Quindell seems to be doing) looks to make sense. The only question in this scenario would be the price an ABS acquirer might pay. The premium paid for Ai Claims was not substantial. There are an awful lot of law firms (and others) waiting for ABS approval from the SRA. Is it possible that one of these could be waiting approval before pouncing? Private equity seems to be interested in backing some of these ABS outfits from things I have read in 'The Post'