Member Info for Fossy

My thoughts exactly. The fact that the RNS starts with 'Fml are PLEASED to announce the publication of their September 2013 newsletter' suggests that they intended this to be a very positive announcement. Little wonder they don't give information very often. I appreciate that investors would like some information regarding copper production and sales, but maybe they are holding that back for the investor presentation on 26th Sept. I don't believe production will have been great so far but I would be satisfied if they can achieve their 3000 tonne target for this year.

Having read yesterday's RNS now several times I clearly view the update in a more positive light than some investors who have decided to bail out today. Bad management in the past has probably set production back a year and added to the debt but the current CEO seems far more on the ball. The appointment of Adam Mooney in my view will be a game changer, providing, as he openly states, cash flow can be managed and capital investment made to remove bottlenecks in the production process. Investment in new stacking equipment capable of stacking to in excess of 8 metres would appear, from the RNS, to be the most urgent issue. I am no expert in extraction metallurgy but for me the big positives from the RNS were: - (1) the issues with low permeability appear to have been largely sorted (2) the utilisation of secondary sulphide containing ore to manage clay content presumably means that the total recoverable copper from the mine using the SX/EW plant has increased (3) control of the permeability issues has enabled pad 3 to be stacked to 4.2 metres with the possibility of increasing to 6 metres with modification to existing equipment. I believe the stack height is now the most crucial factor in achieving winter production. Laboratory tests have suggested that high agglomerate permeability can be maintained under loads equivalent to >10 metres stack height and it would appear that Adam's goal is for 8 metres. By more than tripling the original pad volume the benefits during the winter months would be enormous, as the heat capacity of the pad is tripled but the surface area for heat loss remains almost the same as for a 2.5 metre pad. The higher the temperatures within the pad the faster the chemical reactions, which are exothermic and generate more heat. A 4.2 metre pad may not allow production throughout the entire winter, but as stated will allow them to operate further into the winter period and restart operations earlier. Maybe they can increase that to 6 metres before the winter. (4) as the pad height increases the capex and Opex decreases proportionately with respect to tonnes of ore stacked. It's obvious that for an 8 metre high pad you've only got to excavate the pad once, line it once, etc. which then frees up equipment for other activities - sorry if i'm stating the obvious. It seems to me that thanks to Adam Mooney, the main technical issues are resolved or close to being resolved. There will always be room for further improvement. It's whether the company can get through this difficult financial period and make the necessary capital investment to upgrade equipment like the radial stacker. Surely with such progress on the technical front the $20 million loan, alluded to in a previous RNS should be forthcoming. Good luck to all invested here. With an average of around 3p I'm in for the long haul now.

Production restart and financial update. Expansion to 10,000 tpa this year and new leach pads - hopefully to enable production brought the winter months.

Refinancing of debt

Strange thing. A couple of weeks ago we had Tommybalder deramping - he/she had only ever posted twice and the post looks like it has been removed. Now we have 'colinner' doing a similar thing. Could it be that Colinner is Tommybalder re-incarnated, after all this is Colinners first ever post. Colinner, you are entitled to your opinion but you say "time to be finally out" so I would suggest that you follow your own advice and sell up (if indeed you have any shares) and jog on. Perhaps you will be able to buy back in if your prediction of 1.25p comes true. Personally I think you will have a long wait.

"Selling out the last of mine as soon as I can" you say, and then proceed to talk the price down. Does that make sense? These are your first 2 posts ever. Clearly another deramper on the scene hoping to get in at a lower price - so transparent!!

Yes, nice to see some decent buys. Hopefully we've found the bottom. I find it annoying that the quoted spread is wider than the actual spread so that buys appear as sells. We have 1.9 mill buys so far today by my reckoning.

I did e-mail the company a few weeks ago and suggested that they might consider the use of geothermal energy but no reply. I agree they need people with an understanding of the practical problems associated with producing in this climate.

Some thoughts on the winter shutdown........... the biggest challenge would appear to be maintaining the temperature inside the leach pads. The presentation shows they have now covered the pads with insulating material, which will help a lot as most of the heat will be lost through the surface. It is a fact that in most locations the ground temperature at a depth of 7 metres is constant throughout the year. I know they looked at doubling the pad depth to 6 metres, and this would seem to be the way to go, as you would have the same surface heat loss but with twice the volume of ore, and with the bottom of the pad being maintained at a far more constant temperature. The higher the temperature the faster the chemical reaction between the copper oxide and sulphuric acid, and as this reaction generates heat the benefits are obvious. Assuming the acid solution is constantly recirculated maybe they could use geothermal heat to warm this solution further??? There is a lot they could do and the more they can maintain the temperature in the pads the shorter the non-productive period. Without the shutdown this share would be flying. They could have made one of the four leach pads a 6 metre depth and tested it out this winter - why didn't they?

Currently quoted spread is 3.50-3.60, but actual spread is 3.50-3.52. Last 5 trades today (out of 6) are buys not sells. Are the mm's trying to deceive us into thinking there is selling pressure. If not why don't they quote the correct spread. Can anyone explain?

According to Rogbarry on iii one of Ambrian's areas of expertise is providing an advisory service on corporate takeovers

For anyone thinking all 12 trades today have been 'sells', current buying price is 3.66p - actual spread is within the 3.60-3.75 spread. I would guess that at least 7 of todays trades so far are buys totalling 292,000 shares

Sounds like they are already close to current 7000 tpy capacity if they can maintain >=18 tonnes per day - 18 x 365 = 6570 tonnes - and the process is still being optimised.

FML have announced additional funding for expansion of Benkala production from 7k to 10k tonnes per annum:- http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11309357

In my opinion the entire AIM market is very depressed at present - I guess we are in the tail end of a bear market. In most of the companies I am invested in, any good news has resulted in a negligible sp rise, as pi"s are desperate to take even the smallest of profits and the shorters quickly move in on any rise. Sentiment has not been helped by mm's who continually drop prices to trigger stops. The recent RNS did not give any information about production costs - hence the negligible sp rise, and some pi's who thought they were going to make a fast buck have sold up, bringing the sp down again. Even so I believe Erlan has done a great job getting into production, albeit 11 months later than he predicted in an interview in May 2011. It is worth looking at this interview again - see link:- http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/754/erlan-sagadiev-from-frontier-mining-says-frontiers-low-share-price-makes-no-sense-754.html He talks about the low share price of 4.25p back in May last year and about using a share buy back to increase the sp if necessary (3mins 26secs into interview). The FML sp appears to move on very little volume and it would not take much to move the price back up. Once income from copper sales is sufficiently high I believe a share buy back will happen, after all if Erlan is to sell the company eventually he needs the market cap to be as high as possible to get a good deal. Note that at the end of the interview he estimates a market cap of $2000m once in full production - that's about 16 times the present value.

Now 3.6/3.75. I've seen sudden rapid drops like this with other shares - just before good news. MM's trying to scare pi"s to sell low. Lets hope so

Keep up the good work. I have been watching your posts with interest as I'm sure many others have. Price now 4.10/4.25.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/754/erlan-sagadiev-from-frontier-mining-says-frontiers-low-share-price-makes-no-sense-754.html If you study the interview with Erlan Sagadiev (see link above) he states that the goal by 2015 is to have 30,000 tons of copper production with a value of $280 million per year, giving a net to bottom line of $150 million per year. Production is due to start in September this year with 10,000 tons production, which from the above figures I assume would give a net to bottom line of $50 million in the first year. My guess is that this would be sufficient to fund the next stage of expansion or they would wait until they have generated enough cash to expand. The expansion cost is unlikely to be as large as the initial setup cost as I would assume they would have built a factory capable of 30,000 tons output at the outset and it's just a case of buying extra equipment to upscale. There are a lot of assumptions there!! These are just my own thoughts and I suggest you DYOR.