Member Info for forfaiter

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-11927631/Metro-Bank-draws-plan-avoid-risk-taxpayers.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

All positive

"A further announcement concerning the physical receipt of the diamonds will be made on finalisation."

Your right I don not care what was said in in 2019......but I do care what was said in the recent results...

"The Company takes regular external advice on gas price forecasts. The base case uses the forward curve for near-term gas prices. The average gas price used in the review period is 130p/therm. Since the end of 2022 gas prices have fallen over 20%. This sustained fall in gas price during the review period would result in a covenant breach in the interest cover ratio. At the year end forward curve prices, no covenant breach was forecast. The Company's EUR 100 million bond is subject to covenants that are measured biannually in June and December, being minimum liquidity of EUR 5 million, net debt to EBITDA of a maximum of 2.5x and interest cover of a minimum of 5.0x, based on measures as defined in the facility agreement. The ratio of net debt to EBITDA at 31 December 2022 was 1.0 times and interest cover was 7.0 times. In the downside case, where gas prices are assumed to be 50% below the current forward curve, both the leverage ratio and interest cover ratio are forecast to be breached. In the event that a covenant is breached, an extension or waiver of this covenant would need to be negotiated with the Bond Trustee. The Directors, taking into account their assessment of Bondholders' interests and given the Group would pass the minimum liquidity test, believe this would be likely to be achieved, however it is not guaranteed."

Revenue of 18m per month? you are dreaming....what are the revenues now ? at production of 15.9mm per month at around 100p/therm and allowing for down time the revenue is around 3m a month at best with the bond costing about a 1m per month in fees with the covenants due to be tested in june.....the combined revenue of H1 and H2 is expected to be 42mm .....if and it is a big if it comes on line without any problems.......you say the price of gas is going to 150 a therm what happens if it goes back to 50p a therm which it was before the Ukraine crisis?......they will breach the covenants and they will have to obtain waivers or raise more funds....Liquidity will be tight after they pay 13m for the drilling of H2.....

Lower energy prices on the way if they are thinking of cutting the windfall tax?....increased revenues from H2... if it is successful could be offset by lower gas prices going forward.....the average price they achieved for gas in 2022 was 200p/therm......could be half that or even lower in 2023?.....

No I do not see it as a problem as I am sure if they did breach there covenants they would be able to negotiate a waiver until the revenue from H2 starts to flow through.....plus they have plenty of liquidity which is an important factor when negotiating a waiver to covenants going forward......

LOL,,,,,,,yes they are up today......back above the 100p mark which is positive......as I said before the crucial level for IOG is 65p at which level they will probably breach the covenants on the bond...which is tested in June....

The price of gas is at 96p/therm........the price of gas has to stay above 65p for IOG not to breach its bond covenants.....according toits going concern accounts.....

Positive results .....profitable business if you strip out the write downs....... on average production of 27mm at 200p/therm.....H2 to add 30 to 40mm if successful.....giving a total of 45mm to 55mm production for the year or maybe more....as a new investor not worried about the options announced today...but it does show a commitment to equity value going forward.....

Its now all about the cash situation with the lower gas prices and the lost revenue from ellswood and southwark plus the scheduled downtime for the drilling of Blythe H2......

Its worth looking at the Moram analysis from October 2022 where they assumed the NBP gas price at 280 a therm ....now half that.....and southwark and ellswood producing gas:

hxxps://moram.eu/iog-trick-or-treating-in-the-north-sea/

https://www.share-talk.com/vast-resources-shares-aimvast-diamonds-in-the-rough-my-cup-of-tea/

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https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/LSE-IOG/forecast/

In October 2022 they predicted gas flowing from A1 and A2 by the end of the year/early 2023 .....now they have no gas from those wells plus a lower gas price average going forward for future gas prices.....of course the gas price is relevant......when they have have covenants to maintain on the bond....H2 is vital for the company going forward and is no way guaranteed and is still 3 months away from production.......I question the whole validity of these gas fields they are drilling which are the left overs from the big gas producers from yester year.....not for the faint hearted...

True,,,,,but not all companies have IOG liquidity concerns....

From the presentation.......gas prices do not seem to be in IOG favour going forward,,,,,some of the gains in production from H2 could be lost in the lower gas price compared to the average price in 2022

• IOG 2022 average realised price of 203.5 p/therm, with
very high volatility
• Market recently stabilised in 120-150 p/therm range
- Mild winter
- High LNG supply (and Freeport restarting)
- Demand destruction
- High European gas inventories
• Forward curve prices NBP at >100p until 2026

If they secure funding and the SOA then this should increase the market cap of the company before they have to pay the claims via issuing more shares in june 2024.....1 for 19 will result in there roughly being 2.6 b in issue......with the claims paid and the company back in profit....what will the shares be worth then?....remember this company used to have a market cap of £180m plus when trading normally......plus the competition has gone....not for the short term or the faint hearted but could do well over the next five years if they survive......imho

I would like to see him buy more than 225k shares.......not a great vote of confidence......it does look cheap at this price but there is not much headroom on the finances and if the sales of hotter continue to decline due to the economic environment then they have nowhere to go except for another cash raise....

What happens if it is withdrawn....

"The Matched Bargain Facility will operate for a minimum of twelve months after Cancellation. The Directors' current intention is that it will continue beyond that time but Shareholders should note that it could be withdrawn. Further details will be communicated to Shareholders at the relevant time"

A buyer before the SOA is agreed?.......today Amigo have announced they are still struggling to find funding......