PLATINUM PERSPECTIVES6 Jul 2021 08:47
From the last issue of the World Platinum Council (Handy that we have loads of it) Physical investment demand for platinum has continued to grow strongly in 2021, following the record uptake seen in 2020. As outlined in our December 2020 Platinum Perspectives, WPIC sees physical platinum investment as an essential element of demand and key in price discovery. More investors are owning physically backed platinum ETFs as a result of expectations of positive supply demand fundamentals, including the impact of investment demand itself, in sustaining growing market deficits.
Platinum’s considerable industrial demand exposure to global economic recovery, plus the widening market acceptance of material demand growth from platinum for palladium substitution with new conservative public estimates of at least 1.5 moz of additional annual platinum demand by 2024, have created a strong thematic rationale for investment. Indeed, in Europe and North America alone, physical platinum ETFs have added almost 960 koz to holdings since the start of last year, effectively amplifying the impact of positive market fundamentals.
Our current Platinum Quarterly forecasts net physical investment demand of 726 koz this year, 250 koz ETF demand and 436 koz from bar and coin. The strength of both retail and institutional investor demand, in particular from North America and Europe, suggests upside risk in this 2021 forecast. Indeed, this current bar and coin forecast does not include the additional, unscheduled 40 koz of platinum eagles produced by the US Mint in MayFurther price support is, we believe, coming from the Chinese automotive sector. Higher heavy-duty (HD) diesel loadings, higher than previously expected HD production volumes (see Fig.4), plus platinum for palladium substitution in gasoline LV, is driving higher volumes of Chinese automotive sector spot platinum buying. We believe this effect has already been material in supporting platinum prices in the $1,100 - $1,200/oz range seen for much of this year, reducing the price impact of changes in futures positioning.
Platinum has outperformed gold so far in 2021, but has however lagged other global-recovery-exposed industrial metals. Platinum’s delayed response to global recovery presents a significant investor opportunity, with the combination of Chinese spot buying and strong physical investment demand driving a likely revaluation."