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I know this sounds strange, but I really wouldn't bother focusing on the share price much.
We have 6p in cash, likely 10p in around a year's time with current oil prices. All that really matters is that we start getting dividends - after that the share price can be whatever it likes, but we're still making more than a 10p bid.
A little bit of me can't shake the feeling that we may still get a 17p+ offer if the right company comes along who can fully utilise those tax credits. After all, that's about $300m in raw credits.
"Most will go for it"
Given that there is already about 6p per share in cash generated over the last 9 months, and given that there's at least another year or so of oil left in the ground, I don't think CA will accept a 10.8p bid.
The cash generated alone over the next year is already over 10p, and that excludes tax credits & licensing for a new buyer.
For the record, I would like to add that I am no longer pulling posts
I think there will be an RNS by the end of the month, but I'll be surprised if any bid is put forward. Let's remember with multiple bids that there may be bidding wars too - meaning we might be waiting on multiple parties to tell us they're out as and when the bid price increases.
The tax credits can be utilised to offset everything except the EPL - so essentially we pay 25% tax on profits made rather than 60% (or 65%?).
"The question is therefore what offer or offers have been made: 8p, 9p, 10p, 11p or even by some miracle 12p and what does Bernstein consider acceptable. Personally I doubt there will be anything in double figures and will this be enough to satisfy Bernstein?"
Simple logic can be applied here: let's assume hurricane energy will release its money as dividends at some point. We know CA have a wind up date of at least 31/12/24, so surely the offer they would accept would be at least the cash value hurricane could generate by then?
If that's the case, let's assume 4 offloads in 2024, along with another 4 this year - so 8 offloads. If each offload is a penny, and we already have about 6p per share in cash today, that gives us 14p per share, which I suspect will be the minimum CA would even consider.
In my mind, I would say end of May is a more likely time for a deal to be concluded. Does anybody on here know the average length of time before a FSP is concluded? If not, I feel like everyone (Myself included) is shooting in the dark regarding an end date.
@eskibeatbeater - for the record, just wondering why you owned the stock... certainly meant no offence.
As always, I am here to both learn facts about hurricane and help where I can.
Certainly I can see why you would think CA are going to screw you if you're a LTH to some degree - simply due to them having a smaller target of what an acceptable bid would be - but I would caution here to consider the true value of the company (From what we can understand in the reports of how much oil is in the ground) and realise that as things stand, either Trice/Maris has screwed you, depending on which one was/is lying.
Best of luck to all
"I'm already stuck in this stock"
But if you know a stock is going to lose you money (I.e., you're going to be screwed), how is that going to make your current losses any better? Also, consider that you're missing out on other stocks that have decent returns.
The reason I'm here is because I think this stock could be sold for 2-3x what I paid for it. If you don't feel this way, I strongly advise you sell your stock and buy something that you're confident will return you money... otherwise surely it's just the sunken cost fallacy?
Why own the stock if you think you're going to be screwed over?
I for one do not believe we are being screwed over, because I'm not sure how that could even happen or if it's even constant between 2 investors on this forum.
I overheard we turned down a 200p offer.
Maris turned it down because they refused to buy him the £150 bottle of wine he wanted while lunching with them. The buyers are Aramco + Musk in a joint venture.
I would certainly bank on Maris panicking and promising unrealistic deals as opposed to a good deal actually being completed by the end of March.
Of course, it goes without saying that I would be happy to eat those words with a side of humble pie provided the offer is good enough!
Raising funds can be one such issue. Even negotiating time between all the interested parties... then there's also the fact there are multiple interested parties.
They will all have their own experts reviewing the data (which in itself takes time to ingest), lawyers reviewing what is offered, not to mention chief level executives actually discussing with their boards about how much they believe this is all really worth.
Let's also not forget that we're talking about a transaction worth hundreds of millions of pounds here - that's not easy to get approval for in any company no matter its size.
To paraphrase @asimpleinvestor, it can take months just to agree on a deal for a house... this is a much bigger task.
I'm certainly in no rush to sell - as you mention @GloucesterR, 8.5p by end of May/June, and beyond that probably over 10p by the end of the year - in cash as well!
I wouldn't mind receiving that 10p over the next year or 2 as dividends and then sell off whatever we can get from the tax credits.
Point to note regarding the tax credits: We get the most value from them by actually using them rather than selling them, so I believe we should use them as much as we reasonably can (Which feels like another year of oil extraction at least).
"As a shareholder you voted to keep him by majority."
I think the real question of interest here is why IIs decided to keep him - my only thought is that they had an agreement over well 8 at the time.
But since that has failed, why keep him? Well, to extend that logic, it must mean CA are happy with the FSP and the dividends - I would expect one of those two to materialise by the end of May (Approximately 6 months after FSP started, which feels like a fair timeline).
I'm not interested in bickering either - just thought you might have seen something I hadn't. Much in the same way I was asking Sefton about why they considered the tax credits to be worthless.
"Buckingham has changed his mind so CA no longer have anybody to install instead of Maris."
Where did you learn this?
"then some argument about the tax losses (which I and pretty much anyone else with any experience think are pretty much worthless)."
Could you explain the rationale behind them being worthless? I would've thought $370m of tax credits would be a welcome addition in the climate of the EPL.
I still don't see why the FSP and the dividend are dependent on each other... in my naive mind, wouldn't it simply be a case of knocking $70m off the asking price?
Or is there more to it than that?
My view is that these sorts of things can take many months - I'm going into hibernation until end of March. As @GloucesterR says anyway, P6 is going strong so all the meanwhile this stock is being derisked.
... Hopefully they will wait until I get paid my annual bonus before announcing bids...