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From Linkedin :

Chris Cox, CEO of Serica Energy said: ‘These acquisitions contribute to the delivery of our growth strategy as we continue to diversify our portfolio and increase reserves and resources. Today, I am also pleased to welcome new colleagues to our Aberdeen and London offices as well as on the Lancaster asset who are joining Serica from Prax as part of this acquisition.

Completion of acquisition of Prax Upstream Limited ('PUL')

Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ) is pleased to announce that, following receipt of NSTA consent for change of control, the acquisition of PUL from Prax Exploration & Production has now completed.

Serica has settled the consideration of £14.5 million ($18.9 million) for the acquisition, and has assumed the cash balance held by PUL on completion amounting to the equivalent of $34 million (of which $12 million is currently restricted to cover expected Serica commitments on FPSO demobilisation).

The Lancaster field is currently producing around 5,900 boepd, with this production now added to the Serica portfolio total going forward. It is expected that the Lancaster field will cease production by the middle of 2026, when the Aoka Mizu FPSO leaves the area.

Completion of the TotalEnergies and ONE-Dyas acquisitions, signed by PUL which is now a wholly owned subsidiary of Serica, continue to be expected in H1 2026.

Serica is pleased to welcome employees from PUL into the business, with Alessandro Agostini joining the Executive Leadership Team as Chief Non-operated Joint Ventures Officer, overseeing Serica's interests in the Triton area and other non-operated assets. Alessandro led the expansion of Edison from Italy into the UK and managed its UKCS portfolio of production and exploration assets, before joining Prax Upstream and leading its development via the acquisition of Hurricane Energy and subsequent Greater Laggan Area and Catcher and GEAD transactions.

In addition the previously announced farm-in for a 40% interest in the P2530 Licence from Finder Energy has also completed. The P2530 licence contains the Wagtail oil discovery and the low-risk Marsh and Bancroft exploration prospects.

UK: TotalEnergies merges its Upstream business with NEO NEXT, creating the largest independent oil and gas producer in the UK

12/08/2025

News

Company

Gas

Oil

TotalEnergies will merge its UK Upstream business with NEO NEXT, positioning the new NEO NEXT+ as the largest independent oil and gas producer in the UK.

TotalEnergies will have a 47.5% shareholding interest in the broadened NEO NEXT+.

The new shareholding structure, asset portfolio and size of NEO NEXT+ will foster synergies and strong cash flow, while contributing to energy supply for the UK.

With TotalEnergies as its leading shareholder, NEO NEXT+ will become the largest independent oil and gas producer in the UK with a production over 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, ideally positioned to maximize the value of its portfolio, deliver strong financial returns and ensure a long-term sustainable and resilient future for its oil & gas business.

https://totalenergies.com/system/files/documents/totalenergies_pr-totalenergies-merges-its-upstream-business-with-NEO-NEXT_2025_en.pdf

Malcy’s comments for those interested:

November production of over 50,000 boepd from Serica was very impressive, although guidance for the FY 2025 average of 27,000-28,000 boepd illustrates the impact of the historic downtime from Triton this year. 2026 is well positioned to be much higher, with positive signs that Triton can rebound strongly after the current short-term planned maintenance is complete.

So the outlook for Serica is very good indeed, despite the budget news, where opportunities to give the sector a boost were passed up, and the company remains in a strong position to shape its portfolio for the future. In this respect Serica has the chance to plan its growth through organic and inorganic processes with some confidence.

I would suggest that Serica is still planning to use the fact that, however grim it is for the industry, they are better placed than most to plan for future growth. As Chris Cox summed up above, ‘we have multiple, and material, organic growth options, and we will work to high-grade the investments that maximise shareholder value’. Serica has indeed built up an impressive pipeline of organic growth projects, from infill drilling at Bruce to development opportunities West of Shetland, and I look forward to clarity from the Company about how these opportunities will add to value creation going forward.

They have a lot to high-grade at present, and cash flows next year will help provide the war chest from which they can invest in the projects they cherry pick to deliver. There may also be some further M&A potential in the North Sea now there is clarity.

So looking forward the outlook is bright, the opportunities for tax efficient investment remain, with tax-losses shielding from the worst of the regime and come 2030 and the high tax rate falling away offset by higher production is another positive for the company. I expect Serica to be up there with the best of them and my 350p TP stands.

Auctus Advisors Research note out yesterday, maintain their £3.05 per share price target :

UK budget neutral for Serica

• Average 3Q25 production was 27.5 mboe/d, comprising 15.4 mboe/d from Bruce, 7.7 mboe/d from Triton, and 4.4 mboe/d from other assets. This performance is in line with expectations, given issues at

Triton, that are now solved, were previously flagged.

• Production at the Bruce hub is above 20 mboe/d, though output was temporarily curtailed to ~16 mboe/d in October.

• Portfolio production had rebounded to once again be over 50,000 boe/d, of which Triton was 25.3 mboe/d ahead of planned subsea work that commenced on 23 November. As previously guided, production will be minimal during this work, which is expected to

conclude by mid‑December.

• November’s Triton output was achieved using a single compressor, limiting throughput to 25–30 mboe/d. Testing of the second compressor is underway, and once operational will provide redundancy and potential uplift. Additional upside exists from the Belinda development, though for now we assume ~19 mboe/d

average net production from Triton in 1H26.

• At end‑September, Serica held ~US$41 mm in cash and had borrowings of US$231 mm.

• The company guides for 27–28 mboe/d of production in 2025, with capex of ~US$250 mm. Our FY25 projections are broadly unchanged, with net debt expected at ~US$175 mm at year‑end.

• While the UK budget has no direct impact on forecasts, it could create incremental M&A opportunities for Serica. With Triton production normalizing and Prax assets contributing from late 2025, Serica is positioned to return to growth in 2026. We reiterate our target price

of £3.05 per share.

Reflections of the UK budget

The sunset date for the EPL remains 2030. Beyond that point, or earlier if commodity prices fall below the EPL threshold, the EPL will be replaced by the Oil and Gas Price Mechanism (OGPM). The OGPM will tax the proportion of revenue earned above the inflation‑adjusted thresholds of US$90/bbl and £0.90/therm, at a tax rate of 35%. For 2030, this equates

to ~US$97.6/bbl for Brent and ~£0.98/therm. These thresholds are well above our assumptions (US$70/bbl Brent and £0.84/therm NBP), meaning the OGPM has no impact on our valuation. With regards to licensing, the new regime will have no effect on Serica’s existing portfolio, planned developments, or its growth strategy, which remains centered on near‑field appraisal and development around established hubs.

Valuation and financials

Our Core NAV and ReNAV are £2.74 and £3.02 per share respectively.

https://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/research/Auctus%20-%2027.11.2025%20trading%20update.pdf

Krakenoil

That’s how I read the report, so basically the table of thresholds - the one that will come into effect is for year 2030/2031 - Oil $97.59 Gas 98p per therm , 35% tax on sales above these thresholds - unless of course the current ESIM triggers & then the OGPM comes into effect for that year….

Orcadian Energy have tweeted (appreciate it needs clarification) :

Don't listen to the budget speech, have a read of this which lays out how the Oil and Gas Price Mechanism will work post 2025. This is what matters for Orcadian's projects no windfall tax below $90/bbl for oil and 90 p/therm for gas

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6925a287…

Windfall tax rate is 35% on the amount of revenue above these prices, so every economic evaluation will that lenders or investors do will only be paying tax at 40%.

The sane ones in the Treasury have prevailed!

Hardy’s have declared through > 8%

Added an additional 173,513 notified 20/11/2025

31,559,133 8.02%

Just saw Malcy’s write up on Ithaca Energy headed up as Servica… also including a slide from Serica’s recent presentation on the Shetland Gas Plant …

Serica Energy

I noticed this announcement from Ithaca this morning and saw that they have farmed in to Shell’s Tobermory discovery West of Shetland.

Ithaca has announced it has signed a farm-in agreement with Shell UK for a 50% working interest in licences P2629 and P2630, located in the West of Shetland basin, containing the Tobermory discovery.

The strategic farm-in to the Tobermory gas discovery builds upon the Group’s West of Shetland investment strategy and positions Ithaca Energy as a significant player in a key gas hub in the area, in support of UK Energy Security.

Following completion of the farm-in, Shell UK will continue to hold a 50% stake in the Tobermory discovery and act as licence operator. The announcement of the Tobermory farm-in, together with the Group’s existing 50/50 joint venture partnership with Shell in the Group’s Tornado discovery, further strengthens Ithaca Energy’s position as a strategic partner in the area.

Yaniv Friedman, Executive Chairman, commented:

“We are delighted to announce the farm-in to the Tobermory discovery and to continue our strategic partnership with Shell UK in the area. The West of Shetland represents a key basin for the Group’s long-term growth, with the ongoing development of the Rosebank field and the continued progression of the Cambo and Tornado discoveries towards final investment decision. Our investment in the West of Shetland basin is critical not only to the UK’s Energy Security strategy, but also in supporting thousands of highly skilled jobs and our world-class supply chain and providing significant gross value add to the UK economy.”

When Serica announced the acquisition of Prax Upstream and related assets they highlighted the potential of the basin, and this is further proof of the exciting opportunities that may be available West of Shetland.

Given that Serica are also taking ownership of the Shetland Gas Plant, the natural place through which gas from Tobermory would flow, it will be interesting to watch how things progress in what could be a significant growth area for Serica.

Copied over from Modestus1 on the Enquest Chat but seeing as the Veteran Oilman in question was our Serica Man ….

Veteran oilman Tony Craven Walker says government policy "a complete mess"

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/584956/north-sea-legend-warns-of-train-crash-for-aberdeen-as-windfall-tax-drives-firms-out/

“I am so angry with what this government is doing to kill off indigenous resources,” he said, “with no justification other than idealism and self-promotion on the part of ministers.

“It is killing off talent, ambition and entrepreneurialism amongst the young, massively and negatively affecting energy costs, fiscal return and growth all at the same time.”

“Massive damage is being done to any form of measurement you wish – security, environment, fiscal, labour, productivity – by the current combination of EPL and idealistic anti-North Sea policy.

“All of this exacerbated by total collapse of confidence in the understanding of government and in the stability of UK politics, both essential ingredients for investment and growth.”

His greatest fear is the collapse in offshore infrastructure.

He attacked plans for GB Energy and said ministers lack the experience to run an energy company.

“My general view is that governments should stay out of trying to run companies. They’ve never done it well. Ed Miliband is basically the chap who’s running it all. What knowledge does he have? Nothing.

This is worth a listen if you have the chance :

Will the UK sacrifice the North Sea to Net Zero? with Kathryn Porter & Martin Copeland.

(Posted two links as unsure which one will work best..)

https://share.transistor.fm/s/0c487ba3

https://x.com/in_mavericks/status/1988185900333797781?s=46&t=uz3in5yMdDdYvqnOjeh9vg

Malcy’s Blog view for those interested :

This is ultimately a low-cost growth option for Serica, giving, as it does, the put and the call on the potential in the P2530, which includes the Wagtail oil discovery and the low-risk Marsh and Bancroft exploration prospects.

Wagtail contains estimated c.8 mmbbls or nearly 10% of net 2C Contingent resources to the Serica portfolio which would add to the organic growth opportunity set. And with Serica having plenty of organic growth options from BKR to West of Shetland they can pick and choose from the multiple options available.

Over the next few months they will evaluate their feasibility studies not least to the possible integration with the Triton FPSO which must frighten the life out of us all.Whilst the company has had well documented problems with it they must be confident that they will be resolved…

So, no big bananas here, a modest, low-cost opportunity and one of many that Serica is looking at, after all they have many in the pipeline and the deal today could unlock a lot of cashflow and with resultant share price appreciation.

Mommur

The latest Auctus Advisors research note answers your question on ‘initial consideration’

Serica has agreed to acquire a 40% interest in Licence P2530 from Finder Energy for an upfront consideration of US$0.65 mm. The licence contains the Wagtail discovery. Should the joint venture proceed to Phase C (commitment to drill, with a decision to be made by the end of August 2026), Serica will pay Finder an additional £0.94 mm.

Auctus Advisors Research note :

Farm-in transaction boosts upside at Triton

• Serica has agreed to acquire a 40% interest in Licence P2530 from Finder Energy for an upfront consideration of US$0.65 mm. The licence contains the Wagtail discovery. Should the joint venture proceed to Phase C (commitment to drill, with a decision to be made by the end of August 2026), Serica will pay Finder an additional £0.94 mm.

• Wagtail was originally discovered in 1986, encountering an 11-metre net oil column within Fulmar reservoir sandstones. Recent 3D seismic reprocessing suggests that reservoir thickness and quality improve

eastward from the discovery well. Gross 2C contingent resources are estimated by the operator at 19 mmbbl (~8 mmbbl net to Serica). The discovery is a potential tie-back candidate to the Triton FPSO. The licence

also includes two exploration prospects: Marsh and Bancroft.

• This low-cost transaction further enhances Serica’s organic growth optionality, with numerous attractive opportunities now fighting for capital allocation, and underscores the strategic value of existing infrastructure in the UK North Sea. The Wagtail farm-in increases Serica’s overall portfolio 2C resources by almost 10%, and illustrates its belief in the long-term future of the Triton hub.

• We maintain our target price of £3.05 per share. Despite recent share price appreciation, we forecast a FY25 dividend yield of ~7%. A confirmed acquisition of bp’s interests in Culzean—assuming TotalEnergies and

NEO NEXT do not exercise pre-emption rights by 12 November 2025 would be transformational for Serica. Importantly, our valuation does not yet incorporate any contribution from this potential transaction.

Valuation:

Our Core NAV and ReNAV are unchanged at ~£2.80/sh and ~£3.05/sh,

respectively. Our aggregate 2026-2028 FCF forecast represents ~90% of the current market cap.

Serica Energy plc. ('Serica' or 'the Company')

Farm-in to UK North Sea P2530 Licence

Serica is pleased to announce that it has reached agreement with Finder Energy for a 40% interest in the P2530 Licence ('P2530' or 'Licence'), for an initial consideration of c.£500,000 (c.$650,000). The Licence is currently held by Finder Energy (60% operated interest) and Dana Petroleum (40% interest).

P2530 contains the Wagtail oil discovery and the low-risk Marsh and Bancroft exploration prospects. The addition of the stake in Wagtail adds an operator estimated c.8 MMbbls of net 2C Contingent Resources to the Serica portfolio, enhancing the Company's already attractive organic growth opportunity set.

Wagtail is situated north-west of the Triton FPSO and the North Sea Transition Authority ('NSTA') has recently agreed an extension to the current licence phase to 31 August 2026. During the extension period, development engineering feasibility studies will be carried out to confirm its potential integration into the Triton FPSO and to provide comfort that such a tie-back can be economically developed. The P2530 joint venture will then be in a position to decide whether to move onto the next licence phase and commit to drill an appraisal well, or relinquish the licence with no further commitments by 31 August 2026.

Completion of the farm-in is subject to NSTA approval and other required consents.

For those interested :

The Hardy’s have further increased their holdings to the tune of 424,774 shares since the last list of shareholders was updated 9th September 2025 - previous holding 31,017,570.

New holdings :

Mr D Hardy and Mrs D Hardy* 31,442,344 7.99 %

As at 27 October 2025, the Company had 393,568,408 ordinary shares in issue of which 24.75% is not in public hands. Of the issued share capital there are currently no ordinary shares are held in treasury.

Big old UT trade brought us up at close with a couple of other late large trades:

23-Oct-25 16:35:16 195.40 778,054 Sell* 2m UT

This is quite an interesting read :

LONDON — The Treasury is weighing up proposals to scrap the oil and gas windfall tax as soon as next year, as the government scrambles to revive the U.K.’s flagging economy.

Officials have asked oil and gas firms to calculate the value of potential investment if ministers ditched the Energy Profits Levy in 2026, four years before it is due to expire, according to an industry figure with knowledge of discussions between the fossil fuel industry and government.

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-treasury-oil-gas-windfall-tax-growth-november-budget/

That’s good news (Captain JTKirk appears to of been right.. 😉)

Quite a surprise seeing as the announcement on 8th October painted a picture of severely limited production for quite sometime :

‘The operator has advised that production is likely to restart shortly, with rates that are expected to be severely limited until the root cause of the problem is identified and resolved.

The production deferral means that Serica now expects production to be below the previously communicated 29,000 to 32,000 boepd guidance range.’

To today’s update :

‘Following the announcement on 8 October that an issue with the flare system on the Triton FPSO resulted in a temporary suspension of production, production resumed in line with expectations at a limited level shortly after that date. Since then, the operator has ramped up production, which has now reached a rate of over 25,000 boepd net to Serica.’

Let’s hope all stays positive now going forward, planned shut down in November & then beyond..

I’m reading (but no link) :

*JEFFERIES RAISES #SQZ SERICA PT TO 230(190)BUY