Member Info for fleccy

"well they did make a loss in H1 and paid the Interim Dividend out of cash resources and don't expect any growth until new FY ....so..no wonder investors have gone away , for now"

Poker the H1 figures always show a deduction due to Working Capital, this is corrected in the H2 figures where it's added back in. They probably use the working capital to settle Bond debt as it matures. Check out the chart in the link below:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRA1ndHTf_Bz7O_moDxmcbWnEtcusZucUu6lEJvm3O4mGooeH4ErFjRqot3RQHBaVXCgoUED1k2CUVK/pubchart?oid=498591&format=interactive

Sandyboy, I'd argue that has nothing to do with BT's recent drops. The reason CityFibre have won those contracts is because Openreach probably didn't bid for them. I think Openreach will probably seriously bid for the Type C contracts, so something might happen there.

I believe there's a requirement for Banks to hold records for 6 years and most retain them for 7 years. There probably wont be records for any financing arrangements ending before 2017, stored by the Banks and Brokers. Car Finance arrangements are usually between 36 to 60 months, so I'd be surprised if any records will be available for loans starting further back than 2011/12 and any records going back that far are likely few and far between.

This week I signed up to a new contract with Plusnet for £23.99 a month. Interestingly they had two options for the same price, one was with a landline and one without. We're still on FTTC, but stopped using the landline years ago and now use mobiles. I decided to take the option without a landline, just to register the fact that we no longer use that service. I suspect we'll be offered FTTP imminently as Openreach have been working in the road and I had a chat with one of the Openreach planners yesterday, who was out doing a survey. One of the developments manhole's are on my front garden, so I took the opportunity to find out what's happening.

Well Fat we all have our own opinions, we'll have to disagree on this one. Lease Liabilities are on a downward trajectory and granted Net Financial debt has been increasing, but to say it's unsustainable is a massive stretch in my opinion.

Poker I realise all that, but BT could still have to payout on this if the opinion of the CAT's decision goes against them. The CAT has allowed this to get to this stage and more or less given Patourel's Lawyers some positive signals in previous hearings. I agree that it'll be a while before the CAT's decision is known and that if it goes against BT they'll likely take it to appeal if they get permission to.

I disagree that taking on more debt now is unstainable, because BT's FCF should increase significantly from 2026 onwards. The narrative that debt is unsustainable only holds true if you assume Capex will stay high forever.

Just to add to my last post, the only thing currently adding to uncertainty is the Class Action and how much it might cost BT.

Fat, Capex comes out of EBITDA not cashflow. Cash Flow is what's left after things like Capex, interest on debt and lease payments are taken out. In FY23 the FCF was negative due a pension deficit payment of £994 Million, which they covered with more debt instead of reducing Capex. Capex due to the rollout of FTTP and 5G rollout is a choice not a necessity, they could slow the rollout if they choose to and have more cash available for other things, but it looks as though they've currently chosen rollout speed over reducing debt. Once the rollouts end, BT should have bags of cash to deal with debt and for distribution.

Not really:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlo1kXBaW6U

Fat on what basis do you say the dividend is uncertain? BT's dividend only comes to £751 Million a year and is more than 2 times covered by Free Cash Flow, cancelling it would make little difference to BT's long term prospects. The biggest problem for BT at the moment is the current class action, which may mean BT have to increase their financial debt if they lose.

BT's capex is by far largest drain on "Cash available for investment and distribution", once Capex decreases BT will have loads of cash available.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTga-e_OMKY-RszcRtUutcyaP_KjD12HX7w2CCEuL0CvSTuRB6D_nhUO2pY8qYjSmnSXE2e9t2xe5sq/pubchart?oid=1033495067&format=interactive

The next chart shows the accounting change in 2018, where lease liabilities were accounted for as part of Net Debt. Personally I consider Lease Liabilities as an operating cost, it has no maturity date like a bond, it's just a yearly cost which is decreasing year on year in BT's case.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTga-e_OMKY-RszcRtUutcyaP_KjD12HX7w2CCEuL0CvSTuRB6D_nhUO2pY8qYjSmnSXE2e9t2xe5sq/pubchart?oid=958721961&format=interactive

The charts only show the FY figures so don't cover the last H1 results.

Jax and Gutter just put out meaningless one liners aimed at upsetting people who are sitting on large paper losses. I'm among the people sitting on such paper losses and I could cry about it and put out doom and gloom, but instead of complaining I choose to top up, where I consider my stocks to be cheap, as funds become available. I could invest in other stocks, but I don't see any other stocks as cheap as the ones I already have holdings in. If someone has valid arguments as to why stocks are cheap, I'll happily debate it.

UK stocks are getting punished big time and they're cheap by historic standards, there's no reason to believe that'll always be the case.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/british-investors-dump-local-stocks-buy-american-calastone-2024-02-07/

"Sorry to being the bearer of bad news, but i couldn’t care less about you."

Clearly you do so I recommend you add me to your Filter list, as I'll be adding you to mine straight after I press the Post Message button for this post.

"No, it doesn’t, it irritates me when you keep claiming your dividend reinvestment strategy is working, when it clearly isn’t."

Like I said in a previous thread, It's the destination that counts, not the journey. You should worry about your own investments instead of worrying what I might be doing with mine, although it does make me feel warm inside knowing that someone is thinking about me. As far as Jax is concerned, he adds nothing by posting negative one liners with no analysis; At least I put some effort into my posts, even if you don't agree with my point of view.

Buglet, does it upset you that I don't fret when the price drops?

"Jim Cramer says stay away from VOD"

If the Cramer effect holds true to form, we should all pile in now then.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VttU3qi-sGA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fI0A9xWIBQI

Recent classics

Is getting a bit stale:

RE: SP Today 15:01

The bod are really now backed into a corner

Whatever they do the sp will tank 40% from these levels

Ramp down Today 14:59

There it is

I can smell the 5s

MDV

Today 11:05

Will go down as the most destructive Vod ceo to date

RE: TA view Today 11:03

Ramp down in full swing

RE: TA view Today 10:01

65 broken

This’ll ramp down very quickly

JPMorgan cuts Vodafone price target to 80 Today 08:54

I think we’d all take 80 now

Avi what’s your % now on this pos getting into the 5s - it was 0% a few weeks back

RE: Got bad fealing abowt Vodafone for Wendsday Today 08:12

Under 65 today me thinks

RE: Got bad fealing abowt Vodafone for Wendsday Today 08:10

That bad feeling was correct again lol

RE: Got bad fealing abowt Vodafone for Wendsday Today 07:30

Avi why you defending such a terrible company?

Are you MDV

RE: Got bad fealing abowt Vodafone for Wendsday Today 07:29

Vod goes down in all market conditions

Fact

Dividend cut 6 Feb 2024 21:21

Should have happened months ago with the price dropping to around these levels

Now when the cut is announced imminently the price will be in the 4s

RE: Another day another drop into the abyss 6 Feb 2024 20:53

And tomorrow

Jax if you're not being treated, you should be. Any normal person would have got bored long ago, but not you.

Actually Rob and Mole in Lloyds case I agree that buyback's feel pointless due to the amount of shares issued and the amounts they Block list annually. In Vodafone's case I think buyback's would increase the share price, if they reduce debt at the same time. At less than 65p a share and the amount of cash Vodafone generates, the market would have little choice but to rerate the share price up due to a significant buyback program. Vodafone will probably have to do some buybacks anyway, since they have $3.3 Billion of convertible bonds with Next Call dates between now and June 2026.

"1. In so far as prices are concerned, the issuer must not, when executing trades under a [buy-back programme], purchase shares at a price higher than the higher of the price of the last independent trade and the highest current independent bid on the trading venues where the purchase is carried out.

If the trading venue is not a [regulated market], the price of the last independent trade or the highest current independent bid taken in reference shall be the one of the [regulated market] of the Member State in which the purchase is carried out.

Where the issuer carries out the purchase of own shares through derivative financial instruments, the exercise price of those derivative financial instruments shall not be above the higher of the price of the last independent trade and the highest current independent bid.

2. In so far as volume is concerned, the issuer must not purchase more than 25% of the average daily volume of the shares in any one day on the [regulated market] on which the purchase is carried out. The average daily volume figure must be based on the average daily volume traded in the month preceding the month of public disclosure of that programme and fixed on that basis for the authorised period of the programme.

Where the programme makes no reference to that volume, the average daily volume figure must be based on the average daily volume traded in the 20 trading days preceding the date of purchase.

3. For the purposes of paragraph 2, in cases of extreme low liquidity on the relevant market, the issuer may exceed the 25 % limit, provided that the following conditions are met:

(a) the issuer informs the competent authority of the relevant market, in advance, of its intention to deviate from the 25 % limit;

(b) the issuer [makes an adequate public disclosure of] the fact that it may deviate from the 25 % limit;

(c) the issuer does not exceed 50 % of the average daily volume."

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/MAR/1/Annex1.html?date=2016-03-07

Why's that LTI?