The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Cinovec Ranking #6 in the world: https://www.mining.com/featured-article/ranked-worlds-largest-clay-and-hard-rock-lithium-projects/
Noticing the sentiment towards lepidolite/micas change in the last 6 months from laughing stock to begrudging admission that they’ll be developed. Will the sentiment be positive in another 6 months?
The European Commission approved today a subsidy worth EUR 1.64 billion, over CZK 40 billion, in support of the Czech regions leaning on coal energy production.
The money will go to the Karlovy Vary, Ustí, and Moravia-Silesia regions to support their transition to clean energy.
https://www.expats.cz/czech-news/article/ec-approves-czk-40-billion-subsidy-to-czech-coal-regions
Any price has to reflect what the market thinks the average will be over the 25 year lifetime of the mine, not just the few years after going into production. My estimate is $26,000 for the DFS.
They better get a move on: https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-shifts-battery-strategy-as-it-seeks-u-s-tax-credits-11663178393?page=1
“Tesla Inc. is pausing its plans to make battery cells in Germany as it looks at qualifying for U.S. electric vehicle and battery manufacturing tax credits, people familiar with the matter said.
The company, which has been working to produce its own batteries, has discussed shipping cell-making equipment it had intended to use at its Berlin-area factory to the U.S., the people said.”
Sid - you can't just put any feedstock into be refined, EMH almost certainly won't be able to take spodumene, however it will be able to take Zinnwald and technically Cornwall with the same chemistry (being the other side of the prehistoric sea).
Fingers - Haplo announced on Twitter. And it's true, you are eternally optimistic - I also want to be aware of the potential downsides. We wait for the EU lithium chemical classification ruling in around a month ... then onto the DFS in December supposedly.
Anyone seen other projects publish DFS's that were significantly above their PFS's +/- 25% margin of error?
It's been said in other podcast interviews that ultimately OEMs will take lithium supply from wherever that makes commercial sense, ESG won't get much additional weighting. However, being based in Europe it'll benefit from tax and shipping cost advantages. Let's hope the EU do supply some strong incentives. I'd just be alert to significant changes in opex in the final DFS - which will impact valuation, it also might mean that Cinovec's envelope for profitable production is restricted, which may be why the capacity relative to the asset size is small. I'd love Colin to get his £4, but I'm downrating that probability until we see the DFS. I notice Haplo has trimmed his holdings in EMH today.
Iplitigator - have you seen many 'surprise' DFS numbers follow on from earlier PFS numbers in other projects?
What do people make of the latest Global Lithium Podcast episode and Austin’s estimate that it would cost “significantly above $20,000 per ton” to produce lithium?https://open.spotify.com/episode/4JMZgno56uTsWW31GOTEul?si=tZ6phiwATrq3AFYOCx5LoA&t=3182
Cross reference with an admittedly old paper: “In contrast to other lithium ores, Li2CO3 recovery from zinnwaldite is certainly somewhat less attractive than from spodumene or lepidolite. This is owed to the following factors (Fig. 1): (i) lowest lithium content, (ii) high iron content, and (iii) high fluorine content”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0892687517300973
FID - Final Investment Decision, decision to construct
Had a chance to listen before it was taken down - DFS due later this year, FID due mid-2023, Production due 18 months later.
https://www.rkequity.com/_files/ugd/affbaa_2173f8a21e3740fa999ce0c969980ce3.pdf … page 5 mentions EMH will be interviewed again by RK Equity soon
Which board? Geomet or European Metals? One is the leader, one is the follower…
Correction: PFS said $643.8m capex
Fingers, I got my calcs wrong. In the webinar KC says capex is now $650m (up from $544m in latest PFS) and EMH's equity raise would be $120-130m ... implying a 60:40 debt to equity ratio ($650m - $395m debt = $255m Cinovec equity * 49% EMH share = $125m).
This indicates KC has offers for loans/grants of at least $420m from somewhere … not bad at nearly 20:80 split for equity raise vs loans/grants. His aim was for 30:70. Less dilution for us :)
https://youtu.be/gwcI4UX8yTU - webinar on dual listing procedure for ASX listed companies.
SPEAKERS
Katharina Löckinger, Head of Corporate Communications @ DGWA
Keith Coughlan, Chairman @ European Metals Holdings Ltd. (ASX: EMH)
Not sure it’s foresight as much as they didn’t have any other option … refining Zinnwaldite will require its own unique flow sheet that is different from refining Spodumene, and perhaps other micas like Lepidolite or Jadarite.
I'd rather be under the radar than a Jadar...
For point 1) Liquidity in mining stocks specifically: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/two-factors-will-determine-the-fate-of-this-mining-boom
Note: 3rd anniversary is 27th March 2023