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Very pleased with these results which were a slither better than my forecast below in all areas.

But crazy price action today. At 8:00 they were 393p to sell and 335p to buy. Yes you read that correctly. So they veered between 8% up and 8% down, finishing over 6% down. Maybe some were expecting the flotation price to be announced, which was unrealistic.

Anyway my view is that these were excellent results, even without the boost from FX, and only strengthen my previous conservative valuation of 388p. What's more Airtel reiterated the plan to float Mobile Money by mid-2026, which further reduces the risk of delay there. So the med-long term view has only improved.

The 2% drop in Mobile Money margins was flagged previously. They said they were adjusting intra-group charges on Mobile Money to better reflect costs ahead of flotation. The impact is minimal - moving a little profit from Money the group - and is factored into my flotation calcs already.

I think the price will resume its ascent once these results have been digested over the next 2-3 wks, so have taken the opportunity to top up. In addition to excellent Airtel growth against a modest p/e, the market will want to play the flotation dividend.

Very quiet on here for a FTSE100 stock which has roughly tripled in value in the last year.

Well I've set out my stall for next Friday's results. I was hoping for some feedback or alternative views. For the last few sets of results my forecast has been bang on. I didn't share those, so sod's law says that this time when I've been more open I won't be so close. But I don't think I'll be far out because consistent revenue growth has been driven by reliable demographic and economic development factors, and currency movements are positive. The only fly in the ointment might be some short term exceptional costs related to the flotation.

Going back to the Airtel Money valuation, I previously stated a fairly conservative valuation for the combined group post flotation of 388p, based on Money FY26 results and a 10.3 EBITDA multiple.

Looking at the Deutsche analysis, they've based it upon FY27 results and a multiple of 12.5. They haven't completed the calculation (perhaps reserving that secret for paying clients) but those parameters could give a Money valuation of near $11Bn and a combined group valuation nearing 500p. My assumptions are conservative, but even Deutsche's aren't outlandish.

Whatever happens in the meantime I aim to be long at the point the Money flotation price is announced.

Regarding the Q3 results at the end of the month, with the Naira continuing to do well against the dollar I'm expecting another strong rise in the numbers. Maintaining the growth rate of the the year to date with the currency effect I forecast:

- Revenue $4580m, up 26% on Q3 2025.

- Margin 48.8%, continuing the improvement seen YTD

- EBITDA $2238m, up 33%

Without the exceptionals which impacted last year that could lead to EPS of 12.8c, up a whopping 190%.

I also expect Mobile Money revenues to have risen 33% to near $1Bn, and it's certain there will an update on plans for the flotation. With Nasdaq doing well it looks like a good time to float the Money division.

Even without the benefit of the Money flotation this should be a nice reminder to the market of the potential for this stock.

This has been discussed before. There has been no indication of how or whether any part of the Money flotation will flow directly to shareholders. It may be that Airtel will sell 50% of Money and use the cash to invest in the core telco business as well as improving their balance sheet. In that case the immediate benefit to shareholders will be in the increased Airtel shareprice, through the heightened value of the retained Money stake and cash. Their balance sheet isn't great currently, which I'm sure discourages some investors. They also have plenty of scope for growth in existing and new areas, which have been constrained to date by the need for capex. Home broadband and datacentres are two which come to mind. They may also continue to benefit from Money subscribers needing an Airtel smartphone service.

Limited rise in the price today, though Beeks often moves more the next day after news. I’m not sure the market has placed full value on this win.

nuam is a new exchange, only formed in 2024 and constituted in 2025, combining the exchanges of Chile, Peru and Colombia, which were each listed separately previously. Capitalisation is about $400Bn, which makes it half the size of Brazil. But Chile, Peru and Colombian markets have very low liquidity (15% compared to Brazil), so the combination of the three into one, as well as this deal with Beeks, is clearly intended to address that issue. Increased liquidity is one of the key benefits of Beeks’s solution for exchanges. As such there is a good opportunity for Beeks to capture the growth in trading around the combined exchange.

Beeks have said previously that emerging exchanges could be worth more to them than established exchanges, because as well as the smaller players, Beeks provide an efficient means for major institutions to operate in these locations. Despite the exchange’s relatively small size Beeks said that BMV Mexico (cap $500Bn) was the largest deal they have signed, and the nuam exchange is of a similar capitalisation, but at an earlier stage of development.

The nuam deal is a revenue share deal, so no deal value is given, but as Beeks say it is due to go live in Q3 of this year and will contribute revenue within the year, it suggests that they already have a pipeline of clients intending to use the service. Beeks said that such deals should be worth 30% more in the longer term, but the drawback is that they don’t include a lump sum payment up front and analysts find them difficult to forecast. I think we’ll have to wait for numbers from the TMX & ASX deals in the new year to clarify the likely revenue profile of such deals.

This deal also further underlines Beeks unique position in the exchange space, with 7 exchanges contracted so far and, we’re told, 3 more at late stages.

So I think this deal is much more significant than it might have been credited as so far.

Someone on ADVFN asked about the valuation of Airtel on the flotation of the Money division. I haven't shared this previously but with the share price recently bouncing off new highs I thought it would be useful to show my calculations and seek others' ideas, both there and here.

With Airtel forecast to deliver $3Bn EBITDA in the FY to Mar 26, it would be on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.0 at the current price. The mobile telco sector average globally is 9.8, while Vodafone is currently valued at EV/EBITDA of 5.4. That appears to be a good comparable to Airtel, given that Vodafone is also focusing on Africa as a growth driver. Airtel offers faster growth, but arguably more risk.

Airtel Money is certain to achieve a higher multiple than 5. With annual growth over 30%, recent new product launches and supportive demographics it should command a premium. There are few recent fintech IPOs for comparison and multiples for these vary widely between 6.3 and 118, but the median EV/EBITDA for the sector is 10.3.

With FY26 EBITDA of $689m, a 10.3 multiple values Money at $7Bn. Bloomberg valued it at $4Bn in 2024, but it has grown significantly since then, and the recent currency stability (Naira up 9%+ vs USD over the last year) makes a big difference.

Removing Money from the group, the remainder of Airtel should deliver FY26 EBITDA of $2360m. If that maintains a multiple of 5, then it would be worth $11.8Bn. While the Group might be less attractive without Money, it will also have a much stronger balance sheet and higher profile, so I'd see it maintaining at least that fairly modest multiple, given that it also has plenty of scope for growth. That's still underpriced compared to Vodafone.

Putting the valuations of the two parts together gives $18.9Bn, which is a 24% premium on the current price. I've adopted a fairly conservative multiple for Money so I see this as a low risk calculation.

Any feedback would be welcome.

H1 results on 28/10 should be interesting. Airtel's growth in constant currency terms has been consistently high, but in recent years has been pegged back by depreciation in the Naira vs US dollar. With greater currency stability the last set of results were impacted only minimally. But over the last year the Naira has actually appreciated by 10% vs USD. So there should be no negative currency effect and may even be a positive.

On top of that the new CEO has been driving cost savings throughout and earnings improvements in francophone regions. We may also hear news on the new data centre developments. Finally there is likely to be mention of the Mobile Money sale and possibly further clarification. The recent pullback from highs has been a useful top up opportunity. Thoughts anyone?

Any thoughts on the reason for the sharp rise over the last few days? Is it:

a) speculation or news leakage of 1 or 2 of the 4 Exchange deals flagged in the results (though the speed of the rise is more than we've seen previously);

b) that the risk associated with the Nasdaq contract silence has been removed, while not having a significant impact on the company;

c) institutional buying as Beeks visibility has increased, coupled with the shortage of free floating stock;

d) more speculatively, has one of the institutions experimenting with Market Edge Intelligence found some real value in the product and decided to buy into Beeks as a result?

It wasn't surprising after such a sharp rise that there would be profit-taking, probably helped by the AWS news yesterday. Those less familar with the technology and company might read across from the AWS problems. Personally I think AWS's failure only serves to underline the difference between what AWS does, mainly post-trade, and Beeks specialist services. After today could you imagine anybody in an institution or exchange persuading their Board that AWS could supply critical, latency-sensitive trading infrastructure?

After the surprise chance to top up during the recent pullback, I'm expecting good things from the FY25 results next week. The July trading update indicated FY25 Rev of £35.5m (+24%) & Adj PBT £5.5m (+%41), which I reckon will drop through to a 38% rise in Basic EPS to 4.3p. That is pretty good progress, and demonstrates Beeks claim that with relatively fixed costs, profits will accelerate as revenue rises.

I'm expecting them to reveal a strong start to the year. Starting from ACMRR of £29.5m this will be boosted by £1.3m Mexico revenue moved from FY25, $10m ProxCloud deals signed in Jun which include a big upfront element in FY25 & FY26 and the $7m PrivCloud deals signed in Aug, which should lift ACMRR to around £31m already. There should also be new revenue from Kraken & ASX exchanges, with TMX exchanges to follow in H2. Possibly plus first revenues from the new Market Edge AI product, as Beeks developed this with foundation clients, and more on the stake in Liquid Metal Solutions, which Beeks would only have done in response to demand from their client base. It's likely to be a very full update.

Beeks are generally conservative in their statements, but I still expect a very positive outlook, with a continued strong pipeline of exchanges and institutions.

There are two forms to the Exchange Cloud contracts. In both forms the exchange is essentially white labelling Beeks service and selling it to their clients. The exchange earns additional income, while also increasing access and liquidity in their markets.

Either the exchange buys the kit from Beeks, with a significant part of the contract value upfront, then Beeks operates it on their behalf as exchange clients buy into the service. Beeks sometimes refer to this as 'client-owned'. The drawback to this model is that the exchange has to commit capital upfront, which means that the deal has to wait on the exchange's capital allocation cycle and so takes longer to close. Beeks takes minimal risk but sees less of the revenue.

Or the 'revenue share' model, in which Beeks retain ownership of the kit and shares revenue with the exchange. This does not have the upfront revenue of the former, but Beeks realise a greater proportion of the income. Beeks say that they will only offer this model where they believe the exchange is committed and able to sell the service. This is more difficult for us (and brokers) to forecast, but Beeks know this industry well so will have a good idea of the likely speed of takeup.

The contract values will always be confidential, though Beeks did say that the Mexico BMV deal was the largest deal they had ever signed.

This stock is still unbelievably under the radar despite the fact that it has more than doubled in price over the last 8m, making it one of the top 5 performing FTSE100 stocks in 2025. Given the rise I've been doing my sums to reassess my view on AIrtel...

For some years Airtel has delivered 20%+ constant currency revenue growth. That is underpinned by the growth in the use of phones & data across Africa. Airtel have 169m subscribers out of a population of 600m, gaining about 5m annually. Of those less than half are using smartphones, but that figure is growing at 17% pa. With Africa’s economy forecast to grow by 3.5-4% in 2025 & a young population growing at 2.5% pa there are reliable demographic drivers of future growth.

Airtel’s bugbear in recent years has been the fall in the Naira vs USD. But the Naira has been fairly stable over the past year, in fact appreciating against the dollar after the central bank acted to stabilise the currency. At the same time Airtel have replaced USD debt with local currency to reduce their exposure.

On that basis I forecast eps of 14.4c for FY26 (140% rise on FY25), increasing to 18c in FY27, which would put them on a p/e of 16. Few telcos are making profits these days, but when they were a p/e of 18 was typical. Though none offered the high growth rate and 4% yield of Airtel.

My figures don’t factor in new Airtel opportunities in home broadband or datacentres, with 3 under construction currently.

But the golden nugget is Airtel Money, which they plan to float by mid 2026. Investors TPG & Mastercard valued Money at $2.65Bn in 2021, while in 2024 Bloomberg valued it at over $4Bn. With Money growing at 30%+ pa it could be worth £5Bn at flotation, 62% of the valuation of Airtel as a whole, while Money contributes less than 40% of group profits. Thus flotation would realise this differential in the valuation of Money as a large fast growing fintech vs the group’s current valuation as a telco and unlock a potential £1.6Bn additional value for shareholders.

On that basis I still see this as a buy with a fair value of 275p. This breather in the rising price I've treated as a nice buying opportunity.

I've checked updates from brokers Progressive & Canaccord, and can confirm that neither moved forecasts at all when the ASX deal was announced, although Beeks said that revenue recognition will start in 2025. I think that was purely because it's a revenue share deal and so not as easy to forecast as other Exchange deals with a defined contract value & up-front payment.

Beeks said they will only offer the revenue share model where they feel it will be beneficial: I think by that they mean that the exchange will be effective in selling it. GMcA also commented that JSE would have been more valuable as a revenue share as it has been so successful. JSE is currently forecast to be worth £3-5m pa by 2028.

ASX is a similar size to JSE in market capitalisation, but with more than three times the trading volume, making it of similar scale to Toronto. I've seen ASX claim to be the 11th largest in the world, so that is probably by volume.

ASX formally launched ASX Colo OnDemand in June and have two sales staff behind it. They've been actively promoting it on social media: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/asx_asx-colo-ondemand-activity-7355844935666819075-8hJ6 and it looks likely to be presented at the STAC conference ASX are sponsoring in Sep.

ASX is therefore likely to be of significant value, and certainly not the zero currently in broker forecasts. So I think at some stage brokers will have to upgrade forecasts to factor in ASX, regardless of other deals which may land in the meantime. If not announced before, then I would expect Beeks to comment in FY results on clients going live at ASX, which might be the catalyst for the brokers.

Feedback from the results conference call today:

• A sharp CEO with his finger on the button. In control and knowledgeable. Quite impressed.

• Margins improved due to Nigeria price increases, cost efficiency programme and lower fuel prices (which could of course reverse).

• Currencies stable. 95% of debt now in local ccy.

• Big & growing addressable market with plenty of scope for Airtel growth:

o they have 169m subscribers out of African population of 600m, growing at 3% pa with low phone/data penetration currently

o smartphone users grew at 17% but still less than half their subscribers are using smartphones

o Airtel Money users grew 16% to 45m, but this is still only about a quarter of their current phone subscribers

o Across Africa 97% of transactions are still in cash, but the population is young & tech savvy, so open to online banking

• They have 3 large datacentres in construction in Nigeria, Kenya & DRC & see that market following the rapid growth seen in EU/USA

• New opportunities lie in Home Broadband & B2B in Nigeria, but this will need investment

• Committed to floating Mobile Money by mid-2026.

Overall I was very encouraged. They have a lot of opportunity open to them, and appear to have a sharp detail man at the helm to execute against it efficiently. The only risks I see are in currency devaluations and fuel costs.

Great Q1 results from AAF this morning, posting a 22% rise in revenue, after only minimal currency impact from 25% (in fact over the last year the Naira has appreciated vs the dollar). Margins rose slightly more than I expected to 48% from 46.5% last reported. The end result being a 1800% rise in statutory EPS to 3.4c, from 0.2c in Q1/25. Bear in mind that they reported only 6c EPS for the whole of FY25.

Also importantly Mobile Money revenue rose 31% after currency adjustments.

This share does not appear to be well covered. There have been no broker estimate updates since last Dec and I can’t find any full broker notes at all. So I think it may take a while for this news to spread with the possibility of further price increases as it does.

This is a large cap telco, in a rapidly growing market, showing consistent 20%+ revenue growth (before currency impacts), which also includes a fintech they said they’ll float by mid 2026. They are buying back shares at a good rate (£100m proposed with $62m so far). If they replicate this profitability across the year they would be on a PE of 18, but with growth if currencies continue to be stable then likely better than that. 18 is about the global average for telcos. In the UK most have fallen into losses but historically they’ve traded at about 14. So on face value AAF doesn’t look cheap, but no others of this size are growing at this rate and no others have the fintech element.

Looks a good bet to me so long as the Naira remains stable against the dollar.

I posted this on ADVFN last week but thought I'd share here too.

One factor holding back the Beeks price has been doubt around the Nasdaq contract. Nasdaq have yet to fully publicise Proximity on Demand (POD), and maintain an NDA which prevents Beeks from doing so. Before Nasdaq can do that they need to issue POD pricing via a SEC regulatory filing, but that has been outstanding since at least Feb.

For some time this page ( https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-connectivity/proximity-on-demand-services ) was offering POD for free until 1st June. I believe the free offer was made because the pricing had not yet been filed. But that page was not linked to from the Nasdaq site, as though it was either a mistake, or they were choosing to hide it, which caused doubts about Nasdaq’s intentions.

However that all changed last week. POD is now listed as an option on the main Nasdaq connectivity page ( https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-connectivity ) and the POD page now refers to a ‘limited time offer’.

This is a significant step forward and removes that doubt about the Nasdaq contract. It should be followed by the Nasdaq SEC filing on pricing as well as the NDA being lifted from Beeks, though it’s difficult to predict how soon that will be.

The title of this most recent thread is misleading. The CEO sold just 1.2% of his holding, for £550k. That leaves him stil holding over 31% of the stock. He's not a wealthy man and has recently been through a divorce, so there are good reasons for believing that this was just for 'personal reasons' as stated, and not a reflection on future prospects for the shares.

I think this does not recognise the change in the company's strategy. They began in 2001 as a design consultancy & only from about 2020 switched to designing & supplying their own ASICs, funding or part-funding development in order to generate future revenues from the supply of chips (or royalties on IP). So the current cashflow pressures are not so much due to poor pricing in the past as to the fact that they are choosing to invest now in order to earn a return later.

The typical lead time of 3 years before those supply revenues start is the reason they need cash now. They are in a natural phase for this type of business. Their success or otherwise will be determined by the future demand for their ASICs & the margins they generate from them. That we cannot yet fully judge, but the current lack of positive cashflow does not provide a good indicator of failure, or success.

It’s definitely Nasdaq. There is a public SEC document filed by Nasdaq stating that it intends to launch “Proximity on Demand (POD)” with an analytics option which names Beeks as the supplier and references the JSE contract.