Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
There is a hedge in Canada which goes up and down with the price. It's detailed here - https://www.iiroc.ca/sections/markets/reports-statistics-and-other-information/short-sale-trading-statistics-and-reports
In the UK, TXP is exempt from short reporting due to its Canadian listing. Nevertheless, there is a circa 8m 'borrow' from euroclear implying a circa 4% short. As TXP's major shareholder Premier Miton have an active put option of 38% of their portfolio, 6m of this borrow is probably due to the option seller holding a static short on TXP to underwrite the portfolio insurance. The near static nature of the euroclear borrow suggests its mostly insurance as opposed to an active hedge or malicious attempt to suppress the price. That leaves circa 2m unaccounted for which may be a hedge or speculators. At circa 1% of the free float it's probably irrelevant.
Rather than focus on the short, I'd focus on the intrinsic value of TXP once Coho and Cascadura are in production. A simple calculation will tell you why many think this is a bargain even though current active production is quite modest.
If you have concerns about Coho and Cascadura getting into production then there's plenty of public domain evidence to suggest this is a question of when in the near time as opposed to if. Read through TXP's RNS statements and the regulatory applications: https://www.ema.co.tt/esummary/index.php/list/1?resetfilters=0&clearordering=0&clearfilters=0&group_by=cec_applications___cecnum
My view is that the share price may go anywhere in the next few days/weeks or months but pretty soon TXP will be at a far higher price than today - we shall see.....
I wouldn't disagree. TXP seem to have passed on stating tangible milestones and relied instead on verbal assurances that have proven to be wildly optimistic. After 30 years of project delivery, I can guarantee that's not a good idea.
As an aside, feedback on the Cascadura CEC ends this week. Assuming feedback is similar to that gained in the pre-submission consultation then a May sign off by the regulator seems possible. The consultation comments are in Chapter 11 of the application and on this occasion, Shell are not involved:
https://www.ema.co.tt/esummary/index.php/cec-6214-2021
Joey - I would suggest that hooking Coho up will prove NGC can fulfil their commitments. The CEC for Coho was approved in January '21 and what has followed has been between Shell and NGC. I share your frustration, but there are good reasons to believe Coho in May will happen now a contract has been agreed and it's down to the final mechanical link.
https://www.ema.co.tt/esummary/index.php/details/1/6032
Am I reading this correctly - £2.85 price versus GBP 3.869 per share nav? That's rather a large discount.....??
Thanks in advance
It was an encouraging article in some ways but Paul's compulsion to throw out dates that constantly move into the distance is not impressing the market.
https://guardian.co.tt/business/first-gas-from-touchstone-expected-in-may-6.2.1456170.57aef7a388?fbclid=IwAR3oWZfRaTkk4G9uoEg8hZKltUJlTgCWaxCHAdaD5hc9LZPkF-FE0XVwRfA
Confusingly, ex divi today according to corporate site: https://www.gulfkeystone.com/investors/dividend-information/
but RNS stated 11th record date.... https://investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/dividend-payment/202202090700080893B/
I find it easier to focus on the 2 year and 5 year outcome rather than on the daily share price. The expectation management regarding production has been dire but TXP have been very good at keeping their exploration commitments. As such, I believe the problem is perhaps some naivety on TXP's behalf in translating Canadian timelines onto a Caribbean island during a pandemic where not everyone shares their motivation.
If you look at what now seems inevitable, the only question is when and if you have confidence in that falling within 6/12/24 months then I think this remains a viable - albeit frustrating - investment.
Excellent share but the spread is just idiotic
TXP are presenting on the 20th:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/380
The corporate presentation explains what has recently been found and the potential in Trinidad:
https://www.touchstoneexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/December-2021-Corporate-Presentation.pdf
The dual listing means TXP appears on the list of exempted shares for the purposes of short reporting. See https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/short-selling/notification-and-disclosure-net-short-positions which contains a link to the list of exempted securities.
There are some ‘fun and games’ going on. Not that aim is manipulated but it was impossible to buy at any meaningful volume throughout the morning despite the requirement that market makers deal in published size regardless of market conditions - they comprehensively failed to fulfil this requirement. Thereafter, the market effectively closed when canada opened. The txp share price has been detached from reality for some time and we should expect more of the same until the option seller has cleared or events compel a re-rating.
Smasher - the well is designed for a specific target. If you go native because you find something unexpected, you could get into a world of trouble and potentially lose the well/equipment and blow a hole in south Trinidad. Generally, that's considered a bad idea - hope that helps
I believe that's a little misleading. There are circa 210m ordinary shares so 8.8m on loan from CREST is circa 4.2% of the total shares outstanding. The 8.45% presumably refers to the 8.8m as a proportion of the stock CREST hold on behalf of clients not the total shares outstanding. Happy to be corrected