Member Info for EV_Bull

From 27th May decision Obs:
"The Debtor informs about the first sale of iron ore and deadline for depositing the amount obtained, that is, R$7.5 million. informs that the Agreement with the Banks Union has not been finalized, noting that the Debtor and Investors accepted the changes suggested by the Banks Union. It highlights that only the Indian Banks did not present the accepted draft of the Agreement. He informs that the delay in finalizing the Agreement is bringing losses to the Company under Reorganization. It reiterates the request to assess the expiration of guarantees and credit prescription. At the end, it requires the subpoena of the Union of Banks to complete the transaction, under the terms of the Proposal and 02.07.2020, the addendum of 02.04.2021). Manifest the Union of Banks in 10 days. "

Agreed
Surely if they didn't think it was happening they'd sell out rather than whinge on a message board?! Baffles me how someone would hang on to a share they don't believe in then whinge like a baby on a message board whenever something positive is stated and the SP rises a bit. I just don't get it.

Either, the sunk cost fallacy, short, or just not too many brain cells.
Notice none of them have ever posted anything of use.

@Nick, I’d recommend you get checked out. I know many have found lockdown tough.
https://www.nhs.uk/mental-health/conditions/personality-disorder/

Even the locals believe it is going to happen now. At some point (soon) the share price will start to believe it. :-)

"Started cleaning in the ICOMI area now everything indicates that it is going to run again, going up to km 70 ." (ICOMI was a prior name for the operation)
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=6247581005282126&set=p.6247581005282126&type=3

Here you go observer.

https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/if-x-is-to-be-increased-by-400-is-that-expressed-as-4x-or-5x.155003/

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/28/multibaggers-defined.aspx

Open to some debate but:
400% gain is a 5x or 5 bagger i.e you enter with one bag (of money) and leave with 5. Sounds good to me though.

CDH is cancelled MLQ, swapped for WP BRAVE - must be a sign ;-)

Something like the below targets would make me think about selling some in stages.
45p today
75p in a month
150p in a year
300p in three years

Unimpaired was around $1.2bn I believe, my estimates are conservative. Iron ore prices were relatively high in 2011-2012.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/282830/iron-ore-prices-since-2003/

Here’s how I get us around £1+ ball park short term @Barksy1 in terms of a sum of parts analysis. Longer term a lot could go right, Amapa in production would clearly be worth a lot more depending on several factors. These are my approximations, feel free to provide your own.
Sonora JV – Sale value to Ganfeng or Hanwa £20m
EMH Stake - £15m
Hastings – Swap our JV for £15m Equity in HAS (No idea if this is possible) off-taker could also buy our JV.
Amapa – 27% my value range £64m - £128m Anglo ($660m) valuation (low end at 50% risked discount) high end £200m
LT&LS - £0.5m
Macarthur - £0.5m
------
Low £115m ~75p per share
Fair £179m ~£1.20 per share
High £250m ~£1.60 per share
If the other valuation estimates are anywhere close to possible then Amapa is not priced in to the shares at all yet.

The "pre-conditions" are set by us, so of course we'd want the ownership transfer at the time the money changes hands. That part hasn't happened yet though, but steps were taken in that direction a month ago.

Yep, some of the wheels were actually set in motion 1 month ago in this regard. I am very happy with the prudence that has been shown so far, it will be worth the wait.

@Barksy, the market cap is sometimes a self fulfilling prophecy as it makes it difficult to raise equity without significant dilution (hence dropping to 3p in the covid crash). When we get the deal done this will work in reverse and we should be able to raise plenty of cash to fund our JVs (incl 49% if necessary) and that in turn makes the assets more valuable to Cadence and therefore would increase the market cap. This is why the £3-£5 price targets are not impossible once upward momentum is established.

@Obs there's a ship load of them booked now, Pier 2 is going to be incredibly important for us so it's great to have that in action.

Unless holding 100% KDNC Mike, I'd suggest selling something else this month end! Even then, perhaps there's something else you can sell on a well known auction site to keep you going lol.

WP BRAVE - Must be a sign Obs ;-)

Analysis: This is a coiled spring.
Incredible that anyone is willing to sell this low with company changing news on the horizon.

Given that these banks are state owned I highly doubt that they would be pulling out at this stage.
Amazing the SP is flat with EMH stake up 17% over the past 2 days.

"In 2012 the operation produced 6.1 Mt of iron ore concentrate and reported operating profits from their 70% ownership in the Amapá Project of US$120 million (100% - US$171 million)"
At that rate with 27% based on our current valuation we would have a forward P/E of 1.3. (I know for several reasons this is not a perfect comparison, but just an indication).

Yep, they will all be kicking themselves when we have our 20% maddog, hopefully all done an dusted in a matter of a few weeks.

Member Since 17th Nov 2020.
Claims to have been invested for 7 years.
Suggested this was a strong sell at 13.75. 08 Dec 2020 23:58 and a "ponzi" claims to be "massively in the red here" yet clearly doesn't seem to want the share price to rise, given every post is extremely negative?
Very strange.

If you believe what you spout RP you would surely have cut your losses by now as you are advising others to sell.
You are either short or stupid, possibly both.
Perhaps time to switch to one of your other 12 accounts?

I think it will be pretty easy to monetise the Sonora JV given what Ganfeng are planning to do there. Clay now seems to be in vogue with Tesla's lithium clay effort too.