Goldman forecast update25 Jul 2014 00:32
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its price forecast for nickel as the market is swinging to a deficit next year following an ore-export ban in Indonesia.
The bank’s 12-month estimate is now $22,000 a metric ton, up 38 percent from the previous projection of $16,000, analysts led by Max Layton wrote in a report. They increased zinc and aluminum by at least 11 percent to $2,500 a ton and $2,100 a ton, respectively, saying iron ore, gold and copper have “the greatest downside” among the mining commodities.
Goldman joins Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. in boosting the outlook for nickel, already the best-performing base metal on the London Metal Exchange this year, as supplies are declining after the Indonesian restriction in January. The global nickel market will be in deficit of 201,000 tons next year from an estimated 20,000 ton surplus this year, with demand exceeding supply for aluminum and zinc this year, Goldman said.
“Nickel is being boosted by the attempts of a large producer (Indonesia) to encourage value-add capacity domestically,” the Goldman analysts said in the report dated yesterday. “We have raised out already bullish zinc, nickel and aluminum forecasts, and lowered our copper forecasts, reflecting a quick-than-anticipated shift in the relative fundamentals of these commodities.”
The ban by Indonesia, which accounted for more than 20 percent of global nickel supply in 2013, is unlikely to be eased until the second half of 2015, Goldman said.