Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Mad,
I'm on the cusp of confirming a pivotal detail. Should my suspicions hold, brace for a weekend read that'll serve up generous slices of humble pie to the board's most vociferous naysayers. It promises to be a delectable feast of irony, best enjoyed with a side of schadenfreude.
Al, with all due respect, I'm puzzled by the approach of locking in losses over a mere six-month span, especially when the potential upside so clearly outweighs the downside risks. Letting short-term fear or impatience dictate such a pivotal decision seems both irrational and emotionally charged. I've been down that road myself in my early investing days, feeling invincible, only to learn the hard way. It reminds me of our conversations during the COVID crisis, when I faced ridicule for taking the opposite stance. That period was when I made some of my most significant investments, seizing the moment when others saw only despair. The prudent move is to buy in amidst the turmoil, or "when there's blood in the streets," as the saying goes. That is, of course, unless you've completely lost faith in the technology in Dermatonics and see Croda's potential pushed back to 2025. The convertible bond issue will resolve itself in time; why not view this turmoil as an opportunity? That would be the logical strategy, wouldn't it?
The joy of pondering the potentially lucrative fruits of the UMG partnership, musing on the tantalising accretion of their product line. But alas, our dreams of clarity and insight are dashed as our dear friend Nick1978 decides it's the perfect moment to play the spoilsport, flinging sand into our proverbial ice creams. How utterly delightful of him to truly enhance our beachside financial banquet with a gritty garnish! Take a bow, Nick1978.
https://twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR/status/1762902580940636426
In May 2022, I spotlighted #MEGP at 71p, hinting that breaching 80p could signal an uptrend. Amidst intrigue, the CEO's hostile bid at this juncture was rebuffed...
https://twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR/status/1761854770619240464
https://smallcompanychampion.substack.com/
Clio,
As I mentioned earlier, I have a hypothesis regarding the matter. However, we must apply logical reasoning to your statement. It is unlikely that SA will confirm anything to an investor before informing the market first. Therefore, we must wait for official confirmation through normal channels and then discuss the details further.
Sadly, Mad, It's truly disheartening to witness the unfolding of the self-fulfilling prophecy associated with the "death spiral" feature of CBs. It wouldn't be as bad if there was positive liquidity.
Assuming my theory is accurate regarding the recent MMG RNS launch announcement, which saw no need to revise the Cavendish forecasts, even TW might have to concede his misinterpretation concerning the absence of an upgrade following the UMG development. The introduction of numerous products across various regions has unexpectedly overwhelmed SBTX. Hence, a rushed RNS left Cavendish with no time to audit and adjust. This scenario could radically alter the perspective on the Dermatonics venture, often criticised for its excessive cash guzzling, as TW argues.
Have a good weekend all.
Thanks, Mad.
Financial Journalist
While the drawbacks of CBs are widely acknowledged, it's important to assess the potential risks from all angles to understand the full spectrum of outcomes I have attempted to do several times. The real concern arises when CB holders opt to convert and dump, particularly in scenarios devoid of significant liquidity events, such as the anticipated Croda/Sederma launch. In such cases, the likelihood of an adverse outcome increases. However, for the intrepid or stubborn among us, who are willing to embrace some level of uncertainty with an optimistic outlook on the future, the only real worry is uncovering yet another basement beneath what was thought to be the bottom.
Such are the nerves; even a paltry £50k worse SBTX conversion has spooked investors, and that's without notification of them being sold. The thought has been enough.
It would be reassuring to know that CB holders believe in the potential that Croda/Sederma might unlock and are prepared to hold off on selling shares until after the commercial news from Croda becomes public. Without such assurance, it's entirely reasonable for investors to delve into the history of previous CB transactions with other companies, even though one could argue that SBTX is better positioned.
However, the timing of the CBs raises more significant concerns, suggesting that the SA/Board might be bracing for potential Croda delays stretching into 2025. I do not agree this to be the case. Yet, there are rational investors who understand that Croda might be keeping SA minimally informed, as is practical, leading SA to ensure SBTX's independence regardless of Croda's timeline. If Croda does launch in 2024, it would be an unexpected bonus. There's a possibility that SBTX might allocate the proceeds from these bonds to retire the CBs ahead of schedule, accepting any associated penalties if it means lessening shareholder dilution.
Thanks, Clio.
In my remarks on the subject, I downplayed its significance; to me, it's utterly trivial. Over the years, I've encountered much more severe backlash for defending TW in various forums. What sets this instance apart is its effect on my wife, which is my primary concern. I've never pointed fingers at any investor—it could just as easily be a disgruntled neighbour stirred up by a bit of football rivalry, for all I care. Regarding Olerci, based on your interaction, it seems he's under the mistaken impression that I still value his opinions despite relegating him to irrelevance after his barrage of emailed memes. He's entirely inconsequential, as are the trolls I named in the update. I mention them because I wish to clarify that they offer no substance to the research goals for anyone reading their posts, hence why I never respond directly to them. They have been consigned to the naughty step, the filter bin.
I can see from PGlancy's post Oleric is intent on spreading misinformation for his agenda, whatever that is. I continue to buy SBTX. Indeed, I bought more this week after selling my HVO. For example, I do not suffer from the same angst as poor Phatsyle. I look forward to the day his fellow directors start asking him awkward questions after his pump, then dump once the commercial events kick in. I'd love to be having my eyes tested that day.
The meeting at the Harper Hay branch is still open If you're not afraid of a hobbit!
Retail investors are sidelined in favour of Insti's at #hvo's share placing. As boards court institutions with shares, the small-cap stalwarts who prop up prices are left watching their efforts enrich others. It's a familiar tale of retail investors baking the cake, only for institutions to take it without a nod of thanks. https://smallcompanychampion.substack.com
https://twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR/status/1757808793667117175
In case you missed it. Alex has added an addendum to his "added sugar labelling" after a conversation with SOH. It adds important context to what appears to be a SweetBiotix purchase portal.
https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/p/optibiotix-health-plc-0bd
With much gratitude from Aquae.
https://lemminginvestor.substack.com
LOL. I had a very interesting indeed encouraging, email exchange with SOH after Aquae sent me some very interesting research on another sweet-ish fibre rival to SweetBiotix. Initially, it could have negative connotations for SweetBiotix. However, the SOH response supported faith in SweetBiotix.
Watch this space over the weekend.