Member Info for EdwardStone

There is no "hijacking" of this board. You just can't deal with people who read the accounts questioning the numbers.

It's clear that the market (ie professionals) know something, and so does Petrofac, that we don't. The price/sales of this company looks crazily low, but its survival depends on its free cashflow rebounding in the 2nd half to nearly zero over the year. There is also a mention of some large "no win no fee" law firms opening new cases against them. This might also be a factor. If I do anything here, I will buy the debt not the equity.

You cannot tell which sales are shorting, and which are longs selling out. Can you.

Question to all those saying "shorts" are driving the price lower.

1) how can you tell if a sell is a shorter opening a new position, or a long closing out?

2) if shorts account for only 5% of the open interest, the other 95% of sells must be longs closing out, right?

3) so how do the 5% outweigh the 95%?

The classic "oh no, people are SHORTING" is the giveaway of amateur traders who don't understand how markets work.

I am long enough PFC equity here and will buy some bonds speculatively, but don't underestimate the risk in this company. We (here) are basing our view that it will survive on the due diligence that must have been done on the CCS project, and its forward order book and continued job adverts. But the company has provided no guidance which means we're flying pretty blind.

Are you really this ignorant?! I have seen tends of thousands of dumb messages like yours in the 30+ years I've been trading - as I warned about in my first post. "7x1600 shares in a row, they're trying to bring the price down". LOL.

Post ANALYSIS, not old woman's hysteria.

As per my point 7, the due diligence the clients must have done is reassuring and one of the strong points.

Hello, I've just joined here (although long time PFC shareholder).

1) What has SnapCr*P been saying in detail please?

2) Lots of small investors don't understand "shorts". Yes some institutions will be shorting but that's not the cause of this share price fall.

3) It looks like someone has analysed, or maybe knows from inside, that impending results are materially worse than previously expected

4) It would REALLY help here if people who understand accounts could start commenting on real numbers, not "oh I see 4000 shares were sold at 35.2p, that must be a new shorter"

5) looking at numbers from the 30/6/23 Petrofac interim statements, this company is in a fight to generate cash from its $6bn order backlog, vs its debt of $852m, of which $90m of loans are due in 2024, a further $162m revolver in 2024, and the $600m 2026 bonds.

6) Bad points: negative equity (-$66m), constant cash outflows, stuck in loss making unprofitable contracts, dependent on small number of current contracts

7) Good points: as of 30/6/23, board declared it a going concern, $6+bn backlog, recent $600m contract win in Oct 2023, on which the client would have done financial due diligence

Summary: the 2026 bonds are trading at distressed level, implying professional bondholders see material risk of bankruptcy. Having looked at the accounts, it's hard to conclude otherwise and this share price implies that some of the big contracts have slipped.

This is all my personal view, I have no inside knowledge. I suspect the shares have further to fall as people throw in the towel. I would prefer to buy the bonds here rather than the shares.

Your comments in reply are welcome.