AI’s great power grab continues in spite of bubble fears19 Nov 2025 10:06
Anyone who thought the surge in artificial intelligence spending might ease should look away now. UBS notes that America’s big four cloud providers have unveiled yet another round of eye-watering investment plans.
Alphabet expects $91-93 billion of capital spending next year, Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META, XETRA:FB2A, SIX:FB) is aiming for as much as $72 billion, Microsoft wants to double data-centre capacity within two years, and Amazon is guiding to $125 billion for 2025 with more to come.
UBS has lifted its global AI capex forecast to $423 billion this year and $1.3 trillion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 25%.
Money alone will not do the trick. A reliable supply of cheap power is becoming the limiting factor.
Satya Nadella, Microsoft Corp's (NASDAQ:MSFT) chief executive, said his biggest problem is building data centres quickly “close to power,” warning that without the right infrastructure, he could end up with “a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can’t plug in.”
Amazon.com Inc's (NASDAQ:AMZN) boss voiced similar concerns. NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang went further, arguing that China could “win the AI race” because lower energy costs and subsidies give its tech companies a structural advantage.
UBS remains positive on AI platforms and the companies that help build them, but says the bottleneck is now energy infrastructure.
In the United States, hyperscaler demand is driving a surge in electricity and storage needs.
Only a quarter of the required storage capacity is met domestically, which UBS thinks will spark heavy investment in grid upgrades, new generation and advanced storage technologies.
Temporary flexibility on imported storage systems should keep expansion on track, but greater participation from US suppliers looks inevitable.
China, meanwhile, has added about half of the world’s new electricity generation over the past year, three-quarters of it solar.
UBS views this as a strategic energy shift designed to cut reliance on imported fuels and strengthen China’s tech sector.
New solar, heavy subsidies for storage and the “Eastern Data, Western Computing” initiative are intended to give Chinese data-centre operators a cost edge that offsets the higher power draw of local AI chips.
Demand for electricity is not just an AI story. Electrification of transport and industry is picking up pace. UBS highlights strong order momentum across electrical equipment makers, grid specialists and utilities.
With roughly $3 trillion a year of investment expected by 2030 in power generation, storage, grids, data centres and electrified transport, the bank argues that energy and resources offer a broad opportunity set.
The message is simple: the AI boom will only go as far as the power system allows, and that makes energy infrastructure one of the defining investment themes of the next decade.
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