Member Info for doc7

That's only because we don't have an antibody test yet.

However it is well known that coronaviruses do confer immunity, although in some cases this is relatively short lived.

However, there has not been a documented case of re infection despite over 2 million primary infections despite the fact that we send Covid positive staff back into the workplace after 7 days.

Further to your 0734 post Notes I contracted Coronavirus (proven by antigen testing) during the course of my NHS duties. I am now almost fully recovered and have immunity. I could hence attend the AGM in the manner you suggest at pretty well no risk to me or to anyone else there. I Would be delighted to do so and to ask questions on behalf of shareholders in a professional manner.

Wendy monitors this board so AFC know the offer is there.

BW

Doc

It seems that the board has become a covid board; I hope the thread title will pull us back towards AFC.

Specifically, how do people think AFC will fare if there is a prolonged shut down? The SP seems to be weathering the storm ok so far.

My thoughts are that a shut down due to on going social isolation for 3-4 months will delay AFC but not do lasting damage. presumably some of the salary costs are supported by the government schemes, but the most important thing is that AFC has no debt to service. The directors' salaries may be the biggest drain.

So a delay of 3-4 months will simply be an interlude, and mean that orders and commercialisation will be delayed by a similar period of time. I still expect people to want to invest differently when all this is over, and AFC should benefit from that ....if they can get the message out. That might mean TUVA coming out of hibernation.

On a 1-2 year time line I still hope the sp will perform very favourably.

Balanced views welcome.

I don't post often these days, but have been in AFC for well over a decade now. Posts these days tend to get lost too quickly in a deluge of off topic debate or vacuous comment. I hope you will not mind me sharing my thoughts now however.

I am more optimistic about AFC than at any time over the last ten years....I'm even going to put some positive spin on the coronavirus!

AFC now has a suite of products about which they are very bullish. The results RNS this week was interesting for me as I see a multitude of applications mentioned, some of which they have not really been touched on before. Not only were trains mentioned, but mentioned in the context of people they were having discussions with. The in house broker has said that AFC will be revenue-generating this year (that means orders!) and has attributed a current value of 54p to the shares, albeit then risk-adjusted to 27p. But that figure takes no account of the smaller fuel cell which I think has enormous potential, or of Alkamem, which also has enormous potential. I think 27p as a fair present value is simply too conservative as it takes none of this into account.

So we have multiple intrinsic factors that bode very well; we have the right partners in place; we have lots of interest and resultant conversations with big players. Even the funding looks ok.

But the extrinsic factors look good also. The political landscape is firmly with us after many years. Institutional sentiment is with the H2 and green sectors at last. There is an awareness that has never been there before. Even coronavirus might help. How?

Well billions has been taken out of shares and put into safe havens over the last week or two. In a few months coronavirus will blow over, however bad it gets (every pandemic in history has) and confidence will return in the markets, just at it always does. And that money, which will have been taken out of oilies and banks and airlines, will be looking for a new home in the market. Many will wish to invest in green issues, in new tech and in potential growth stories. And AFC may be a prime candidate for that money just at a time when we are taking our first orders and have real momentum.

Someone asked earlier on here what the SP will be at the year end. I really have no idea, but I do think that, if expectations come to pass, we will have a MCap to rival ITM or even Ceres. And ours might be based on predicted near term earnings. £30m profit a year on a PE of 20 (low for this sort of scenario) equals £600m.

That £1 party doesn't seem as far away at it once did.

Good luck all.

Tom McColm used to be a broker at Allenby and then Zeus. He produced regular broker notes on AFC with very fanciful target prices....as high as 232p.

Not sure I'd bet the house on this lot!

I see what you are saying BumbleB. It is badly written and confusing. I think you are right though.
Doc

Taken from NI's post:

If AFC Energy’s solid alkaline membrane (AlkaMem™) becomes as technologically robust as its liquid alkaline technology, it would, in our opinion gain a considerable share of the PEM market. In particular, the ability of the membrane to operate with less pure hydrogen (and hydrogen cracked from ammonia) means that it would require less expensive chemical feedstock for PEM applications.

I have not heard it said that a PEM fuel cell could operate on less pure hydrogen or ammonia. I wonder if that is right as I thought this is a function of alkaline fuel cells rather than a function of the membrane. If it does render PEMs able to use less pure feedstock then one of the AFC cell's USPs is undermined, but Alkamem will rule the world!

Many thanks indeed Nickel......that's all really helpful

42p sounds like a credible and realistic target (remember the days when the house broker used to put figures such as 232p on it!). Would give a MCap of about £190m.

I reckon you can double that as Alkamem becomes appreciated.

Thanks again.

I was just pondering a bit re Alkamem. I think the potential here is significant.

We are told that there is a $1bn market for Nafion alone. We have been told that De Nora has independently assessed it and found the results to be above expectations. On this basis:

1. Should we not expect an early announcement re increased take up of Alkamem by De Nora as the benefits for them should be marked.

2. Might not DuPont wish to protect their market by entering into some sort of discussion re rights to use Alkamem or a licensing arrangement with AFC? Such an arrangement could be worth tens to hundreds of millions if the stuff is as good as suggested. AB suggested on Friday that the margins are excellent on Nafion....let's presume 33%. And let's say AFC secure just 10% of the Nafion market. That's a profit of £33m. At a PE ratio of 25 that supports a MCap from Alkamem alone of £825m. Or about £1.80 a share.

Happy for my assumptions to be challenged. (except by BMac)

Also, have AFC checked that Bubble wrap doesn't do the same thing Alkamem does? Is our market share already under threat? And can you spemd hours of fun popping Alkamem like you can Bubble wrap? We need to know.
Suddenly BMacs long essays seem far from comprehensive....he really hasn't thought it all through......

Wrong on all counts BMac.

You say all fuel cells can do this. Not economically they can't, Because they cant use cracked ammonia.

Your arguments are repetitive and, whilst you are entitled to your view, the rest of us can see right through them and you. However much you say the earth is flat, it doesn't make it so.

Sadly i pressed the recommend button for your post erroneously.

Why don't you run along and leave this board for those who are invested in AFC to discuss. It's all a bit sad otherwise.

A very informative presentation today. I had the pleasure of sitting next to Bumble B and Jimmynan and I know the former made copious notes and will produce an excellent report either here or on ii. I encourage all to read it. Most of the points of note have already been made here but there were two things that stayed with me which I'll mention briefly if I may.

The first is that after 4 years of concentrating on the R&D and tech with the prospect of a commercial launch being somewhere in the future AB was very keen not to talk about the tech today, saying openly that that is all done and the product is ready to go. Questions of longevity for example are no longer of concern to them. This is a company that is now in the business of selling products and innovation, and not just inventing.

Secondly, the flexibility of the AFC system is only just becoming apparent to me. Apart from being highly adaptable and responsive to individual client needs I liked the following. It is well accepted that people would like to replace their dirty diesel back up generators. It was also discussed at length how EV charging systems in the work place will be needed, but that the local grid may often not be up to it (examples were cited). Well one AFC fuel cell tackles both problems . The fuel cell can power the EV chargers, but switch to back up power generation as and when necessary. So back up power solutions that currently sit there most of the time doing nothing can now be sitting there making an on going contribution.

I remain uncertain as to how quickly AFC will grow and how quickly the SP might rise. But I am more convinced than ever that this will be a billion pound business at some point.

Dear All

It seems that BMAC is going to concede nothing and is unable to take a balanced view. He has become very repetitive and his motives are unclear.

Please stop responding to him.

Doc

Sorry, my post earlier was tuncated. It should have ended:

I'm looking forward to Friday, although I am not expecting the fireworks some seem to be. I think it is simply another event in what is an increasingly well-managed progression.

Good luck to all

Doc.

PS: In trust should have been in truth, and AFRC is of course AFC. Apols for the typos. Fat fingers on a small phone.

Hi Beachandsurf

Re your post of 1120 today, thank you for thinking of me.

In answer to your question, yes I am a lot more positive about AFC now.

I haven't posted much since the AGM. That's for two reasons. In the run up to the AGM I was getting somewhat disillusioned with AFC after a decade supporting them and felt my posts had become a little too negative. Secondly, the AGM gave me a degree of confidence once more and I thought I would lay low and see what transpired.

To be honest I was not convinced about the shift to EV charging with the announcement early last year. I felt it to be just another potential application of a technology that had still not been made to work at a price that would be affordable. I felt it was a stalling tactic.

If I an honest I am still not sure that the Ev charging market will be our holy grail. But there is so much more to be positive about than there was pre the AGM. The De Nora partnership is one thing. Their view seems to be that the AFC product is world class and they are supporting that with resource. Moreso I am enthused by two innovations. The first is the high density smaller solid fuel cell. I think this will open up markets that will be very significant to us. The second is Alkamem. I don't think the significance of this has been appreciated or priced in yet. If it is as good as the hype just a small share of the billion dollar market will re-rate the SP considerably.

In the background is the political and social agenda. This seems to be well aligned with the AFRC cause. It really does feel as though the time for hydrogen has arrived….one can barely opan a newspaper these days without reading something on it.

I am not sure if the changes in AFC's fortunes is down to AB or not. I have been critical of him in the past, but I think the changes since the beginning of November are impressive, and the news flow was excellent. In trust I think it is part him and part serendipity. He has my vote at present, but I also feel there were errors in the past.

So what of the future for AFC. On the balance of probabilities I think it is positive. I don't know how positive but I was interested to read about Oxford Nanopore today which has reached the fabled unicorn status (ie worth over £1 Bn) on revenues of just £32m and despite a £53m loss. AFC may well be the first fuel cell company to make a profit and £32m is just 3% of the Alkamem market. That would mean a SP over £2. And then there is the potential from the fuel cells themselves to consider.

I think there is a real opportunity here and when the market sees it (ie when we have orders for the cells or for the membrane) I think the market cap will be considerably higher than it is now. I have backed up my sentiments by increasing ym holding by around 50% since the AGM.

I'm looking forward to Friday, although I am not expecting the fireworks some seem to be. I think it is simply another event in what is an increasingly well-mana

Chippy
BumbleB
jimmynan
Eddietheo + 2
Notes & Mrs Notes
IWantThatOne
Junior
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Doc7

See you all there!

Doc

I would be happy to be involved in any meeting Notes. As you say, I think the chances of one happening are very low. I wrote formally to Rennocks quite a few weeks ago to remind him of the promise he made to my questions at the AGM and have been ignored. That is regretful and casts doubt upon his ability to act honourably, something I value in a chairman.
Let's hope we start to see some fireworks. Not sure much will happen in December so we only have about 7 weeks of Q4 left for it all to come good.

Another piece of information that suggests Rennocks is not fit for his role.

LOL

An excellent point well made BumbleB