Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I don't see that.
From a chart perspective, I wouldn't be surprised if the weekly low will be made today or tomorrow.
I also wouldn't be surprised if the "drop' allowed a VIP to accumulate a few million. Will be looking at the delayed trades.
1.88p is the next likely upside destination, imo.
Much better than a quick spike on the back of a Monday RNS resulting in a sell off and horrible bearish weekly pin candle as we had July last year. That peak formed a downward trendine which is why 1.87/8 is important this week or next. The 200day vwma is also there.
I don't think the RNS was all that bad. People up in arms over having been diluted last year when, without the CLN, there would have needed to have been some sort of fundraise in the absence of the interest payments. Money returned in one lump sum, yes minus tax and legal blah blah. But the landscape is different now and it puts AMC in a strong cash position which doesn't hurt if negotiating any type of future deals.
Some here have been talking at length that RY needs to sit on it until the Nickel price reaches an optimal point. Well, technically the cash is there to do that for a couple more years if that's what you really wish.
Personally, I still think Kun Manie will be sold in 2021/22.
This RNS though does illustrate that when a company doesn't update the corporate pages of its website with RY (NRR) and when AMC clarifies on June 30 what its cash position is if it were no longer to receive interest payments, that it may be worth reading in to the nuances than just explaining it away to maintain one's preferred scenario.
Good luck to all genuine holders.
Yes, nice to see life.
No implosion within. And those trades yesterday had certainly made me briefly lose the faith.
Would have loved to have read about Habib etc..
My only concern was the last sentence of one paragraph in the "Going Concern" section.
"The Directors have reviewed the Group's cash flow forecast for the period to 31 December 2022 and note that the Group's ability to continue to meet its obligations as and when they fall due is dependent on a variety of factors, one being the receipt of quarterly interest payments from NRR in respect of the convertible loan facility. Should no further quarterly interest payments be received from the date of this report, it is foreseen that cash will run out in April 2022."
Why should no quarterly interest be received from the date of this report? Doesn't it pay out until conversion in 2023 and wasn't there mention of interest payments until Q3 2023 in the second paragraph of the Chairman's Statement within the same rns?
Just thought mentioning even the potential of a premature stop of interest payments was strange.
Thanks for that, Rover.
Well, the main stock exchange page makes it look like 2 cents. But it now seems that page rounds up dollar values to the nearest cent, hence the two dollar trades both showing 2 cents, even if they were at different prices.
The api data makes me more concerned as it seems to be 1.6 cents which is actually 1.15p. The dollar trade value of $42,645 dollars would also match the £30,720 pounds our LSE site displays.
So, to me, that is cause for some concern.
Who would take £10,400 less by selling 30% ish below today's mid-market when they could have subtly sold in 260k packets at 1.55p every day the last week? Unless they heard something this afternoon...or they proofread the RNS...
Maybe I'm wrong, maybe it's a fat finger, dollar/pound error for whoever placed the trade and it will be corrected tomorrow.
If it isn't, I'm concerned they may have been the first to jump out before a selling frenzy.
Anyway, whatever price it was, I think that trade suggests news is a certainty tomorrow.
It was at $0.02 which I make around the 1.44p level. I can't see how 2 cents can be as high as 1.6p so it looks like a sell to me. Biggest single tranche I've seen here in a while.
Hopefully it was someone who bought last year at the lows and got spooked with the deafening silence and was happy to take profits or break even and find prospects with rather more reliable confidence-instilling newsflow.
Hopefully it wasn't someone who was given a head's up about the content of tomorrow morning's almost certain RNS...
If someone had been selling late in the day at such a loss (1.15p) relative to the current market, I would be resigned to expect sub 1p tomorrow. So I was very relieved to check the level 2 and discover it was a dollar trade.
Fingers crossed for at least not a dilution/suspension disaster if the inevitable RNS does come tomorrow, that we get confirmation that any legalities since the AGM or resulting from Habib (La Tourelle/Carlo/NRR) hasn't put the company in any kind of additional precarious position. Dilution to cover legal plus stock in lieu of salary anyone?
However, if concrete TEO news or if sale discussions are announced or hinted in the "this is wtf we have been up to in the last 7 months" paragraph of the rns, then it may just all end up being good and finally a breakout on the chart.
Crossing fingers. Only holding 1m at 2.25p, which I know is a smaller holding than quite a few here, but feeling a bit meh about it this evening...
Also wondering what will happen to the share price if RY stays silent and there's no RNS by tomorrow's deadline.
Fingers crossed and GLA.
MD, you may well be right. I hope you are.
Yes, the companies mentioned helped facilitate deals being done and "making sure Habib and his wife made their corn".
My fear is that the contract drawn up to deal with the Carlo facility was rather more than the paragraph or two given in the RNS and I would be surprised if there hadn't been a clause to protect Habib's Glencore interests and job at Amur. After all, what would stop any company welcoming in a new influential employee, utilising their contacts, taking over the employee's subsidiary to complete related transactions and then oust said employee within 6 months of completing the deal.
I personally can't imagine a contract being drawn up and signed without Habib/La Tourelle having some kind of protective clause put in place offering some safe guarding for a couple of years.
I'm guessing we'll find out a fair bit in the next few days.
Seems strange to erase a brief position from your cv unless you are either embarrassed by it or are the one who caused the embarrassment. Or, maybe, you have a good idea the company is screwed.
But there is so much strange about Amur Minerals and its lack of communication on answering the real questions we've all had since December 2020. Nothing has been explained to shareholders.
People didn't seem to think it much of a big deal when I mentioned it around a month ago but there is still no mention of any Amur BOD representative on the Nathan River Resources company profile page since they took down profiles for Adam and Rob which mentioned their connection to Amur Minerals.
Yes, Robin Young was nominated to replace but only nominated, as far as I can tell.
Find me any mention of "Robin Young" "AMC", "Amur Minerals", "Carlo Holdings" on the NRR website. It's as if Amur has no involvement which is fairly interesting considering their CLN investment gave them a seat on the board.
"CHL and Glencore will each be entitled to a seat on the boards of Nathan River Resources and NRR Group Pty Ltd, the NRR Australian holding company." (August 2020)
Glencore rep is still listed on the BOD page.
And it's probably this AMC, Adam and Glencore failed mutually beneficial back-scratching relationship that may have a part to play behind the scenes.
After all...
"Acquisition of Carlo Holdings Limited
Amur has entered into an agreement with La Tourelle Consulting Limited (“La Tourelle”), a consultancy firm which is beneficially owned by Adam Habib’s spouse, to acquire the entire issued share capital of Carlo Holdings Limited (“CHL”) for £1.00 (the “Acquisition”), conditional on Admission (as defined below).
CHL is a recently incorporated special purpose company established for the purpose of completing this transaction which is wholly-owned by La Tourelle. La Tourelle, certain consultants to La Tourelle (the “La Tourelle Consultants”) and Adam Habib have been working with Glencore for some time and more specifically on the Roper Bar Project since March 2020. La Tourelle is due to receive a cash fee of US$151,775 and 6,671,429 new ordinary shares of no par value in Amur as part of its remuneration (“La Tourelle Shares”). Furthermore, warrants over 4,105,495 ordinary shares exercisable at 1.75 pence per share will be granted, in the aggregate, to the La Tourelle Consultants.
On completion of the Acquisition, CHL will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Amur and Amur will become the indirect beneficiary of the agreements that CHL has entered into." (August 2020)
Anyway, it's all speculation as, like everyone else here, nobody on this board actually knows anything at all about what's really going on.
Am still holding 1m with the hope of a half decent buyout deal but also well aware I may lose it all in this all or nothing investment.
At least the silence has gone on so long now that we are bound to hear, one way or another, very soon.
Apologies if this has already been discussed but I noticed that Amur's subsidiary Irosta Trading Limited had two filings in Cyprus relating to
ALTERATION OF OFFICERS AND OF THEIR PARTICULARS
HE4-Notification of change of Officers and of their particulars
Letter
that were made on December 10, 2020 which, as it so happens, was the same date as the Amur AGM which took place in the UK. Not enough information to tell if they were filed in Cyprus during the hour or two before the AGM, or after.
I can't seem to reach the content of the filings - only the above headings. Anyone know what exactly was changed with the "alteration of officers" of Amur's subsidiary and what was in the "Letter"?
If you search for the subsidiary name, you'll find these filing headings on the Open Corporates website.
Myself included, Barwick, SalvaRx ended up being great - just like I feel FastForward will. But it certainly wasn't a straight line - 2017/18 price action before the deal really illustrates that.
And Portage - well, anything Greg Bailey touches - is likely to be even bigger than anyone expects. Great guy!
Ooh, I'm not 100% sure who founded Kuala. Yes, of course, Mellon was present as an Executive Director from Kuala (pre-FFWD) days (did he found it?) and the company got renamed seemingly to tie in with Jim's latest book at the time. However, I've always felt Lorne's involvement (and significant holding) was much more than just a regular CEO which is probably why I feel him as a kind of founder (after the name change) and certainly when considering the FastForward of today. Jim seems to largely be looking elsewhere these days and the cannabis focused portfolio does still tie in with Abony's interests (EMMAC (chairman) and Nuuvera (CEO) which Aphria bought being two good examples of former FFWD assets).
I would imagine the relationship between Lorne and Ed at Emmac will only benefit FastForward in the future, just as the relationship between Jim and Greg with Portage and Juvenesence / AgeX / LyGenesis should also do.
Let's see what's happens! GLA!
I really think the point is being missed. It keeps on being said by people like Ctw2014 because it's a fact.
Barwickman, you say "usually they buy". Can you give 3 examples of other CEOs of hedge fund type companies which own chunks of other companies where the CEO is also either founder/MD or on the board of the owned companies and about to do a deal where they have then ALSO purchased stock in the overriding hedge fund before market sensitive discussions in the owned assets have been announced or completed?
Just curious.
I'm not sure Ed has any warrants, does he?
Anyway, I don't really think Ed will care if he ends up buying at 8p, 12p or 17p. Let's not forget there's an accelerator clause above 17p. Many are looking at 40p+ targets. But let's also not forget Lorne Abony who set up FFWD founded other companies in the past from an equally low mcap to around $500m Canadian. Abony is still invested here and took more stock instead of fees. So if Ed misses the first 100% of a move, it's really going to be of no major consequence to him IF he has the intention of building the company to an mcap much greater than 100m (c.47p) and holding his stock for the longterm.
Anyhow, that's how I see it.
The share price suppression is frustrating and doesn't make much sense to me (particularly considering there are far fewer bargains in the market compared to a year ago) but it wouldn't be the first Jim Mellon involved stock that has strangely been a victim of this and, apart from the odd spike, has underperformed and been a bit lacklustre. SalvaRx also springs to mind as having had rather significant disconnects between price and reality at times. Condor Gold does have political risks but also hasn't had any of the excitement of other gold companies during this very volatile and bullish year. Agronomics is the only one which currently bucks this trend. But, at the end of the day, assuming everything with FFWD's current assets is above board and assets are disposed of at fair and open market values, there is little to worry about...for now. Fast Forward should have its day - and by that, I don't just mean a one day spike!
Currently hold 350k shares.
Good luck to all holders.
Can totally see your point, Barwickman but I really don't think there is anything mysterious going on here. And I don't think it says anything about EML being a better buy short term.
There's just no additional conflict for him there over and above being a NED. With FastForward, their number one asset was EMMAC (particularly when they became cannabis focussed) where he is Co-founder and MD for UK and then, when that was sold off, their number one asset became LEAP which FastForward own almost half of and where he was appointed to their Board to assist with the IPO. That's a very different involvement for him compared to EML.
If he doesn't feel there are acceptable ways for him to buy shares prior to the Leap IPO, I would imagine he will only be able to buy on any pullback when 12p warrants are exercised.
Don't get me wrong, I also wish he had a million or couple million shares in the company right now - it would certainly make the current status of the company even more investable.
It's not as if he's only been at FFWD for 6 months... BUT he did have a similar conflict when EMMAC was an integral part of the portfolio, didn't he?
etank, I can totally relate to the frustration you and Dextrose have with the current situation. I'm with you on that.
But vetoing certain re-appointments is just not going to happen - assuming the company ever has another AGM.
Habib not being re-appointed certainly sent the wind up somebody's sails... ...and that hardly helped as we've heard nothing since.
Except there's been a CFO departure and Marsden didn't want to stay on.
The timing of those two departures are fairly conclusive signs that this company is likely at the end of its journey.
Kun Manie will be sold on. The question remaining is whether shareholders are going to be shafted on any deal or not.
As Dextrose wonders, I don't really need to know any more about NRR. I'm well aware how much AMC receives from the CLN. But, let's be honest, it's barely enough to continue current work, maintain the company, all whilst paying for many months of legal dispute. Because it would appear that lawyers are still dealing with fallout from the last AGM - "The Company is consulting with its BVI and UK Lawyers on the implications of the shareholder vote and will make a further statement in due course." - RNS, December 10, 2020.
No statement given, as yet.
What is clear, NDAs or no NDAs, is that this company has been extremely shady about everything it's been up to since December 2020. And, therefore, it's natural to place more importance on nuances. And so my thoughts about the NRR website and and the omission of any AMC member being listed as currently on the NRR board make me wonder whether any discussions that may or may not be taking place are for an imminent takeover of Amur and all it's assets and subsidiaries and not just Kun Manie.
In which case, I still am holding some optimism that Robin Young will know his salary here is inevitably coming to an end and will therefore be very eager for his 6.4million shares + 3.9million allocated share options to provide him a good lump sum for the next stage of his life. And that should, ultimately, be good for all shareholders.
MD, yes, I've seen the April 1st RNS stating
"The Board of Amur through its wholly owned subsidiary Carlo Holdings has NOMINATED Robin Young as his replacement."
But "nominated" doesn't seem to suggest that the reccomendation is confirmed and accepted by NRR. Does it?
Added to that, the RNS mentioned Marsden stepping down from the NRR board, not Habib.
Just seems strange that, at some point between May and June (1-2 months after the RNS), NRR would update the BOD page on their website, remove Habib and Marsden and not update it with Young.
I wouldn't normally care about such subtle details - it could be an oversight, after all. Then again, I didn't particularly care about AMC's last AGM which I thought would be a formality and look what happened there...
I'm still crossing fingers. Holding 1m shares.
Following on, I re-found the news about Rob Marsden not wanting to renew with Amur and stepping down from the NRR board and Carlo Holdings nominating Robin Young...
But it just seems strange that, currently, there is no Amur representative mentioned on the NRR website.
On discovering the Roper Valley Iron Ore Project was recently sold to the Vietnamese steel maker Hoa Phat, I did some additional looking around as it seemed just too similarly named to the NRR Roper Bar Iron Ore Operation for my liking.
I've noted on the NRR website that both Adam Habib and Rob Marsden are no longer mentioned on the Board of Directors page. Habib's name was definitely there when I last checked on May 9th. Archive dot org show both names there back in January. No new names have replaced them.
Not sure if that means anything in relation to Amur.
But it seems this was the situation in the recent past...
"Under the terms of the convertible loan note, Amur is entitled to a seat on the boards of Nathan River Resources and NRR Group Pte Ltd. Adam Habib, President of Amur, is now on the Board of Nathan River Resources, and Mr. Robert Marsden who was nominated by Amur, has been appointed to the Board of NRR Group Pte Ltd.
Mr. Marsden is a Mining Engineer with over 25 years of international experience, 18 of those years with Rio Tinto."
This has NOTHING to do with the CEO or credibility.
None of the recent issues dented my trust in Craig Brown. People are free to interpret and have their opinions but I don't feel he has been unreliable in any way. Things change, timescales shift, not everything works ideally, there are stumbling blocks, JV partners may have misled or delayed ECR and become flaky but the underlying reason to invest hasn't deviated whatsoever.
Today's move or lack of is purely spread and price action based.
The RNS didn't really say much more than we already knew - except just a reiteration of game on.
The wide spread suggests some kind of absorption / reversal. And, from a purely price action basis, no investor wants this to spike on the basis of this RNS alone.
The healthiest and most likely scenario is that the spread will narrow, price will rise tomorrow, maybe even get bid at 2p or higher and secure a weekly close of at least 1.97p (really a close anything above last Friday's high would be perfect). Healthy then for any real good news rns in the coming weeks to trade and retest the levels traded in mid to end of December 2020 and then challenge the previous 52 week high (it's a yearly 2020 and current multi-year high, let's not forget) from December 29.
Don't believe me - just look at a weekly MFI (money flow index - for those that don't know, it's like an rsi but includes volume) and see where the indicator is on the chart. Case closed.
Good post Legalwolf, too.
Yes, we may not entirely agree on CB.
I certainly give him the benefit of the doubt.
I feel too many (not talking about you, though) see the CEO role as merely making the share price go from one support to resistance, turn to new support to next resistance and any direction in the "wrong" way is a total failure on their part.
Let's not forget the JV discussions were largely remote during Covid - a lot was placed on opening up and people getting on site and this could have been much more of a mislead and delaying tactic from the potential JV partners than anyone at ECR intentionally misleading shareholders.
Based on the prospects they hold, I don't feel there is any need for ECR to mislead shareholders.
I feel he has explained the placing enough. Potentially Novum seem to have twisted his arm to not cancel it (or maybe they even pushed him down the fundraise path) and he's clearly not revealing all Oprah-style. But I personally don't need him to.
This is a long term play - at least for him and the company. I look at the CEO - background, approach, get a sense of what he's about - but most things in investing for me are mcap / value based - and then the more technical chart data elements.
If he really lost investors completely because of this, well...more fool them. Let them take their money to Premier and Vast with their superior CEOs and there'll for sure do so much better there...not.
JV or not, if you're going to sell out of a Victoria gold company at less than £18m mcap with cash in hand, a drill rig, contracting a third party rig at CresWick (of course, because who needs a second rig if you're only going to dig a couple holes to get a JV signed), then I think investing may not be their forte.
Craig seems to be getting the entire blame for the entire % slippage in price from 52-week high. But that is simply unfair. The slippage was already there so the placing couldn't get done in the 3p range (30-40% below the high). So there was a discount and some marginal dilution based on an unwise placing but, based on the upside, this is a complete non-story.
So, it is annoying that money gets tied up for a few more weeks/months for many investors than they intended (because everyone - including me - thought 5/6 or 7/8p at least initially, but it's really nothing more than a minor inconvenience in my opinion for those that believe in the long term prospects and can see 20p++ on the right news.
CB may not be the most natural public speaker but I only really care if he can negotiate and knows his geology. What used to be clear was that he was passionate & open about his love of the resources and that seems to be more guarded now.
Yes, he did pick up the interviewer on CresWick but I'd seen countless posts here and elsewhere in the 2 weeks prior ridiculing him over his pronunciation ("he can't even get that right"). So, I had a feeling Craig had been reading the bbs to actually make that point in the re
I don't think it's accurate to say Craig has made a mess of it.
I am extremely happy to be invested in a company he runs. Let's compare to others like Colin Bird, George Roach, or Andrew Bell who have really been past masters of diluting and providing lacklustre shareholder value. Who would you rather invest in?
Of course, I think the recent ECR fundraise was largely unnecessary and primarily failed due to slippage. And Craig openly admits, in hindsight, this was probably unwise. But the slippage was not his making. You only need to look at other shares destined for the moon like Orosur (and Alien to a lesser extent) and the sell off from recent highs was a common theme among junior miners.
So, a little share price depression. But mess it is not. Craig's job is to develop mining assets, ideally deliver a resource, and create LONGterm shareholder value.
Many months ago, when he was talking comparisons to Fosterville, he even mentioned "trading" the price fluctuations over the near future. It's a clear indication he expected peaks and troughs.
Too many armchair experts expect instant price action to take quick profit 100%+ profits. Do that - fine - but know your chart/market profile/L2 rules to avoid an unwise entry. Don't forget, current price is still 200% above last year. The clue is in the word - share"holder".
Getting more info at CresWick to secure a JV seems sensible (especially if Craig needs to justify HIS asking price/terms) and having more cash in the bank doesn't seem all that foolish if any potential JV partners are going to use prior cashflows as a reason to squeeze on any more beneficial JV terms...
Yes, CEOs should be given a roasting if they get things really wrong but some of the comments criticising his stage presence and how he can't say CresWick correctly (even though he does) just seems poor form and counter productive. He should be focussing on managing the company and communicating with his past level of palpable excitement about the resources, not watching his every word worrying if he's going to be trolled for his pronunciation.
Worst thing about ECR are the "pr" communications. When they regurgitate old info and flog the company with the desperation of trying to flog a second-hand Datsun, it does make one wonder if the company is as quality as I believe it to be. But I think that's down to a poor choice of pr representative whose approach just doesn't resonate with most serious investors. I'm sure ECR will listen to investor tweets and make changes on that front in due course when contracts come up for renewal.
Long term holder since 2016 - sold in July 2020. Rebought and holding 870k shares @ 1.89p since last autumn.
Good to see some 1m share trades go through today. Current 52-week high will definitely be broken in 2021 imo so I have no concerns currently.
Whilst I understand the recent sentiment (because the most recent portfolio strategy was centred around what EMMAC stood for), nothing has really changed. This is an investment company that buys bits of things to hopefully sell on for a profit. That's it. So it's the team that are investable just as much as the assets they choose to buy in to.
The share is really getting oversold. Roughly half of the current mcap is now pretty much what they hold in cash. And they have exciting prospects in the near term, not to mention what they may buy in to next.
Yes, all the protagonists know each other well but that is often the case in Jim Mellon vehicles. You only need to look at Declan Doogan, Greg Bailey, Ian Walters and many others and they all point back to JM companies or investments whether it be Portage, SalvaRX, Manx Financial etc. etc..
Personally, I think that's a good thing. That JM sold a small % of his sizeable holding is a non-event. It was at a resistance level when he sold and, under normal circumstances, it's around the time I would consider selling but my holding here is for the longer term. He is probably selling to balance his own portfolio - although significantly wealthy, he's probably been holding on to Condor Gold full size for a little longer than he expected and he's rather removed himself from FastForward.
So, obviously, I'm a little frustrated that the parameters have been changed and I didn't sell at around 14p (as I would if I were more trading the stock) and rebuy. But, anyone with a primary school education of chart reading can see that the ascending trend resistance on the monthly mean 40p+ will be touched at some point on positive newsflow - that would tie in with a ~80m Mcap or greater level.
So, whilst I understand the frustration, I'm just going to let it do its thing.
Who knows, maybe Ed will buy in now Emmac is moving elsewhere. Of course, people who have complained that he wasn't invested will then complain if he does because he will have got in at 9p. But if weak longs hadn't sold, he wouldn't have had that opportunity.
I am a longterm holder, first buying in September 2016, and currently hold 350,000 shares at an average of 8.45p.
Maybe some short term. But, unless retail investors haven't been told something that insiders already know, I'd be surprised if the size would amount to much.
There are so many better opportunities to short, in my opinion.
It would be a brave shorter to short a company only valued at 25m with a new Phase III on the way (funded), the potential of other territory or Rest of World deals dropping any time and potential newsflow on other assets within such a low mcap company. The risk/reward doesn't seem to be there at the moment for any sensible shorter to hold on for long after this initial 15% drop.
I'd say bullish pin by end of day, end of week latest, back to 11p area.