The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
I have minimal drilling knowledge and therefore rely on others. My question is, if the highly encouraging gas show in the red sandstone formation continued over a longer depth, would it not make sense to case the well at more regular intervals in order to protect the formation from mud saturation that would make it harder to recover gas samples as part of the third stage of the recovery process? This in turn justifying the slower drill speed?
To date we are aware via RNS of three casing intervals to approx 500m
I think they would be drilling at 740/770m today if we assume that the cementing of the casing that was referred to in last Tuesday’s interview was dry and ready to drill from Wednesday. I am again assuming 30m drill depth a day.
As was mentioned in that interview, a dry well would be drilled faster, an encouraging well would be drilled slower and would also allow them to gain significant knowledge as to how to drill the next 2/3 wells in quicker fashion regardless of the outcome.
Beautiful rain, beautiful :-)
Intensify. It is my opinion that the market will get wind of a submitted RNS if we were to see a week day publication that doesn’t fall on a Monday. They will potentially swing it low or high, this won’t necessarily be indicative of the result once RNS’d but will be enough to cause an increase in volume and wild speculation.
Can’t wait!
We won’t even enter the primary zone until the 2/3rd August at a drill speed of 30m a day as per previous drill rate discussions.
I can understand why some peoples risk tolerance is different, but I’m not sure why anyone would want to exit during the drilling of the effective ‘Payzone’, or more specifically the stacked targets of interest.
However, it’s a very good sign for when the next RNS lands in terms of forward projection of price in the event of good news.
It was a ‘UT’ and the book still very much remains at the mid price before close. Watch it open at that mid price. Chill!
DM is now known to hold info. and specifically gas shows back from the market. It was possible that he could of announced the last gas show earlier, but decided to hold it back which was a smart move.
I think further information will be provided on that gas show once they hit the next. IMO we should be entering the first zone at around 700m today, the next 4 trading days could offer some excitement.
This could be the perfect storm. If/when further positive news is delivered to the market, as investors have taken money off the table across a broad range of equities, we should see plenty of free capital waiting to be reallocated to those with positive momentum.
I really hope that the next RNS ‘gas show’ will contain percentage of helium as well as total thickness.
I have wondered that if the last reported gas show continues over an extended depth that they may drop the wireline for this area early. This early data may help them choose their next target at an early stage, especially if the red sandstone is more prospective than first thought. Is that possible at this stage?
Your welcome.
Posts from 16th May I believe, hope that helps
D,
Taken from @seisprocessor and his/her valuable contribution to date. Well worth clicking on historical posts as lots of useful contribution, i am sure you have engaged before?
Reported as a buy given the spread but in all honesty it could just as easily be a worked sell as the booked turned a little negative in the last 10 minutes or so. It’s anyone’s guess, but if it is our persistent seller, that could be one and done.
Hi D,
I have the first target zone at 700m, after this their is a series of vertical stacked targets to drill through prior to the primary target towards TD.
Based on what we know and the widely discussed drill rate of 30m a day, as soon as tomorrow we should be entering the first main target, if we haven’t already.
Hi DP,
With all due respect and without wanting to sound like a smart ars*. It’s not the market makers that are dictating price, it’s the market based on perceived risk v reward. We have seen the market over the last several weeks experience a sustained period of low liquidity and risk off, potentially over high inflation concerns and the effectiveness of the vaccines which is a whole different debate. If it wasn’t due to current market conditions I believe the share price would already be towards the top end of the trading range.
@30m drill depth a day, I believe the general consensus is that following casing of the sidetrack they are likely through the last reported gas show and will be drilling through what is likely to be highly prospective ground to TD as even an inefficient seal has proven to be an effective seal.
With the benchmark significantly reduced and the reported shows to date continuing to reduce the risk profile of the investment, I see no reason for this not to be consolidating around 28p awaiting next news.
Great link.
You see the stars are aligning and while the sector has seen a rerating due to the initiation of Helium exploration thanks to the accelerating cost of Helium, I don’t for one minute think the bull cycle in helium stocks has even touched the surface.
New investors and existing investors reallocating the percentage weighting of their portfolio, which in the immediate term will have different risk weightings/appetite will enter the equation as the story progresses. For me you can’t help but appreciate the strategic nature of this mineral, it’s one hell of a story.
I think a late decision based on what is learnt during the drilling of Tai-1 is highly likely and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the rig staying on Tai for at least the next 3 weeks.
This certainly is anything but a dry hole and much can be learnt from this drill in a frontier basin regardless of cost. $1.2m per well, if it doubled, as a shareholder, no bother.
One thing is for sure, we are now entering the most interesting part of the drilling schedule. This period should contain multiple gas shows and give us a strong indication as to what we can expect throughout the campaign.
Loving Monday’s, not been this excited since the early days of Gulf Keystone and Eco Atlantic. Game changing potential in what is otherwise a crap market.
Hi skittish,
I agree, the shareholder register is dominated by private and high net worth investors. We need to see the resources proven up during this drilling campaign to attract the appropriate partners who would perhaps take a stake in the company and inadvertently fund the Capex to production and also provide other key corporate strategic benefits which is the more valuable benefit to any partnership.
In affect we are putting our capital at risk for this potential payday whereby our investment is derisked by partnering, strategic investment or debt following a commercial discovery. All indications would suggest that the size of the prize and that it is strategic in nature would attract such interest.
Helium as a commodity is of particular interest to me. While many early investors have seen 4/10x return, my recent investment still feels derisked on the basis of the gas shows to date and the additional 2/3 wells that are yet to be drilled. It’s not until the end of this drilling campaign that the full early revaluation will be realized.
An interesting note on ARB and the respective rumors.
In an earlier post a week or so back I mentioned how strategic assets would be of interest to both countries and large corporations alike. For example Tesla purchased a percentage of Piedmont Lithium thus securing lithium supply for its own means. Many other examples can be provided, however the strategic nature of what could transpire to be a resource price sensitive asset at Rukwa will not be left unfunded and IMO it would be in Helium One’s interest to get major corporation involved to both accelerate commercialization and to help build a strong long lasting relationship with Tanzania with the clout of a major corporation/country behind it.
As is the case with most African countries, China has a major strategic relationship with Tanzania and is a major contributor towards the countries national debt.
Exxon Mobil is one of the main suppliers globally of Helium, again offering a strategic advantage to Helium One in terms of distribution, finance, expertise and it’s obvious ties to America.
But you get my drift, a strategic partnership would both fund major production facilities, help reduce a countries or corporations environmental footprint and more importantly help control a strategic resource in terms of both supply and price.
Yes we have to find it first, but this is now a proven active basin capable of producing significant amounts of Helium at a level that could and will be considered world leading. As a primary Helium resource with historical O&G drilling identifying the appropriate rock formations for the potential commercial storage of helium, even the most inefficient of seals has proven to be effective during the drill to date. In itself significantly lowering the benchmark and derisking what could transpire to be a World class asset. Its not often you get to say that we have a UK/European listed small cap asset for those looking for Helium exposure within their portfolio, and only one place to turn to without looking to Canada/U.S/Australia.
The next two weeks could blow our minds and surpass all expectations.
I would say that some cohorts of the market will always have a tendency of over estimating. (Drill depth).
For me, with what has been clearly communicated to date through various media steams, the well has been successfully sidetracked and as of Tuesday cased. Cased to a level approaching the late 400’s or early 500’s prior to drilling down through the previous gas show and beyond.
As a geologist, I believe the data from the previous show will be analyzed for early release next week with the ‘potential’ for an additional show lower down in multiple instances.
They will continue to report all elevated gas shows as they go deeper, for every show the probability of a successful payzone increases. These truly are exciting times, the next two weeks will more than demonstrate that.
We are privileged to be in a position whereby real time data is shared as they drill to depth. This somewhat derisks the investment.
If you get the opportunity to read in full the article shared earlier today from Bloomberg, I would strongly advise you do. Any serious investor would be and should be drooling at the mouth right now.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-08-28/we-re-running-out-of-helium-and-helium-one-might-have-a-fix
See the earlier link to bypass the payment firewall.