The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
The last placing of note was in June 2021. As far as i am aware (bar the odd option?) the shares in issue now mirror those in issue back then.
In July 2021 the SP was in the 30's. Today it is 8.6p. The decline in SP isnt due to dilution, which is a usual reason on AIM for SP decline.
So, despite the progression of the business over the past 14 months the value of DVRG has fallen by approx 75%. From what i can see there is no business related reason why the SP has fallen. The fundamentals remain strong and triple digit growth is expected for another year.
So, you have to ask the question, why has the SP/mcap fallen so much? For me, it is down to the following:
- macro political events (Ukraine)
- imminent recession (shrinking of the UK economy)
- background seller of shares (Hellium?)
To me, the above three points are temporary. MW is the gold standard of water monitoring and STC may be an absolute juggernaut that is starting to take off, amonst other strings to the company's bow (labskin, BT etc). How all of this can be worth less than £20m is astounding, especially with turnover of £18m nigh on nailed on imo (conservative forecast). And therefore, if feel the DVRG SP represents brilliant value at present
Doubters will point to cashflow and the impending loan repayments, but as has been mentioned, receivables are strong (albeit a factor in poor cashflow) and the H2 turnover is expected to be at least double that of H1. All of this should indicate a sizeable boost in cash in the months since the interims, and the months ahead to YE.
The £25m mezanine loan means DVRG has the cash to sustain the growth for another couple of years, whilst the business continues to grow and starts generating serious cashflow of its own. Growth needs cash, and DVRG has access to it, albeit with unfavourable interest rates. Hopefully DVRG will make every effort to meet the repayments and refrain from converting into shares, especially with the current SP.
The biggest concern to me is any dilution, but given the sizeable holdings of GB i would like to think that this would be a last resort. The fundamentals of the business are great imo and i am happy to hold and add at these levels. The business hasn't lost 75% of its value due to the fundamentals and potential, that is for sure.
On 4th July there was an RNS confirming STC revenues of over £1m. Most, if not all, of that revenue will be in H1 2022. It is also gathering pace with recent confirmations of demand out striping supply.
Potentially STC could contribute a further £1.5-2m of revenue in the next 6 months (in the run up to Christmas), which when combined with the H1 revenue of £6.4m and order book of £8.87m should see us comfortably hit the £18m FY2022 target - with over 3 months to go!
Of course, this is dependent on the order book being recognised in H2 2022, and not slipping into H1 2023
The forecast of £18m was "conservative". I read this as a worst case scenario/easily achieveable target. An optimistic/hopeful forecast (risky to issue via an RNS) could have been in excess of £20m.
Under promise, over delivery comes to mind. All imo
I believe T.Rat is refering to receipt of funds, as opposed to inclusion in order book. It will definitely be in the order book, which at £8.87m, is looking good. If all recognised aa revenue in 2022 then we are already looking at annual revenue of around £15m, with just under three and a half months to go
Really is amazing considering what we have here.
If the business was carved up and sold individually (STC, MW etc), it would be worth way in excess of £20m imo.
The turnover may still exceed £20m this year!
I've noticed that since CF has taken a step back the SP has been in the doldrums, despite the underlying business growing.
Many a LTH was anti-CF's exuberance (in retorspect) and has classed him as a second hand car dealer type, but it was actually the one thing that pushed the SP into the 40's.
Now CF has taken a back seat, the SP is close to as bad as its been for two years. And LTH are unhappy.
There is certainly an arguement that CF was "telling porkies", certainly with regards to timelines, but who would go back to the days of a CF interview every month or two, with SP boosting results?
I am long with ORPH, as i have been since summer 2020. But it is a little frustrating that, despite business growth, the SP is performing so poorly.
Hopefully some solid results will start to turn sentiment here. The fundamentals are barnstorming in my opinion. The biggest being the fact that the business doesnt need to raise funds via the market and thus no dilution (it washes it's face).
I appreciate macro economics are a factor here too, but a reversal in the SP decline would be welcome. Perhaps a CF interview on the progress of the spin outs, NASDAQ, china, DIM would give it a kick in the right direction
That tweet was from November 2019...
https://mobile.twitter.com/brokermandaniel/status/1191703604513693696
I agrees trillsg. If a small time company invents the cure to a major disease, said cure is worth billions irrespectable of the fact that said company is small fry. Just apply that to non-public companies that are sold for millions, even billions. The value isn't set. Being listed doesn't result in transparent fair value at any one moment in time. Those that believe put far too much faith in "a share is worth what someone is willing to pay" (as far as AIM is concerned).
The fact DVRG is worth £25/30m based on an open market, in which the commodity traded is a DVRG share, doesnt mean that the IP within DVRG isn't worth more to a wider audience/market.
It is too simple to say "DVRG is only worth £25/30m MCAP based on today's share price x shares in issue, therefore every IP it has combined and more is worth £25/30m"
Just isn't true. The majority of those who have such say at present are small time investors and traders, some of whom would sell out for 10%!
I won't hasten to put a value on what DVRG has, but i am adamant it is worth more than current MCAP, and thus why i continue to hold.
The markets, in particular AIM, are influenced by macro economics, incl ukraine/cost of living/impending recession.
Does that mean that the small time investors who hold DVRG shares are the oracle on the value of what DVRG has?? Of course not. In the right hands and to the right people what DVRG has is worth ££££. The price on the AIM market does not determine that
If you disagree with this sentiment then sell and make it easier for the rest of us to buy more.
Income expected to exceed £18m. Works for me. Hopefully we can hit £20m, which is a 10% uplift on that base figure of £18m.
GB doesnt usually over egg revenue expectations. Is more of an under promise, over deliver, type of CEO - when it comes to the numbers i must stress.
I don't think they would put £18m in an RNS if they didn't think it was easily achieveable.
Considering a sale? Or perhaps a merger with a much larger entity? Someone mentioned Unilever recently
Presumably, in order to retain FCA regulation then the FCA need to be content with MODE remaining in business. FCA regulation protects an investors funds up to £85k in the event the platform goes bust.
The fact MODE is FCA regulated means that the FCA see it staying the course. Hopefully adding all the extra coins won't bring that into question
Just received an email from MODE asking me to answer a quick survey. One of the questions related to whether new coins would be of interest, and if so, which i would like to see.
I was offered a wide range, and selected them all!
Perhaps more confirmation that MODE acknowledged that it needs to offer more coins. If it can do, whilst retaining its FCA approval, MODE could be massive
Avanceon is listed on the ****stan stock exchange. It has a MCAP of 25.77bn Rs, which is approx £270m.
Per their website "Avanceon is the leading provider of industrial automation, process control and systems integration as well as proprietary energy management"
This may be true, and they may have the infrastructure to deliver on mass. But they clearly don't have the tech, as they are using DVRG's tech for water monitoring.
Still, not a bad company to be "in bed" with. It further expands the MW/DVRG name around the globe
I agree bemmacolli.
I can only imagine that this hasn't (yet) got more recognition as the contract is with Avanceon, not FIFA/Qatar directly. We are a part of a larger machine. Presumably Avanceon are being paid vast sums by FIFA/Qatar, whereas DVRG is a subcontractor, so to speak, of Acanceon and therefore will have comparatively smaller revenue
If this is the gold standard adopted by FIFA and the olympics it would stand to reason that other events would adopt it. Although it doesn't look like the athletic world championships have used it, nor the womens Euros. Perhaps cost is an issue. FIFA mens WC and the olympics are as big as it gets, with money matching to boot. Perhaps other events can't afford the surveillance. After all, MW has been engaged by a corporate entity, not the Qatar government (although you would imagine Qatar would have had some knowledge)
This is the first FIFA world cup MW has been associated i believe. The cache of that alone should see an increase in SP. The WC is happening in November, so hopefully the revenue (and cash) appears in the December 2022 accounts. The WC ends in mid December, so i can't see how any revenues from this would be deferred
Boom
Does STC not, however, provide a threat to the skin cosmetic companies?
At present thousands of products are sold in stores, many of which may do very little for consumers skin. However, that doesn't stop customers buying them.
The poundshop, for example, sells all manor of knock off skincare products that probably do little. However, STC will shine a light on the products people actually need, which in time will harm the sales of the mass crap. Just think, every Christmas the likes of boots and superdrug chuck out gift sets of bog standard moisturiser and skin care products. The type of thing endorsed by celebrities etc. This cheap crap is unlikely to get a recommendation from STC and therefore STC would indirectly be damaging the mass crap market, which makes the likes of unilever a lot of money.
Unilever love the fact that some consumers buy 10 different tubes of moisturiser, desperate to find the right one. Whether they go stale in a cuboard or chucked in a bin, Unilever still make money.
In a world where people only buy what they know is right for their skin, does it not somewhat reduce the amount of products available and thus hurts someone's bottom line? The counter arguement is, of course, that there are more sales of the "right" products, but i feel the speculative gift pack/cheap tat market takes a hit. That in itself is also a greener way to go about things, but since when did big corporations put green ahead of money?
A devils advocate view, but certainly a consideration on the old SWOT analysis
Interesting. So a local French skincare provider only needs to have "the product", not the market budget. And therefore, if this miracle panacea cures all skin conditions it will be STC that spread the word via the recommendations. STC then takes a slice of the pie.
In an ideal world (for DVRG shareholders) the need for print, tv or internet advertising for skincare is null and void as the world and his dog (eventually ;-) ) simply take an STC test and let the the results dictate what they need. Brilliant, really. DVRG just need to get the world and it's dog to know what STC is. Hopefully the brands will start spreading the word "as recommended by STC"