Member Info for deltaseeker

WOW IQE!! - Tower need the industry leader to execute the gargantuan contracts they have won - I wonder what IQE's share of this contract might be????

https://ir.towersemi.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tower-semiconductor-signs-customer-contracts-13-billion-silicon

MORE IN THE PIPELINE TO BE REVEALED.........

IQE will be presenting to US investors over the next two days in New York

Surely they might spot a small valuation differential from AXT?

IQE worth multiples of current valuation

This stock is about to exxxxxplode - listen to the Microsoft Chat GPT relationship they are working on…

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kelso-group-holdings-plc_thg-sum-of-the-parts-valuation-activity-7060171636901072897-7vbY?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

The pace of growth this company will demonstrate this year will be mind bending - their pipeline is vast and their conversion rate unrivalled with contracts emerging thick and fast - £100m of revenue this year is likely to prove conservative. In 2018 Databricks reported similar revenue and just closed 2022 at c$1Bn - this is exactly the trajectory WAND will ride, with software margins of 85% and pretty much fixed OPEX, as it scales the profitability and cash flow will be immense. A NASDAQ listing in 2023 will satisfy the existing US billionaires who dominate the share register ( Davis, Dollens and Gruber ) and on comparable multiples of US peers we are heading for a valuation multiples of the current LSE list price.....inevitably, when companies announce NASDAQ intentions they attract attention and there is a strong likelihood one of the cloud platforms try to buy this tech / co to monopolise data migration capability and monetisation of their own cloud infrastructure - if they want it they are going to have to pay a Snowflake multiple for control; 30x 2023 rev outcome of at least £100m is £3bn or £40 a share..... the competitive attention this will attract likely to drive much higher - watch this stock smash 2023

https://twitter.com/TheCitySpy/status/1612468306744643586?s=20&t=PPq9mY5cAGgAlgSAjMb-Kw

Did anyone else notice that Michael Evans the President of Alibaba responsible for international growth strategy outside of China is the brother of x THG director Balderton founder Mark Evans - hmmmm interesting

They are the only shares traded in London and they traded at 143 - current share price fundamentally wrong - over time the GDR will trade in parity

Check out the reported trades today@ 143p - c £5m of stock has been bought at this level in London and reported outside LSE. This must be Bangladesh locals buying in London to exploit the huge arbitrage - very wealthy locals who know what stunning value the GDR is

This stock is so undervalued - forget the upside on the license extension and even ignoring the monster existing Zinc deposit just focus on the cash that spins off from current precious metal production
Assuming a full year production equivalent to 2019 then 18,000 oz of Gold at current pricing would clear c$20m of PROFIT, 250000 oz of Silver would net c$4m PROFIT - this is the only quoted Gold producer that hasn't moved within the gold/ silver bull run and sits at a inexplicable discount to NAV with a ridiculous £60m EV - this is a giveaway valuation and stock could justifiably triple in the coming period

1 ADR = 2 Ordinary Shares!!!!

Why do some people struggle with basics - there are 2 UK Ordinary Shares per one US ADR At the closing price of 75cts that is equivalent to 37.5 cts per Ord Share or approx 28p per shareThe reason we don't have price equilibrium is because the UK Ordinary shares are not currently 'fungible' into the ADR - if they were then the demand in the US would be met very easily by UK sellers The price in the US is an aberration and over time the two will converge to a level that fairly reflects the opportunity (significant) within the company - similar early stage companies easily support a £50/£60m valuation which with a total of 450m shares in issue could justify a share price towards 15pPunters talking about SP potential >£1 need to get a calculator out and start THINKING - and stop blaming MM'S for manipulating share prices - they are just a 'component' of the buyer/seller dynamic - they don't control anything!!

We have 409m shares London 40m equivalent in US
At 10p we are capped at c45m with c£15m cash - an acceptable valuation

1 ads = 2 ordinary shares

So GFM have had to confess to an embarrassing beat to analysts expectations - again!! Where previously they had guided to end the year Jan18 with $10m of debt, they have now revealed they will be substantially cash positive. With all debt repaid by todays date that means they have the remaining 6 weeks of trading to accumulate a meaningful cash balance - at current production and profitability they seem to producing in excess of $1m cash profit per day so we are now likely to end the year with nearer $10m. This level of profitability is not just about Zinc inflation but also lower costs and smaller discounts to LME pricing they have been able to secure locally - this has turbo boosted cash generation with c $45m debt repayment to date which when annualised would suggest full year EBIT in excess of $50m compared with the last upgraded consensus of c$41m - a near 25% beat!!! With Mladen increasingly talking about the financial impact of an increase in production that a mine license extension would allow this seems like a turning point in rhetoric and edges us tantalisingly closer to a long awaited award - if that can be secured and current prices hold then there is a very real possibility this group could produce in excess of $100m of cash profit and a share price a multiple of current levels.

The run rate of profitability at current Zinc prices and the narrower discount to the LME price that the company receives from local smelters means that Griffin will blow the H2 consensus forecast out of the water - this year will see the company produce record profitability and likely end the period completely debt free. Thereafter, they will be free to use the substantial free cash flow to either pay a material dividend or perhaps more likely, continue to buy back stock - if they chose the latter, at current levels they could retire almost 1/3 of the issued shares leaving only the super smart and savvy Major Shareholders, namely - Mr. Adam Usdan - 30,659,556 18.04 Overbrook Management Corp - 9,186,137 5.40 Richard James Griffiths - 7,000,000 4.12 to benefit in the future from what will likely be a material premium takeover from a major Chinese group - this is such an undervalued stock as it is, throw the bounty of a permitted extension to the mine and a consequent resource upgrade and it becomes absurdly undervalued.

well there we are - when the company announced they could deliver results somewhat above current market expectations they actually meant we would smash expectations by the first half result alone. They are absolutely printing cash at these Zinc prices which if they remain and Mladen is correct in his prediction that "we expect an equally impressive second half of the year" then despite a 170% upgrade ahead of these results the company's brokers will have o further upgrade by c50% to match the reality of the company's true current profitability. To paraphrase Mladen, all things being equal and without a possible extension to the mining license and the 'multiplier' effect this will have, Griffin will deliver record profits this year, will be practically debt free (having repaid in full the significant investment it has made in plant) and will simply be in the best shape it has ever been and thoroughly deserved of pushing to new stock price highs - breaking beyond the previous 110p levels -

OK - a little reminder of the fundamentals that will drive this share price considerably higher regardless of the timing of the special dividend. Cambian have stated their ambition is to deliver 20% EBITDA margins within the specialist children services division that remains post adult sale. This should be a run rate profitability that becomes evident throughout 2018 and from £200m of forecast revenues this would equate to c £40m of cash generative earnings. If we use the adult sale transaction multiple and nearest quoted comparable Caretech as valuation benchmarks then these earnings deserve at least an 11x EBITDA multiple - £440m. Ignoring the timing of the dividend and taking the gross cash on balance sheet post adult sale of c£120m then we can expect a £560m equity value to fairly reflect this earnings ambition which is equivalent to 300p per share. This stock is gradually rehabilitating and is fundamentally an excellent defensive growth proposition with 60% upside on near term organic recovery alone; if we start to model in the cash the business will generate throughout 2018 and the investment opportunities in new educational / residential assets that could utilise further capital then the upside could be considerably higher.

Wait, OK lets understand the meaning of "If this positive commodity price environment were to continue in the second half of the financial and calendar year, annual financial results are likely to be above current market expectations" A more accurate description would have been "If this positive commodity price environment were to continue in the second half of the financial and calendar year - we are going to absolutely obliterate consensus forecasts on the upside'!! The reality is that the company's brokers have upgraded their forecasts for this year by a incredible 116% to $30.7m and EPS by 169% to 12.4c - that is an absolutely massive upgrade and drives the 100p valuation they put on the Caijiaying operation. This exceptional profitability explains why the company have been buying shares back recently and will no doubt continue to do so post releasing their results in August - they know what is now obvious to all - THIS STOCK IS HUGELY UNDERVALUED.