Member Info for DeepFeckinValue

Something in my foggy memory tells me that John said auditor fees are cheaper if they sign off the books a bit later after YE, so they have taken this approach. MIght explain why we've not had an update yet

Thanks AJP I appreciate the response and I'm now aligned with your conclusions too. Another positive sign, but we've sure had plenty in the past 12-18 months yet the SP has plummeted - let's hope this converts into high volume GPM sales and for a sharp correction soon. I never throught we'd be back at 2.6p old money with the company having gone from strength to strength in recent years. I'll look to top up again over the next month or so to continue averaging down.

If this is via Chemtan I believe it's related to the low margin Forulation Solutions offering (I believe that was the term ITX and John used for this revenue stream)? He warned not to get too excited when reading into import volumes as I remember from a webinar last year

Great communiction on your business plan. You've got a massive opportunity and a credible plan to get to a high revenue 35% GPM business. The management to date has been execellent, so I've every confidence that you'll execute this plan, whilst not disregard PI shareholding along the way like other business have done. Thanks for the hard work and keep it up. The LTHs know the incredible value that will emerge in the yeas to come, so take the myopic naive surface level criticisms with a large pinch of salt.

Got NT above 2,500 initially, then eventually only letting me buy £250 at 4.75.

In the interest of balance I suspect that some of the increased buying of raw materials is to increase stock at hand, having been burned by the shipping delays and cost pressures last year. But even if this is the case, I think that it still looks like they are going through raw materials at a fair clip.

This is what I can see AJP, do you agree? Shipments contain 1000KG SUPER SACKS WRAPPED 40 PALLETS i.e. 40,000KG per shipment

Delivered to Itaconix June 22 x1, July 22 x1, August 22 x4, Oct 22, x1

Delivered to Chemtan Co. Inc. (For Itaconix Corp): Jan 23 x2

Delivered to Kregspedi for Itaconix: Apr 23 x1

Also noticed historic imports to Itaconix of Sodium silicate “water glass” which alongside Itaconic acid is used in Super Absorbant Polymers (SAP).

Page 10 in that PDF really excites me DB - being reminded of the potential markets which we're now selling into and those still to come, well it's staggering to think of the high margin revenue opportunities ahead of us.

I hope it's not for a few weeks yet, just moving some funds to top up the SIPP before news is out!

I view having this as ITX having finnCap on the ground in London (recently appointed and I expect put in place to arrange the enormous and successful capital raise) and Canaccord are the team on the ground internationally (especially US). For what benefit, John is keeping tight lipped there, but we're aware of his aspirations to make it easier for US investors to come on board. I would ordinarily conclude that there is a chance of a placing coming, but we can rule this out (you'd hope) given we're flush with cash at the minute, so this is a positive signal in my book.

Blown away by the amount raised. A staggering amount of capital. From a range of investors nonetheless. No one is stumping up that without a very clear line of sight to significant and tangible revenue. This thing is an iceberg and we can only see the tip.

Thanks Thordon. Nevertheless an interesting market; that itaconic acid has found a commercial use there only gives me greater confience in our own products and chosen markets.

Thanks Thordon. On your comment; "...AVAIL have now upgraded there product with ITX chemicals" can you help me to reach this same conclusion - what have you found that shows it's Itaconix's protected itaconic copolymers being used? Again, many thanks - please don't misinterpret my DD.

Thanks for the continued research Thordon. Please help me get to your level of confidence. SFP AVAIL phosphorus fertilizer enhancer seems to have been around for a decade now, which implies it's nothing to do with ITX - what do you think? I take your point about itaconate copolymer being protected, but isn't this only above a fairly high threshold (I want to say 80%+ from a comment JS made on one webinar or another).

Thinking about topping up at this price, so watch the RNS land tomorrow morning!

Regarding recent imports, this alternative data source is quite interesting: https://www.importyeti.com/company/itaconix

Shipments of Itaconic acid from Qingdao Kehai Biochemistry;
In 2018/2019, shipments in Oct, Jan, Apr
In 2019/2020, shipments in July, Oct, Jan
In 2020/2021, shipments in April, July...

Three months apart each time. could we expect another in Oct if this pattern keeps up?

The Jan 2017 RNS stated: "Itaconix will produce ZINADOR for Croda and Croda will market and sell ZINADOR in household, municipal, animal and industrial applications, subject to certain terms and conditions."

The current RNS now only specifies home care applications.

I also wonder if the original agreement had a 5 year term and they've spent 9 months renegotiating more attractive commercial terms for ITX. Or, does updating for "ongoing market developments" mean they've sought to negotiate a new contract and price point given commercial progress of ITX in the market.

I might have expected the share price to converge towards 12p forecast given these stella HY1 results, or indeed beyond as there is a now a fantastic chance of income outperformance and minimal chance of undershooting income target. So I can't understand why the market is letting the SP sit at c6p given this tremendous almost certain upside potential? Can we speculate? Fear over margin? (Doubt it given it's noted that cost pressures have been passed on.) Fear over a placing? (Doubt that too, cash burn looks good, next raise likely to be used to chase revenue opportunities which should be viewed positively, as JS hinted at in a previous update). Fear over a quiet HY2? (Maybe there could be the potential that HY2 income was accelerated into HY1 give the extent of this outperformance, but that doesn't imply HY2 won't meet the small amount of income left to meet budget, especially when HY2 is always much larger than HY1!). Supply disruptions? (No evidence from my perspective, recently received a large shipment of raw and have large amount of finished goods in US and Europe for new projects coming online). I'm at a loss. The market can only come good in time.

Hoping to retire DB, we'll be a lot higher than 5p in the decades to come! Thanks, that's reassuring on the continued imports.

Itacon's not a deramper IMO and I value their contributions. Is this coming from your contacts in the US Itaon?

It's possible that there may be supply delays due to ongoing lockdowns in Qingdao, where most of the supply comes from, but at the same stage I'm not worried. We've a large supply of raw materials and finished goods, and as AJP and John noted there are US based suppliers too if required (and we've been successful in passing on increasing costs to customers). Long term John plans to bring production of raw materials in house once we have scale, based on comments in recent interview. Can imagine he is keep to remove the supply side distraction.

Half year is going to be a big milestone for ITX and FinnCap on their 12p by year-end journey. Can only conclude IMO that they have juicy revenue updates to share and hopefully positive news on new revenue streams. Still really excited to hear about BioAstrix, it's been over 2yrs now which was their expected timeframe for commercialisation.

I made two purchases into the SIPP today as it was NT over a certain size, the second of c19k shares in the afternoon is not showing, or any trades in the afternoon for that matter.