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Final thing before I pop off for 12 months. Sent Bilbert a well structured but scathing email regarding their strategic risks and challenges that they must address.
Of course they’ll be no response but I feel better and suspect a number of points would be shared by most/all shareholders.
Ball in his court.
A few weeks ago an oil company had no flowable assets and if they did the question mark about how to pay to get to production.
Today the same oil company has flowable assets but still has the question around strategy to pay to get to production (or sale).
The price is lower today than a few weeks ago
Therefore this crumby market values the flowable oil at less than £0….turns out it’s not an asset, it’s a liability!
Ha ha ha
The reality is the results were relatively inconsequential to the share price movement. This is all supply drive. Basically the very short termers who only turn up for the drill/expected news are cashing out to go gamble ‘red or black’ somewhere else which they’ll do multiple times a year and work the percentages.
Shame as the results are decent if you tot up tested and analogous plays in the single vertical.
08.57 - same every year…rambles on about how bad the potential is and always comparing to PANR but as soon as there’s a decent sustained rise he FsO. Only to turn up again when the price eases. (Interestingly he doesn’t do that when, for example, PANR tanked from 1.35ish down to 0.2).
2021 was lovely as he was silent for months. I hope there will be another big rise not only as I’ll make a few quid but also because we’ll get peace for a bit.
Ps I’ve had s***t filtered for about 4 years and I haven’t regretted a single second of that!
Realistically the overhang won’t get cleared before drilling as with previous years. Looking at current volumes and 4 odd billion issued over the 2 tranches, it’ll clear through rises if results positive. And that’s a function of BEXs issues too which is unfortunate but where we are.
Yes it’s a drag on initial upside but there will be upside on good results.
Thanks Brom - you know me and I usually read what’s published but qrtly reports tend to be a retrospective collation of what’s already known..Sod’s Law this had something more material.
Anyway thanks and would appear the comms this morning align to potential rationale mooted yesterday.
In business hope is not a strategy…need to plan for the worst.
It’s done now and I see the temperatures in Deadhorse take a dip next week.
Roll on 2024
13.33 - hi Brom. Been a bit tied up of late but saw your note re: BEX. Are there troubles there? I probably missed something.
If there are then maybe the funding will be to secure their % of the acreage…guess that along with the additional 100% of costs (leases and drilling) is what you’re suggesting.
Obviously to balance the argument we would also have 100% of the returns.
12.40 - it ebbs and flows...have a look back and you'd already know that. Timings have diverged as PANR can operate outside of season but equally still need to answer some funding questions for the next few years. 88 will drive into the winter season as the flow test approaches - and the first real opportunity to have a material marker banked to underpin it's value. In summary both are event driven business right now so those that gloat now often seen that retract a few months later. Everyone makes their choices and GLA - it's not a zero sum game, both can, and I think will, win in the lomg run
10.29 - like the positivity but the article is riddled with mistakes and over assumptions. For a start the share price increase was 100% not 50% as they were basing the % on the end price not the start price (that’s just poor maths). And there is no way the Hickory flow test on a vertical and without analogies will be enough to get a ‘reserve’ status.
Voted through HL too...really easy. I think everyone on here has a decent number if all added up - let's not let a small number of large investors hijack the company - I've said this about 88 and PANR - there will be. people out there with agendas on share price and sneaking control....just be aware and throw you votes in the way you want them to be applied - not a passenger to someone else's plan!
There's an agenda here....can't think what large US owned O&G companies would have an interest in paying a tiny amount for a huge asset? This has got dirty oil written all over it. same happening to 88 now they have a green shoots of something worth chasing....normally that would have inducted a big spike, its gone down marginally....its a rack to be sure
09.31 - Maybe you should ask them about PANR and see how much value their comments have..not sure how much incite they have if you cross reference that current position. but listen to what you want - just don't understand glorifying one share thats in the toilet versus vilifying another which is equally weak right now. Shin of a rhino, brains of a peanut :-)