Member Info for David1951c

Idk,

Numbers for 2026 are extremely basic using $60 on 20k boepd with EBITA at 45% of that revenue. The relationship of these has fluctuated in recent times. Ebita would be very similar to today's MCap of £160m. As per the last post on here 2025 numbers should also look impressive.

Based on 9k boepd at $60 revenue would be close to $200m and Ebita $90m for 2025. With increase in 2026 revenue could exceed $450m and Ebita would be around Mcap. Crude numbers but illustrates the capacity to do more deals although dividends might get more SP recognition than so far seen. Disappointing but 2026 should prove a transformational year when the impact of the Oman acquisition becomes clear as well as the other catalysts mentioned in update.

Article in the Times business section worth a read. It doesn't mention Apta but does give information on the major division of Unilever which develops deoderants, including 840 staff and a large R&D budget. This could become one of the major licencing deals.

Thank you for your informed views. Added 500k @1.78. It is hard for companies in this sector to raise funds so hopefully the upcoming changes will make the situation less brutal. I will add when funds allow.

I hold shares and the potential is significant. However I am reluctant to add when the funding position is unclear. Grants could be material amounts if and when received but there is a risk of a diluted fund raise to progress the numerous programmes in 2026. I have suffered this is other small biotechs like FAB and Apta where the state of the capital markets are very harsh and unsupportive.

I tried to analyse the cash runway and it seems more funds will be needed in H1 if the grants are not received. Is there any indication of the timing?

This would be 25p per share. Great but will need some more substantial news on business development.

Latest 500k @.898 shown as a sell is my buy. I truly believe Apta SP will recover and in time will be multiples. I agree the revenue growth is disappointing BUT the uodate is otherwise superb. With so many strings to their bow the future is bright and licencing income should start to take off in 2026.

In the short term, the SP will be volatile as AIM methodology is not fit for purpose in the trading world of today.

Hope 2026 is the year Apta are recognised for the quality and breadth of their offerings with a commensurate rise in SP. I still believe they will be acquired at a significant multiple of current SP. Hope so as I have about 1% overall and by far my largest holding. Just added 500k at 1.04 shown on here as a sell.

One factor not helping SP is RNS in November where acquisition would be partly funded by new share issue. Without knowing the price of new shares, this remains an uncertain investment case.

Look forward to this as there is a lot going on. It should include update on Balder V and guidance for 2026 in excess of 20k boepd. The impact of the inclusion of Oman from 1.1.2025 is still hard to determine in revenue and ebita. The Norway tax rebate helped fund the acquisition (with higher revenue) so debt position may be relatively good. If ebita is around £60m the map looks very low.

Bought a chunk some years ago and now heavily under water. Sold a few at recent spike. Would now buy back but another fund raise may be needed. AIM and funding for small bios in UK is pitiful but that's the reality. Geni need to show stronger revenue growth and getting close to break even.

Webinarmnvery informative and presence in USA hopefully means FAB is now even more in the spotlight. Clearly Adian believes the market players will recognise the best in class and first in class with a possible bid in 2026. More immediately FAB need to get the agreement with NCI concluded with a fee structure that rewards them for all the prior development work. Surely £1m plus would be a starting point and cover the annual expenses. The visit hopefully includes meetings with NCI to get the agreement agreed.

Getting nearer your target 6.8p. Just paid 7p for 50k but shown on here as a sell.

This should be a pivotal week and concluding an agreement with NCI would remove any linger doubts on funding. Only a few trades today so far and mostly red. 21k @ 18.95 is a buy but shown in red on here.

Great summary, thank you. Importantly FAB need to ensure they sell at a good price and not allow customers to dictate. Agreement with NCI should be worth a significant sum. Structuring the high margin revenue opportunities you mention should be aligned to success with hopefully reasonable royalty levels.

Significant development although limited details do not allow a meaningful assessment of the impact as from 1 January 2025. Lot of positives including cash generation at low cost and mainly liquids also avoiding windfall tax. With no additional debt the bottom line should be greatly higher.

With Baldur V coming on stream and Victory gas, guidance should go higher than 20boed. At that level the company should be worth at least twice the current map and more.

The steady fall in SP is unwelcome but reflects the environment around oli prices and Labour's lack of understanding the overall impact of windfall tax. The SP drop has been seen in other London listed stocks such as Ithaca and Harbour providing a good entry point with a better reward to risk position.

Kistos has a number of catalysts, which should reverse the SP decline and drive an increase in 2026, including:

1. Payment of tax rebate of $65m due this month

2. First gas from Victory expected this month

3. Production from Baldur phase V first wells also imminent and further wells in 2026, which would materially increase production

4. Further news on phase VI and drilling schedule

5. Production guidance for 2026 would be welcome

What stands out for Baldur is the very low unit cost of $5 pb.

I made good money from Rockrose and trust in AA to deliver here in spite of the rocky road and Labour's mixed messages and pitiful support for growth in O&G.

Two 50k buys early this morning are shown as unknown on here taking me to over 300k. Given the NCI continuation, which when agreed should cover the annual costs at the very least and the upcoming catalysts makes this a stand out. With such a low Mcap less then £20m, the potential upside seems significant.

Promising results but AISC €1,819 higher than others on AIM. THX ($1,129) and ACG are much lower.

Was summarised on IMC two days ago and provides a useful summary. Importantly there is a cash runway of 12 months but there is nothing on what and when future catalysts might come. I would like to add to holding but without some significant news, it seems likely SP will drift down even more.