If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
Dodgepot, could be defined as some sense of 'stability' something which has been lacking from INDV for quite some time. Previous Quarterly updates have generated quite a few surprises!
Yep, that makes reasonable sense for the normal U.K. movements, but what the F is going on with the US equivalent INVVY???!!!
Certainly something fishy going on. Yesterday 47p was seemingly ‘intentionally’ held before the unjustified drop. Seems 46p is today’s 47p from yesterday. Low volume, but so what!
Looks in line with expectations from Q3 to me: “ ndivior PLC (LON: INDV) (the “Group”) today announced revised expectations for FY 2019 net revenue and net income following stronger-than-expected net revenue performance. FY 2019 Group net revenue is now expected to be in the range of $750m to $790m (previously $670m to $720m) and net income in the range of $160m to $190m (previously $80m to $130m)“
Agreed. The filing issued yesterday in reply to Indivior’s motion is no surprise to anybody whatsoever (surely?). It is standard process within litigation. Why would the Prosecution suddenly roll over and agree with the Defendant’s Motion? Ultimately it is up to the judiciary to decide, but either way, this stock is stuck until some resolution is made and I doubt in the next few weeks the Judge will find in INDV’s favour, and they should therefore just look to settle and move on.
A reason or two:
They’ve got $1bn in cash.
P/E ratio of less than 2:1.
YTD Adj. Net Income 4% better than Q3-2018 ($248m) despite -15% Net Income reduction.
Yes. But the INDV board states it has no metrics, rationale or confidence behind the sustained (larger than expected) market share which is currently driving current performance and improved FY guidance. If someone’s giving away generics for free that’s still a chunk of Revenue and profit lost in the melee
I just don’t get that though. YTD metrics and FY guidance suggests this is all better than feared when the SP dived pre-DOJ. So all very much ‘priced in’.
There was also a fair bit of dialogue about the Teva settlement. Clearly a concern (of II’s) towards this aspiration of $1bn revenue target and market share if they’re giving it away ‘for free’?!?! It’s clear that the INDV Board believe that there are many hurdles to overcome if even achievable, but not enough information on the speculation of that element to the Teva settlement to provide substantive comment.
Think you’ll find a lot of people are profit taking. If you bought at c.70p two weeks ago, today hits your 100% return, and as much as there MIGHT be more profit on the table, I think most of us would gladly walk away at 100% real profit, than theoretical profit, particularly given how massively volatile this stock is! Think it will take some time to get through 1.30-1.60 barrier because of this. If indeed it does of course!
No, but assume it has lost some impetus on the basis of the various ‘X HOUR DEADLINE ALERTS’ posted all over the shop
Inside Information leaked somewhere? Can't see any particular positive industry/INDV press anywhere?
Whilst the charts are all very pretty and impressive, I don't think it takes much of a rocket scientist to figure out that this stock was way oversold and depressed by short positions, and once their nuts began to be squeezed a little, it would surely begin to recover... #nochartrequired
Unquestionably in a mess - but how else are they going to work a way out of it. This is about them remaining a going concern, not worrying about cost savings on overheads - they've too many non-core businesses that are cash burdens. This looks nothing like a Carillion.
Did many of you actually bother to join the call this morning? A number of the wild speculations made were all addressed in Q&A...
Not sure where that original valuation came from? Typical EBITDA multiples in the industry are 7x. Bridgepoint paid £655 million for Miller Homes (back end of 2017) which was declaring £103m Op Profit at the time. If Kier is back down to £20-22m Op profit, the quoted range of £100-£150m doesn't sound wildly wrong?! I don't know why anyone is surprised by this move (if true). Housebuilders require a lot of cash, and Kier needs cash, and it is not like the housebuilding division returning exemplar profits on that equity! Makes sense to me...
Ordinarily, I'd agree with you compared with others in the sector, but 2018 Annual Report suggests £25.9m Operating Profit from the total Group £195m Op Profit. Half Year Results suggests Developments & Housing's revenue reduced by 19% and margins reduced to 4.3% which is the same as the Infrastructure Services division which had £1.8bn revenue YE2018. Arguably, we are already into a housing market decline in the UK, so could make sense generating additional cash today if the outlook is genuinely a declining one, and they're only going to lose £20m Op Profit from the group in the process...
I hope you’re right! I too am cautiously invested here and hoping for more. But lost thousands on FLYB due to the same rampy nonsense and vacuum of silence from BOD before the 1p D-Day...
Until you know the make up of the bids, I’m not sure you can completely rule out the unfortunate similarities to FLYB. All airlines would surely love to get their grubby paws on the good bits (assets) for very little in the way of consideration? No one saw the Connect Airways JV coming...
Surely it’s now in his interest to walk this back up, then repeat the offload from 172p etc? If he doesn’t offload any more, then sitting out will mean you’ve lost the chance to hit a potential low?