Member Info for Dabbler1

I have given up trying to predict where this will end up.

Everyone makes mistakes, investing in thungela has made up for a few mistakes I have made in the past, but even so I could have done better. LuckyLuciano, BCtrader , you will have both made plenty of mistakes too. Here’s to making more mistakes in the future, have a virtual pint on me.

I have been a bit disappointed by the drift down here since the aftermath of the placing, however I believe a trading statement is due on Friday and I think we may well reach new highs before too long.

Yes, a windfall tax by the SA Government is a definite risk. Don’t get me wrong, this is still cheap and has been a great investment but I think there is a high risk of others wanting to share our good fortune, and obviously that would limit our upside.

You can have too much of a good thing and I believe there is an increasing chance or even a likelihood of a windfall tax.

Still seems to be remarkably good value though, it was probably on a PE of 1 a month ago and is probably on a PE of about 1 now.

LuckyLuciano,
I think you make some interesting points and it is interesting to see what comes out of the apparent Evergrande collapse. I admit, I haven’t got a clue what it means for me and my investments. There is a lot of bluster on this board but you come across as dead straight to me.
I also share concerns about why there is SA Government backed selling and it’s obvious there is nervousness in the market, sudden and savage drops do often happen in circumstances like these and us humble PI’s won’t be the first to get the relevant news.

You were right to bail then LuckyLuciano, well done.
And if I was you I would be secretly pleased that everyone knew I was right!

US steel is an area I have never even thought of investing in, and lucky, I sincerely hope you haven’t mistimed your exit from them as they have cheap and plentiful energy supplies which most countries and definitely Western Europe don’t have.

I reckon the rise might be more to do with Michael Gove being appointed housing secretary. Industrial/ business parks will probably get pushed through quicker.

I had shares in EAH for a long time and did well for most of it. I sold after the results though as I was disappointed in the dividend being only 1p and concerned that they are far too dependent on one product in one country ( China). These could easily fall further and no doubt will do on any more disappointing news.

Not to be excited by this stock, and to think of what heights the share price could get to. It looks like fantasy at first but it’s all there in real life.

That is an interesting read, I knew about China’s spat with Australia but it’s amazing how they are cutting off their nose to spite their face.
Got to admit I have been thinking it’s possible a Chinese firm could bid for Thungela as it’s well known how keen the Chinese are to secure resources for themselves.

Damn it, should have gone all in a month ago.

Cheers, yes, I have done well with TGA but I have decided not to put all my eggs in one basket there as I was tempted to. I have a nagging doubt about it being too good to be true (the apparent returns there). I think this stock will improve over the next week or two, I expected the net asset value to improve as it did and there was the carrot of it doubling in 5-7 years so good value here.
I haven’t posted this before but I was interested last week, I hold shares in DSCV on a PE of about 35 and shares in TGA on an apparent PE of 1 but both increased the share price by 20% in the same timeframe, just goes to show how difficult it is to spot value in the market.

That the South African government doesn’t bring out a windfall tax, that is my only real worry here as I think coal price will hold for some time yet.

I agree, it’s such a good sector to be in now and there is clearly great optimism about the next 5-10 years. I like the slow way they are building the investment portfolio too, it will end up being a very valuable asset.

I am looking forward to tomorrow’s results, I reckon they will be more positive than the market expects as industrial development land is getting to the stage where it’s more profitable than house building land.

The market has for coal has changed, the prospects for Thungela have changed and that is why the share price has changed. Nothing to do with people staring at graph paper.

Is it possible the drop was partly due to the US market being closed/ light volumes?