The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I really think (& hope) that AH is a breath of fresh air as opposed to JL.
I (like kipper) find it staggering that he has taken 6 years to dispose of the various business that he thought were superfluous & has made some improvements (not to the SP) but at a snails pace. I know Covid didn’t help but everyone else had to cope with it as well.
We won’t hear anything from AH until results as CPI is now in a closed period but hopefully he’s going to come out all guns blazing
The problem is that £3b revenue means nothing if it doesn’t produce FCF.
Once we have FCF we will then have dividends & the whole picture is completely different.
My guess is August statement will show FCF & I would hope for an announcement then about resumption of dividends
Whilst I totally agree that no company is 100% safe I don’t think AH would have taken the job of CEO without a lot of due diligence to make sure he wasn’t taking on a dog.
Judging by his record he has pretty good timing of when to move to a company which, with a bit of help, is likely to show a substantial turnaround in the SP
Personally I have blocked both of the posters referred to so can’t see their postings, however I would very much doubt that any of their postings have any influence on the SP & are made just from vanity/ desperation etc
I don’t think anything will move the price upwards substantially & permanently until we have:
Free Cash Flow
Dividends
& nil or very low debt.
Contract wins, a purchase by AH of shares etc will only have a temporary & marginal effect
I think we may have to wait until Y/E although I hope the 6 months results may give a boost to the SP
Unless we get some very positive plans/statement from AH I don’t see anything much happening until the August 1/2 year results ( where I do hope to see some dramatic improvement & positive Cash Flow). Even the Y/E results, unless they come out much better than expected, aren’t likely to have much impact
I’m encouraged by reading up on Adolpho’s profile where he appears to get results in a relatively short time frame.
I do believe he is exactly the right choice for CPI in it’s current phase of development
Time of course will tell but it’s looking good for 2024
The only basis for the £5m figure I can see is that if all 5000 claimants received £1000 each.
Presumably this figure is in the hope that Capita will pay up (which I’m sure they won’t) just to avoid the hassle.
Of course if they did pay up it would open the floodgates which is why they will contest it.
@Simpliles
I take a bit of comfort from this.
One of my worries was that increasingly labour dominated councils would take back work ‘in house’ on the basis that more people could be employed & the council ( together with senior managements salaries etc ) expanded on the justification that it would save costs ( as we know this is unlikely to be the case).
Hopefully this might give cause for a rethink.
Thanks got out.
I have to say I agree with the analysis saying they don’t expect FCF & dividends until 2025 but I believe if we get clear & positive statements from AH the SP should recover before then.
As pointed out once we really are on the right track FCF could be around the £150/£200m (maybe Y/E 2026) & that should give significant upside but at the moment it’s all speculation.
Having had 5 years of JLs restructuring I just hope Adolpho doesn’t come in & announce it will be another 3 years.
He needs to delver ( & to be seen to be delivering) pronto.
Plenty of announcements please of aims, time frames, when TFC is to be delivered, dividend reinstatement date etc
The potential is there but until we see accounts showing FCF followed by an announcement re dividends this will drift.
New contracts, reduced costs etc are positive but without FCF & Dividends will have limited effect.
I’m also hoping Y/E accounts will confirm nil debt (excluding leases) as previously indicated by JL but I won’t be surprised if that target hasn’t slipped as well.
I’m hoping that the August 1/2 year statement will confirm the above & if so then it really will motor on.
I think AH will take a bit of time to come up with a strategy statement ( although no doubt he’s already worked out a policy) possibly combined with Y/E results or around that time. It would give him 6 weeks or so to get to know the ins & outs of CPI.
Hopefully the market will have a small positive reaction to his start but when a strategy is announced I would hope to see a marked improvement in the SP & hopefully followed by another leg up with half year results in August revisiting or hopefully surpassing the 45p highs seen last year