Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Bubbs an educated guess would be if the most recently checked PEPR was submitted on the 12/12/22 & approved on 31/01/23 that means a 7 week turnaround - roughly 16/02
As gorsuch has mentioned before the most recent PEPR's (including the one approved on 12/12) have all been for Quarries, which are just extraction - a completely different process to mining copper.
There is an argument to be made that as the oxide process has been approved (and the transitional ore is following the same mining process as the oxide ore) it's essentially a review of a small subsection of the PEPR and how the transitional ore will react within processing; so it may not take that long. Obviously it will be stretched out if there is missing data & the DEM have to query it etc.
However in short (& IMO) I am expecting news back next week or before - as it is a re review and we're now out of Aus bank/summer holidays so DEM will be at full capacity.
Pinnance this is what I'm unsure about either, I guess it's the same process as leaching oxide (sprinkling the heap with sulphuric acid, leaving for a few months and then separating out the copper from the heap) but I'm unsure why it requires a whole new PEPR? Maybe higher concentrations are required for transitional ore? - not sure if anyone can elaborate here...
Either or on the recently approved PEPR it does say that the acid forming capability of the transitional ore they have tested previously is low capacity/NA for the transitional ore that they have tested within the initial PEPR, Which is hopeful
Treasury are putting on the brakes hard - a good thing for growth, tech firms will be doing well out of this and copper demand will increase further (positive move on copper prices after the news) companies will be able to borrow/spend more which will require more Cu. Also good for VC loans, there will be increased capacity to loan for the VC partner, which will probably mean better terms for SML.
Only worry is I see is that there will be less sentiment towards mining and probably more of a move to tech/sensitive stocks, but there may be more money in the market as a whole which could counter this. Who knows... Just wish the DEM would check this thing over already!
We should at least get an RNS about the cash balances, this is later than usual, maybe because they're close to receiving news on something else and wish to encompass it all in one RNS?
But with regard to the new PEPR, when compared to the approved oxide PEPR
- Mining area/location is the same
- fundamental extraction process used is the same
The transitional layer is in the same location, just deeper,
You would probably know how the treatment process differs, which is why they need a second PEPR, you seem to know more about mining than I do, I've had a google but can't get a clear reason
I assume the concern is acid run off as that's what's mentioned in the RNS', but in page 35 of the oxide PEPR all transitional ore samples taken from Palrtridge north are either non acid forming or potentially acid forming (low capacity). again this is just my research into it, I could be just clutching at straws
All things actually considered I don't believe that the DEM will take 6 months this time. Given my reasoning before, but 99% of it has already been approved, this is just the treatment of transitional ore & PAF material, which was found to be low in the last PEPR. I'd be surprised if it didn't get approved, given it's a micro scale project on an existing/old mine site. I think I've only seen 1 PEPR rejection in the past 3 years, they just have to prove the due diligence has been done.
If you look on the DEM's website they seem to be approving PEPR's at a much faster rate recently due to increased staff numbers. Lets not forget that January is the summer holiday for Australia. I reckon news next week, they still need to deliver the cash balance report regardless.
We'll all make something out of this over the next month or so IMO - Australia day tomorrow so I don't think we'll see any PEPR approval from DEM this week, Aus summer hols will be over next week so hopefully they'll start churning through apps.
I do think that day traders will jump in on this once it moves - on face value it is a enticing price point for a copper mine and JP can spin a good RNS (whether it produces effectively or not is yet to be seen); especially as the news flow for copper has been so positive recently. Fortunately long term investors have been around long enough to know the management thoroughly and where a good exit point is
Lupi you're absolutely correct, if we sacked everyone bar the people necessary to run Cobre back in 2020 we would have enough to run LCCM through it's oxide stage - unfortunately we're not in charge of the company, it's not the hand we currently hold and we can't change anything about it.
Funding terms won't be agreed until the verdict of this PEPR and if this Venture Partner is even slightly as interested as the most recent RNS portrays they'll definitely be interested now on the rise of copper prices. If we get the PEPR we'll certainly get funding
Calm before the upswing - amazing that copper is knocking on up to $10k/tonne again.
PEPR approval can come any day given proximity to the last few approvals - I keep checking SARIG every morning.
Once approved, funding is a sure bet with prices as they are. Swing to 0.5p on PEPR approval and then up to 1p on funding, with a gradual increase in SP until production.
Timeline from here 6 weeks after funding confirmation to get crews on the ground, 6 weeks to get topsoil off, 2 months to leach, 1 month to process/sell? (6 months) - looking into Summer for first Cu cement sales IMO.
Fair amount of people probably selling and buying into KOD for a bit of fun.
I can see another PEPR has been approved on the DEM's website, so only a matter of time before they get to LCCM. hopefully won't take long as they're just checking on the treatment and acid forming capability of the transitional material (which is apparently quite low according to a previous RNS); Everything else has already got the green tick (excavation, transport of goods/ other tangible impacts of the mine) as this all would of been signed off with the oxide PEPR.
Once signed off i'm sure we'll get a funding offer straight after, with copper prices as they are.
Sammy it was me that suggested a bagger up to 6p and my calcs are in my previous thread.
Funding + full PEPR should send us up to the 1p mark, but the SML SP movement is completely dissociated with movements in Cu price, it doesn't correlate whatsoever so the market doesn't see us as a copper producer. The real movement will be made once we can get a few hundred tonnes of copper cement off the supply line - but high risk/reward as it didn't work out for Phoenix.
I'm hoping that the $20m+ renovations to the MOL facility (from phoenix and previous tenant) + new leach pad design as well as learning from Phoenix's mistakes (plus the expertise of our JV/VT partner) will result in a successful mine as well as a movement up past 5p