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I see a bundle of large delayed and some cancelled trades from yesterday. Shenanigans for sure.
The hardest part of the marathon is always the mentally tough part right at the end as that’s when the mind games kick in and fear of failure and mental exhaustion get introduced as a result. Sticking to the plan Is my plan as no need to create another one, the investment case is the same as it was. It’s just that someone sees the need to sell down some or all of their holding, and others follow.
Could be fear, could be tactics related to equity pricing, could be desperation.
We will likely never know the games/story, as frustrating as it is.
Main thing is finance completion and the equity at price near or above 7.5p
yes, its another one for the conspiracy theorists. I have given up guessing.
Market makers often shunt stock at mid price and it used to show as MM on the trade but not seen that for years.
Hazbeen - my comment relates to a potential term sheet agreed strike price potentially being an equation of
equity price =Share price VWAP x factor of NPV of project, using say recent 3 month average of Nickel price for example
As mentioned just speculation.
Agreed Wasa, it feels a tad odd. I would call it positioning perhaps.
Saving grace is the major holders also have a big desire to see the entire holding increase in value. Always plenty conspiracy theories around but as we have seen before it always works out in the end.
I do wonder if the high nickel price is driving the strike price via the term sheet and the VWAP is adjusting to align to an agreed pricing range for the cornerstone. Pure speculation on my part by the way.
https://www.mining.com/web/global-ev-battery-sales-surge-as-demand-for-clean-cars-booms/
More of the same, at some point we will see this growth impact the supply/demand balance of Nickel in a big way and there simply wont be enough around. Maybe we are getting there with the recent LME stock trend. Time will tell.
Sharp turn in the Nickel stocks since late April, worth watching this as we approach Q3/Q4 when the wet season kicks in and stops mining activities for the Philippines nickel mines who kicked up supply to China following the Indonesian ban. If it becomes a tight market it will drive price unless the Chinese have stocked up ahead of time.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical.html
I still hold my thinking there Wasa, my estimate base case has always been around a doubling of the shares in issue at 7-8p. My ball park is there is still potentially around 100m GBP needed. Working capital has to be funded once the mine starts and as noted on the recent update the initial interest cover on the loan through to production and development of Vermelho. . GBP has improved significantly against the USD , that a big favorable. While as you mention, they must never come up short, that is a big no no.
This is gateway finance to open the development of the entire asset base and the numbers you are crunching show the big picture. A few extra shares here and there doesn't make a huge difference really in the long run. Clearly the less the better though. Not long now until we see the full package hopefully.
Its a real possibility that we could see the fund raising from the cornerstone and top up final equity piece at a higher price than the recent raise at 7.5p and of course today's price. I certainly hope so anyway. At the point the final equity is sought, the financing package is already agreed and available but is of course subject to the equity completion. With this in mind, the NRV of the project and its linking to Nickel price could well be part of the term sheet and hence impacting the funding deal share price. There must be a mechanism to decide the price for both parties as the cornerstone process is a price setting one while everyone else will be price takers. Further to that the finance risk is removed and only build risk remains - so higher pricing could again be justified. Maybe a combo of HZM VWAP and current and forecast Nickle price - I don`t know what it is but there will be a mechanism
It will be interesting to see what happens as we progress to the end of H1.
Stick hands here! Value always outs in the end.
I wouldn’t rule out a move to the main market at some point also.
Ditto that. Market makers in usual form will take no prisoners and the innocent and traders will get fleeced.
Oscar, bear in mind that while dilution is inevitable from the equity raise piece, it is essential to raise the final cash to build the working mine with the balance coming in debt etc. So while it is dilution in one form, its is going to be a value adding dilution as it is to build a profitable asset which will be listed on the balance sheet. Look at the forecast profitability and cash flow from the working mine, its a cash machine at these Nickel prices.
Very different to explorer and early development type equity which gets spent on drilling and licencing etc and no asset appears for a very long time.
Agreed Wasa, and there will be no selling from me. Hoping to have around 1% following the equity piece. Exciting times just ahead and then we move out of speculation and into real value add.
Excellent update from JM yesterday, he ticked all the boxes and answered many questions frankly. It was better than I had expected but matched what I hoped for. Ideal confidence builder.
I also think it’s good that we are no longer a hyped share, being so far along the development curve this should provide for more stability as we progress the value add story. We should see value add on news, not pump and dump on news.
Agreed, maybe some filling in of some detail.
JM is no fool, he will have something fresh to say today, otherwise what’s the point. That’s my expectations anyway. Find out soon enough.
agreed, but in the short term the current price may potentially impact favourably on the equity pricing with the cornerstone investor. Eg may be on the term sheet to calculate NRV etc.
Won’t do any harm that’s for sure, we also don’t want it too high in the short term as it encourages mothballed capacity that needs a higher price.
It’s going to be an interesting discussion on Friday. Knowing Jeremy from his form I expect something that’s fresh, otherwise why bother. Could be a more detailed update of the finance process. Eg. What is already completed and what’s outstanding, like 15 out of 20 stages completed and a clear view of what’s left to do..... But I hope for more but let’s see.
Still holding all of my shares, and will continue to. GLA
Yes, agreed. I think though that vermelho news could be kept minimal at this time until Araguaia is financed, then it becomes the value add story during construction. Keeping some powder dry so to speak. Eg they may choose to take it DFS stage themselves, develop the permitting and have a shovel ready project ready for development with a partner with proven returns and ready to construct. Alternatively they could announce a partner earlier. Could go either way. Will find find out soon enough.
Will be good timing for a sprint to a new level, could easily influence cornerstone equity pricing as part of the term sheet.