Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
It depends on what you assume for development cost and time to first gas. Conrad Asia Energy currently assume first gas sales in 2025 so it'll be 8.5% of the development cost spread over the next 3 years. The fact they want to increase their initial production by >340% would indicate multiple wells. It does appear there is infrastructure in the area for them to tie into which is positive. Current price per term is $2.2 to 2.5 so using $1/therm I believe is conservative. I would also expect a much higher RF than 50% (up to 80% for a pure gas play) but again I'm being conservative.
I've done some rough calcs on Duyung using the P90 volume and a 50% recovery factor. I also used a conservative gas price of $1/therm.
I used a total development cost of $500MM and $2MM/annum OPEX (assuming subsea development) and a tariff of $5/boe.
I get a value of around £0.29/share
Coop
Can you post the article?
Cheers
Coop
Not very complimentary about clays
We're waiting for the re-appraisal of the reservoir volumes but that's not expected until Q1 next year. Since it's a big tank should be relatively straight forward.
Not sure what else you're expecting.
Coop
Actually, I was quite pleased with PS presentation. He's always clearing his throat (I don't think he likes presenting and he gets a little nervous).
Some good questions at the end which provided me with more clarity.
I do, however, wish he would provide more clarity on the grade of the product that we supply versus the cost. The Aussies lithium is expensive and needs further refinement. We are at the bottom of the cost curve supplying 99.9% purity for batteries.
I'm still long on BCN and don't mind being diluted a little to get to production. It looks as though the equity raise has already been done via the 3 major investors. Hopefully more clarity end of Q1 next year.
No mention of Zinwald which I was a little disappointed in. I'd like to understand the plan and timescale more as I think things have maybe changed.
Coop
Yes, very encouraging post. They found the GWC at the same depth as the South Mako-1 well which would indicate it's all connected and de-risks the volumes in place.
Overall I'm very pleased. The DST will confirm deliverability of the well so will be interesting to see what rates they achieve. Always good to report a high number to the market and also to state that they're surface constrained!! However, it's unlikely they'll be able to test / stay with the rig long enough to determine the connected volume if the tank is as big as it appears.
Coop
It was slip of the tongue, he meant to say Mexico
coop
I watched it with interest. Nothing really new but I didn't think PS came across very well (he seemed very nervous to me), although his explanation when asked about the handling / processing of the clay mineralogy was done well.
With fundamentals like we have he should be booming it out to the world.
The next 6 weeks or so will be interesting.
Coop
Now that's the type of breakthrough car manufactures and battery grids have been waiting for.
Cool!!!
Wolfi, I don't believe there is an oversupply of battery grade lithium.
Coop
Can someone provide a link to the RNS please?
Coop
Hawkey, Bentley is heavy oil and PMO don't really have any experience with producing this type of crude, maybe worth a punt though, however, it's likely Statoil will probably pick this license up (if they haven't already) as it's an analogue and a very good business fit for their Mariner field development.
With regards the Chevron UK assets, if they're successful I can see them using Zama as a bargaining chip. Therefore, there's potential for a large uplift in production / revenue for little to no cash. I can see PMO doing a really good deal here.
Coop
Rocket, where are you getting your information? Hanwa have an offtake agreement with Bacanora for 17.5ktpa with the Omani fund looking to secure 10ktpa once the plant is up to 35 ktpa capacity. This is all recorded.
Coop
If you agree that shorting of AIM stocks should be banned, there is an official petition to sign.
I have just signed and the initial target is 10,000 to get a response from Parliament
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/242399
Coop
Page 10 of the following transcript is Robin Allan talking about what was happening on Zama 2
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4247230-premier-oils-pmoif-ceo-anthony-r-c-durrant-full-year-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=10
The sidetrack was actually drilled near vertical and they have extensively cored. All log data has been obtained and is currently being in the process of being analysed but he did indicate that reservoir properties (i.e. net to gross and saturation are better than Zama 1 and better than expected). Pressures and mobility data have / are currently being taken (that's the MDT data).
The next phase is 3 or 4 well tests via DST, this will mean running and cementing a liner and the running of guns (bottom up) to test the various intervals of reservoir of interest to determine potential and connected volumes.
They're looking to move the rig to spud Zama 3 by the end of the first week in April so we should have the well test results by then.
It's all looking very positive on the Zama front.
Coop