The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
I deal with most of the large institutional investors. They do not talk to KMR and do not recommend them as a result. Much more can be done to bring new institutional investors and get KMR onto recommended lists.
It would also support their case to get back on to FTSE 350 and FTSE 250 lists if the stock was more widely accepted.
Secondly, the lack of liquidity and over reaction to news, both positive and negative, is not a good thing. It deters wealth managers and IFA’s as higher volatility and liquidity risk prevent them recommending the stock.
The discount to Net Asset Value is also supportive of my comments.
It’s pretty obvious to me, maybe I’m wrong.
My typical stance is in agreement with you.
However, the last Tender Offer those willing to sell at £4.20 (ish) was significantly over subscribed and this is now coming through.
The recent sell off is simply due to a lack of awareness of KMR in the market and its lack of liquidity. As normal over sold and now it’s hard to buy in size.
For me, trying to remain patient and let the share price correct to it normal low position, is frustrating.
But, with significant willing sellers just above £4 and Share Price at £3.30 I feel like all logic could be thrown out the window, if an Offer were to appear.
I would be disappointed to Sell May holding at £5
However, the larger II’s would 💯 have a call to make if it were Offered. I could see some defensive commentary. The Offer materially undervalues the business etc etc but I could see an aggressive approach being successful between £4.50 and £7.00 very easily.
For me the Board is responsible for the Market weakness and needs to respond.
Lots of BS about Red Sea and Valuations will not cut it for me. The lack of liquidity and Institutional support is the boards fault/responsibility.
As of this morning the glass half full / empty position became…. If the board would even confirm there is a f’in glass it would be a marked improvement.
Sorry for rant….. very annoyed
I believe that any change in short positions must be reported by 3:30pm following the change.
It would be suicide not to cover the position, especially with the AGM, pressure tests and refinance so close.
Perhaps they can cover by participating in the placing to fill the equity gap post vendor financing but there is material market risk in letting it run.
I’m expecting the position to close this quarter. But who knows
Saga, from memory you were around when Iluka made an opportunistic Offer.
In my opinion, if a reasonable Offer were received the Board could be forced to sell.
I posted “Sitting Duck” thread, wondering if you feel this could become reality?
It is not my preferred option and would likely mean I’ve wasted a couple of years here but I can’t see the board being supported if an Offer can in close to £4.50-5.00 and KMR would be steal at that Market Cap for a large strategic Buyer.
The trolls are back in force!!!!
Always positive sign for the Share Price.
Any morning from now the Share Price could start to run…
And we know, when it runs it runs……
If you want to buy in at a higher price…. You should wait and buy in when it’s right for you to do so……
Fair point, however, supports my point earlier is that there is a plan to deliver WCP move, paying dividends and generating cash with strong balance sheet upon completion.
The board should show the plan and how institutional investors can buy in now, get well paid along the way and realise a significant capital gain.
KMR is not a 2x multiple of EBITDA.
The board should address the perception of the Company head on and all it needs is a glass no empty approach, which is the current tone.
I can 3-4x multiple reasons why an opportunist Buyer would make an Offer.
The Shareholders Offered to sell a lot of shares in last tender offer, indicating they would take money off the table at £4.20 ish…
I wonder would they take all of more off the table at ££7.00
£7.00 feels like a long way away under this Board
Scot,
I agree with you 💯 on the technical and to some extent the financial due diligence.
However, having spent years in the advisory field I am 💯 certain that the usual suspects will also be spending £x00,000’s on external commercial due diligence to verify their market perceptions and tax due diligence to confirm that any offer of investment is tax efficient and does unduly burden either the Lender or PANR.
They will also be spending with lawyers checking title, leases, employment history to ensure that PANR is fully disclosing the whole truth, even if they hold warranties and indemnities to cover the same, and or use in house council.
Hundreds of thousands of £/$’s will only get them to and Offer stage which we know is already in the past (recent DH interview) therefore the Lending parties will spend millions at risk before Lending a single $.
I take your point but these investments have several/many internal and external teams running on them prior to the board approving any Offer and FID / IC Approval prior to Close.
Possibly different views on the same point.
Well, strike off the last paragraph….!
It is disappointing to see FIL reducing its stake and supports my other point that the board need to attract additional institutional shareholders to support the business.
I would love to see an activist investor getting involved here as the asset is 💯 underperforming its potential.
I think you called it last night when you said glass half full approach.
I’m ok with the Buy back as a lot of investors were willing to sell and wanted a capital return. The no. Of issued share is down and in time that’s positive.
I would be happier if the debt was simply repaid, as it’s a sign of balance sheet strength and would say to the market that the asset is here producing cash and come get it when you are ready.
In an ideal world, if the glass was half full, I think the board could present a case to the market whereby the forecast to reach Nataka, continuously producing, paying dividends and with a net cash balance of £xm.
Again this would send a very strong message to the market, from a share price perspective, allowing fund managers to see consistent income via dividends and potential for significant capital growth.
I know that a lot of that is said, behind a glass half empty screen, but come out, state it have some confidence in the asset, management team and ability to deliver.
All that said, nice to see FIL buying some more shares, the board need to attract more long term holders here to realise the actual market capitalisation the investors deserve.
Well played, deserved returns!!!
It’s been a journey and I’m well up but I 💯 agree with you that a Buyer could appear once the WCP move is largely complete.
But the price will be higher then and more cash distributed in the meantime.
I suspect I’ll be here to see it out!!!
Good Luck All, 🥂 to a good Q4 update and happy times ahead.
Rax,
Fair question, I’m think I partly looking to solicit a conversation. Partly, feeling the frustration you already feel.
But, my biggest point of frustration is seeing the share price down 10% because the board have failed to announce dates in a timely manner.
Their comments on dividends and pricing in December was unnecessary and spooked the share price. Then when the market expects the Q4 update the go silent. It is extremely poor.