Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Thanks Daniel. I was secretly hoping that it may have been someone building up a stake to make a bid, but although that could still happen, it doesn't look like it was the reason behind the accumulation of shares for the last 3 months.
I took one for the team this morning - sold 45% of my holdings at a smidge under 133p, which means it's bound to rocket from here!
More of a personal decision on my part as I needed some funds at some point over the next few weeks. I still think this will head to 140p by May (and maybe a lot sooner than that) but when news like this is announced there's always a chance that the SP can retrace after the initial excitement if the buyer is done buying for now, and I'd rather bank some profit now than stretch it out until May for a bit more. It killed me doing it, but need to have some risk management in place!
I'll keep the rest for a while as Cevian's involvement is good news over the longer term, and all the news flow in general with VOD is getting increasingly positive. With a little bit of tweaking (mergers, disposals, debt reduction etc) this could easily get to pre pandemic highs over the next 12 months, and maybe higher than that over the next 2-3 years.
GLA!!
Good work Mikey! Very interesting indeed. I knew there was someone building a big stake and that might explain it.
Should be a very good day Monday with this news and the Q3 update due - hopefully we'll smash through 130 and head towards 142.
Very strong finish on US markets as well.
Let's just hope WW3 doesn't start over the weekend to put a bit of dampener on things!
Yeah some serious volume going through on the ADR as well. Big buy at around 19.50 but it's been followed by more volume over the last 20 mins which indicates manual trading and not just auto trades being triggered like we saw the other day.
Looks like someone knows something....
Hi Daniel - you can view all transactions for the day by going to
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/VOD/vodafone-group-plc/trade-recap
Information will be delayed by 15 minutes though.
An off book trade is where two parties basically agree a sale privately and then report the transaction on the exchange. There was a massive spike in regular trades (mostly auto trades) at 13.58 which must have been when the off book trade at 12.57 was reported.
No it's not a disaster yet and probably won't be. US markets panicking about rates going up by around 1% this year but that won't get them back to the pre pandemic level of 1.75%. Market corrections of 10-15% have historically happened once a year - we just forgot as we haven't seen it for a while.
Most of the earnings reports so far have actually been good, and the underlying world economy is still good and growing.
It's quite funny seeing all of the reactions and wild swings in price - we are now very firmly in the realms of sentiment rather than sense and markets are going to be very volatile until people calm down a bit.
Underlying business and prospects for VOD still look good. They've been slowly grinding up profits and cashflow the way things are, and any mergers to reduce costs and competition is going to accelerate that trend, plus they might get a few quid of EU funding.
Short term this could get very bumpy though.
Like I said, a lot of it is to do with AT&T reporting today. Currently 8% down and VoD ADR about 2% down.
Listening to Powell’s press conference at the moment. He’s sounding very hawkish and markets have tanked since he started speaking and it’s not getting any better! US indexes swung from big gains to losses in last 45 mins and so have FTSE futures.
All getting a bit silly at the moment - even the smart money can’t make up their minds so we’ve got no chance !
Could very well just be a read through from AT&T as they reported results pre market that were just above expectations. They were up 2% pre market, but tanked on market open and are currently down 0.34%.
It seems the yanks are looking for anything remotely negatively in results and hitting the sell button. Saw it yesterday with Microsoft - beat all estimates, good forward guidance and was down 7% after hours at one point last night, although it's recovered well since.
Let's hope this bounces just as quickly too, although god knows which way the markets are going to go after the Fed meeting later today.
That's better Mikey. I was starting to get concerned the last few days as you almost sounded positive...
Market volatility, especially in the US, is really bonkers at the moment. Nasdaq was down almost 5% and VOD ADR retreated to 4% before I went out for the evening. Came back and Nasdaq closed positive and ADR up 6.7% ! Haven't seen that kind of volatility since the pandemic panic. I was scratching my head wondering what had happened, but couldn't find any fundamental reason for it - just fear of loss very quickly turning into fear of missing out.
Wild swings again this morning, although VOD now moving in the right direction and hovering around yesterday's high. Massive volume yesterday, and today is the first day we've had a big day followed by a day testing the highs since H1 2021 when the the SP was in the 120-142 range.
A breakout above yesterday's high would be fab or at the very least for the SP to take off it's ski's off, strap on some crampons and dig in with an ice axe at around these levels!
I have no idea what the SP will be by the end of the week. Vod looks set to outperform but it looks like the yanks have well and truly lost it now. Nasdaq down nearly 5% and Vix the highest since the pandemic panic in 2020.
I’m still holding as things could get a lot worse or we could see a quick snap back and I don’t have a crystal ball to know when to jump in and out !
Hi Daniel - the words 'buying rival' were used in the articles I read, although so were the words 'merging businesses'.
Maybe I'm reading too much into the use of the words 'buying rival' used by a journalist who thought that was the same as a merger! In my mind, buying would usually involve an element of cash paid in the offer, whereas a merger would be an all share deal. Who knows what was really discussed, but I can imagine if any large holders got a sniff of VOD making a part cash offer funded by more debt then it would have made them nervous.
Proper carnage today in the markets though.
It's remarkable how well the SP has held up whilst pretty much everything else apart from fags and Unilever are getting hammered!
Will be interesting to see how this pans out. Volume is much higher so far than the last big day/break out over 120 so it's a bit more encouraging, although always a risk of pullback when the price shoots up like this.
The question is whether this spike is a PI frenzy after reading the weekend press, or a real breakout fuelled by big money.
I'm quite surprised that the talks were about VOD buying Three as I thought a merger might have been on the cards, but a takeover was certainly a ballsy call on VOD part if a significant part of any potential offer was cash as that could have lead to some really eye watering debt levels!
I can fully understand now why some II holders were ready to sell large chunks of their shares these past couple of months if they thought that was on the cards, as that could have decimated the SP in the short term.
That would have been an extremely high risk strategy on VOD part, so they must be taking the potential of takeover bid very seriously, and must see longer term value in the SP than any potential bid which would likely be around the 160p mark.
The price action/volume since November is starting to make a lot more sense now.
Interesting times, especially against a backdrop of general market carnage!
PS - if the potential bidder is reading this, then you could definitely have all my shares for 160p :)
Yeah it is a bit of a bummer. Nearly everything down this morning.
Tricky to call which way markets are going to go short term in the current environment. Yanks wetting the bed about rising interest rates and have probably priced in too much hawkishness from the Fed, but valuations of US equities have been sky high the last couple of years.
Could be lots of volatility over the next few weeks/months as things get repriced. Vodafone has benefited the last few weeks from the rotation trade from tech/growth to value, but as I mentioned before, that rotation trade could turn into a rout.
It was looking like we'd get back into the 120-135 trading range after the Q3 update, but we might have to be a bit more patient if the fear spreads in the wider markets....
Hope it's not too bad for you Dan and you get well soon.
Lemsip hot toddies every 4 hours and a curry with fresh ingredients that's so hot it makes you sweat buckets got rid of it in a few days for me over the summer.
Good day for Vodafone yesterday. I was expecting a pull back after Tuesday but it was very minor, stayed clear of 120p and actually closed slightly above the opening price. 50MA about to cross up through 100MA as well.
9 trading days now until Q3 update. It will be interesting to see what happens as uptrend is still in place, although volume did tail off a bit yesterday. FTSE and US futures are up this morning, so could be another dip down/sideways move as we seem to be moving in the opposite direction to the markets!
Yeah I'm good Daniel - just being realistic. Big spikes up on low volume to resistance points are usually worse for the overall SP movement. Would have preferred the slower grind up on decent volume and for good news and a spike to occur when we were in the 130s so 142 would be in range and I can cash out a chunk! Wasn't planning on that happening until May, but would have been nice earlier.
Will have to see how the afternoon and tomorrow progresses. US markets are nuts at the moment so who knows! Just hope we don't get a nasty shooting star candle today and a close below 120p. Would be nice to see that level act as support.
Today's big rise is mainly down to Goldman Sachs adding BT to their conviction BUY list with a 270 price target. It looks like the telecoms re-rating that many were hoping for may have started.....
Whilst it's great to see a rise like this, so far it's on fairly average to low reported volume. Trying not to get too excited just yet as sudden spikes like this on low volume can often lead to a big retrace, especially as it's touching the Sep highs.
I guess we'll have to see what the yanks make of this. Would be great to heavy volume this afternoon and the price to stay around this level, but like I said, not going to get too excited just yet.