RE: asx trading halt6 Aug 2020 19:26
I definitely agree with you guys. When Tony entered the company it was immediately clear (due to his Fortescue background) that he isn't there to build one lake. He also said that in some interviews. Before he entered the plan was to build a test mine to see if the project is viable. He skipped that plan right away and pushed the project forward with an insane speed. And yes, as we all knew by now that has cost a lot of money. His vision is to create a SOP company with 3 lakes and an annual production of more than 1 million tonnes per year. And that in five! years. I can't tell if this is doable, they will need less then 2 years to bring Lake Way from a scoping study to production (if everything goes according to plan). I personally prefer a company that is developing a project fast which maybe costs more money upfront than a company that needs ages to develop a project (share price will not rise in this time frame too).
And regarding worldwide SOP demand, its currently about 7 million tons, growing at about 3 percent. I think about 2/3 is Mannheim (expensive), especially China Mannheim. Other producers may run into cost issues when the new cheap and more economically friendly Brine SOP is available on the market. For China I'm not sure as a lot of companies there are government-funded. Lake Way is producing about 245.000 per year. Danakali is hopefully producing about 460.000, in year 5 a ramp-up to 940.000. Direct Competitor KLL has a production rate of 164.000 and there are some other competitors in the second row (Agrimin etc). So in theory there should be enough possible supply in the future. The key in the future will be the execution. And in my opinion, SO4 has the best team in the sector today. If you ask the companies, they are saying that demand isn’t a problem at all. Only time will tell. But SO4 has currently the best conditions to become a success story in my opinion.