Member Info for CM370

She’s retiring to Thailand.

Https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/shell-buy-arc-resources-164-billion-deal-2026-04-27/

Looks like they’ll leave bp alone a little longer…..

😂- at this moment I think the biggest risk is the one he poses to himself!

Death by sharpie…….

The shortages are actually about to get real too.

Those ships that left port prior to 28 Feb and travel at 12 knots will just be making it to their destinations, those due to leave March 1 and since and obviously not delivering will be starting to bite across the world now.

The false market confidence will run out - “you can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality”

Trump has been a master of burying reality, but no one can bury the consequences.

Sorry typo - meant “only going one way” and I think that is up.

The market makers might not want it to, but I think the difference between perception and reality is quite massive in this market.

100% - suffice to say, one thing that is almost certain is the level of strategic advantage oil majors have in the form of privileged insight into the market!

I could be wrong but it would be my guess that the likes of shell and bp will be absolutely coining it from trading opportunity alone.

This period in history represents an amazing case study in how the market misprices physical risk…..

highly recommend a read of this article (or at least an ai summary from your llm of choice): https://houseofsaud.com/physical-crude-futures-gap-hormuz/

the disconnect between the futures price and the physical oil price suggests two things:

1) many analysts and institutional traders who opine on the oil market do not understand the oil market. they understand patterns relating to 40 years of stability and status quo and place their positions accordingly . this is so clearly evidenced by how the futures market is still so reactionary to what a bull**** administration is putting out publicly. the futures market is pricing on the basis of the strait of hormuz opening tomorrow, the physical market knows that won’t happen. the physical market understands the oil industry, the futures market understands patterns.

2) bp (and shell) with their in-house trading teams, have a much better fundamental understanding of the price differential between physical and futures prices. this is why in-house trading teams will always thrive during volatility, they understand the physics underpinning the volatility, not just pattern recognition.

all that to say, leaves me both perplexed that the futures market hasn’t woken up yet but also extremely confident that oil majors share prices are not going to go one way.

There’s a million Reddit channels where you can go and spit right, left, centrist political nonsense…….this isn’t the place.

You can bleat all you want about your position on who is right, who is wrong, who’s a tyrant who’s a terrorist.

Ultimately, your individual opinion and politics, no matter how much you want it to be so will have any material impact, up or down on bp’s share price.

So take your expert war commentary elsewhere and let this forum stay as a place to discuss events and share performance but for goodness sake let’s not turn this into a race to the bottom of who is going to be proved right or wrong.

Both Brent and bp will surge north again now.

Recent strikes on Iranian oil production infrastructure will result in retaliatory actions across the Gulf/Saudi.

Wouldn’t be surprised if $140 a barrel reached in the coming days and bp to track upwards accordingly!

Elliot!

The CO2 is both an upside and downside risk.

Upside as it’s one of the most effective substances at sweeping oil out of the well, meaning recoverable volumes go up.

Downside, CO2 plus water = corrosive material that can eat away at equipment. This leads to an upfront cost of having to coat anything touching the well with non-corrosive layer. Often costly, but across the lifespan of a find this large, will not be a blocker to progress, just a cost to factor into wider appraisal process.

Fortunately, it’s a common engineering issue to overcome and one bp and all producers are well versed in solving. It’s mentioned purely as it’ll contribute to drilling and recovery costs, but the commercial terms are so solid, once the hydrocarbons have been fully appraised it’ll be little more than an engineering cost to factor into production.

BP shares climbed by more than 5% on Wednesday after hedge fund Elliott Management revealed a 5.006% stake in the British oil major.

The stock was up 5.11% at 10:12 a.m. London time, partially reversing its declines year-to-date.

The jump follows Elliott’s regulatory filing late Tuesday, which confirmed its holding in BP, now making it one of the company’s significant stakeholders alongside BlackRock, Vanguard, and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund.

Elliott’s holding, executed through equity swaps, does not carry voting rights but reflects an intent to influence direction by aligning with other shareholders.

[LINK REMOVED]

Unless something has changed or I’m mistaken (both equally possible) Elliott’s stake in bp was derived through equity swaps, leaving them unable to formally vote. Obviously they can indirectly influence change and leverage others by sheer volume of interest, but a not insignificant and rarely reported factor!