Member Info for Citizenlane

surely not worse than GNS? what parts of your research have changed here since you bought in?

The Enanta RSV results were accompanied by an interesting editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine, suggesting that challenge studies were more likely to produce evidence of efficacy than population trials because they attacked the virus early. A couple thoughts follow from that, the first is that it is fantastic for Orph that these questions are being so widely aired in the lead article of the most important clinical journal in the world, particularly as there is no capacity to do such trials in the US. The second is that, perhaps, increasingly, multiple comparative challenge studies might be a preferable way of proceeding in drug trials, testing efficacy at different stages of infection (vaccine testing is different since it precedes infection). Also worth noting that entata mcap rose $24m yesterday on the trial news in a falling market. The NEJM piece is here https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2118465?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article

Interesting to note in the RNS that the company now see the Covid challenge model as a client ready part of the portfolio, primed for contracts. Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think it’s been mentioned in those terms in an RNS previously?

Ashb you ok mate?. If you’ve got debt issues there’s always people to talk to to help with restructuring. Better that than ranting to yourself on an anonymous message board.

if you think you are going to win every time over a six month period, I'd say AIM is not for you Ashb. Because of low volume this market is hypersensitive to sentiment and can transform in a day or two. Patience is king. The lows have to be weighed against the fundamentals. Whenever I've lost out I've lost sight of that. Remember you don't lose unless you sell, there is too much stacked in Orph's favour for it not to give you a return on 29p, imho, see how it looks in a month

No, here's another from Chris Chiu OO's partner at Imperial, showing the next phase of the Covid CHIM trials are on track, with recruitment now live. Given this progress past regulatory hurdles, multiple commercial Covid contracts will not be far away imho

https://twitter.com/ChrisChiuLab/status/1493602821178114056

but I can't see any better AIM prospect than OO at these prices. A lot of destabilising nonsense is talked about CF, the fact is he and his team have transformed this business in the last couple of years. It was, as our friend Shorteverything a no brainer strong buy at 22p. Ignore the noise, and look at the two key fundamentals, rare in any AIM stock: CF's interests are wholly aligned with those of shareholders, OO has a unique role in the battle against the ongoing crisis that has focused the whole world's attention and nearly collapsed the global economy. Primed only for growth from here imvho.

Short everything, quick question
this was you when you bought ORPH at 22p in December: "I listened to interview with CF. was very very good . Plenty of space . Opening another clinic in February. Onward and upward I would expect one more contract before new year big Pharma companies need company like OO for drug development"
And this was you a month ago: "New Variant Cyprus announced Contracts Coming
Should be news out soon . With more contracts coming soon I hope. More Variants more testing . No Brainer"

Could I ask what's changed since then (apart from the colour of your undercrackers)?

Point us to where he said he would sell it in 18 months, didn’t happen

It seems bizarre to me to suggest CF has failed just because his plans have not (yet) materialised. Did people really imagine he could control a share price rise to order month by month? (if so, that's the product he should have monetised). All CEOs talk up their company's prospects, set out best case plans. I still think OO has delivered a large proportion of what was promised and is on course to achieve the rest. But time frames slip, **** happens. Still remarkable for an AIM company that they have 95% of projected earnings accounted for in Feb. Onward and upward. DYOR

I would say news and detail of DiM spin off will push the SP back up into the 40s - ideally along with the first Covid contracts coming in. The RNS yesterday gave an insight into the kind of granular knowledge of disease progression that CHIMs provide. This live and ongoing data will be crucial going forward whether to DiM itself or to a bidder for OO. A lot of gloom around generally at the moment - perfect time to stock up imho. Sentiment can change overnight in this share.

Anyone selling for beer money on that news needs to give their head a wobble. Momentous news for Orph holders

Yes and Helen McShane has worked and published alongside Catchpole, and the Wellcome/Imperial folk from the beginning. This trial is certainly utilising hVivo tech. https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMp2106970

best just filter him Ruairi, he'll end up ranting to himself

The figures for excess deaths in England and Wales DESPITE the social distancing measures are pretty stark: more than 11000 a week at the height of the pandemic and consistently more than 1500 a week

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1131428/excess-deaths-in-england-and-wales/

“I want his head” ??calm down dear

New variant JB is no less toxic but significantly less articulate… perhaps the mutation is weakening

seems JB has a new variant

In my view, DiM and its potential rollout is being used by CF to concentrate acquisitive minds on a takeover of OO. He knows suitors will likely prefer to keep the data in house and the potential spin off - which also has much to recommend it for investors - therefore creates a powerful deadline for any bidding war. My guess is a very lucrative sale after further covid Chim news and before the summer. All speculation of course. Dyor

difference is, stt, OO is offering something pretty much unique in terms of challenge studies, with a high barrier to entry, can't see that at all with TLY, that's an increasingly crowded field, hence the disparity of MCAP imho - both are undervalued, time will tell which has the greater legs. In the mean time I don't see any value in ****ging off shares I don't care for, really bad for the soul, but whatever you get off on, I guess.