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Pokerchips:
'You need to be aware that the 8.72% refers to the % of CREST number of shares ...it doesn't refer to the % of TOTAL number of shares '
You raise a very good point and if I go back to the maths, I see what you're saying. But, for example:
Oct: Stock in CREST 1,021,464,297, so at 6.19% this = 63,228,639 of stock on loan through Euroclear.
However, crucially, I am not publishing these figures to 80million people via a regulated press that has been around for decades. I am putting them together as personal opinion.
Daily Mail clearly states ' stock on loan TRIPLED from OCTOBER TO DECEMBER to a volume of 110M shares.
So if the 63m shares on loan during October through Euroclear were ALL the shares on loan, the number for December would need to 189M to be a triple.
If there were 81m on loan approx from CREST in November, a double would have to be 162m in December.
The figures in the Daily Mail article don't even match their own maths within the article. They are even saying the 110m is 4%. But they managed to crow bar in their headline of 'DOUBLING' shorts.
That's why I think its wrong. Most people wouldn't try to check the maths, but will just remember the information, that on the face of it, looks made up unless they can prove it, given that their own maths doesn't stack up.
Daily Mail article - I checked the Euroclear lending figures:
Oct - 6.19%
Nov - 7.85%,
Dec - 8.72%
8% is approx 110m shares.
Daily mail claims -
- Stock on loan DOUBLED from the start of December, so relative to November?
- Stock on loan TRIPLED from October to December, up to an amount of 110m shares, representing 4% of stock. I cannot comprehend those figures, especially as 4% is around 55m. I wonder if they will issue a correction that doesn't mention the false 'tripling' but simply corrects the 4% to 8%?
I've reported them to the FCA.
Ah GJ, I didn't know there was a 4m sell printed after close yesterday. So that could explain the drop yesterday. Let's see what happens today. Unfortunately, 2% of the float is 27m - yikes. Let's hope they don't want to reduce the lot.
Ste - What am I supposed to read into GS buying in November and then selling now?
As in, if its GS, at some point they are finished.
TBH GJ I am speculating that Goldmans (who appear to have taken a speculative position sub 2 quid back in November) are currently closing out which might explain the drop on more buys than sells. Same with yesterday. As they got themselves down to under 3% when they TR1'd, I am not sure they have to report. But price action next week would reveal whether its a sell off / shorters or whether it was GS exiting and then done.
I haven't seen any negative posts on these boards beyond regular investor chat and concerns, then suddenly Down starts posting with garbage posts. What a shame. This will tick back up eventually.
Mando, I don't understand your comment:
"That would suggest most increased short positions would have been taken following the share price increase off the back of good news, so in a range of 211p to 235p, so I'd expect the shorts to be happy offloading slowly between 200 to 210 range before the Q4 update."
By 'offloading' I assume you mean they will buy back between 200 and 210? In which case we may not be here for long.
Whereas is the shorting is happening now, we may be here for longer. Impossible to know but expecting a bounce Friday.
Why don't you average in over several days, which is what most people do? Not trying to teach you how to suck eggs, but it seems a reasonable strategy.
Marc your post the other day was really great.
Its been a few weeks now (8?) where BEN has been trading in a range waiting on the next move and I was thinking about when that would be. Listening to the BEN interview - near term highlights started at 1m45: “we have nearly finished fixing up the railway line…nearly fixed up the production plant…we’re adding acquisitions…we’ve got a clear vision of what we want to be as we add reserves, infrastructure and product”.
When I listened back to that it reminded me of where this is heading. BEN will probably have taken that initial production cost payment now for the productions costs themselves.. or they will be very close to receiving it. Then, when the wash plant and railway line are ready, the first product will be shipped and the product payment and first profit will be received.
Q1 should be very interesting.
Licker - 'but you just can't lie on clear facts in a major newspaper'.
I am not saying the journalist has lied. I am saying that these two key 'facts' don't seem to match to price action and if I were the company, THG, I would be interested in that because they are big statements to make when the price action indicates more buying pressure than selling pressure.
As an individual, I am interested in those two facts behind the article. If they are true, there's a case here for investors to want to understand why, as the 'why' paints a picture - shorts are used for multiple reasons at different times. Most stocks have shorts open all the time, often with no consequence where its simply hedging.
If its not true, its either a **** up or manipulation.
Anyway, it could be all forgotten in 2 to 3 trading sessions if the price kicks on.
Hi,
Is anyone aware whether what the Daily Mail is saying is factually correct?
It might just be sloppy journalism if its not correct but it could also potentially be market abuse, even if someone has spoon fed incorrect data to an unwitting journalist...
Fact one - 'The value of THG shares held by short-sellers doubles in a fortnight to £110m'. Is this correct? I wonder if the company can easily ascertain the truth of this?
Fact two - 'The number held in such positions is currently three times greater than when Moulding complained about short trading activity in October.' Is this true? If the company can obtain the figure for shorts over the last two weeks and compare them to shorts open during October, it must be pretty easy to compare to see whether they are 3x the amount of shares now.
All looking very odd indeed.
I don't know if its a year end requirement, but the total voting rights have not changed since the options were exercised at end of November (and sold through at start of December judging by volumes / price action on admission). It indicates that no CLNs have been converted since the draw down began, but whether that's the intention I wouldn't know.
He's pretty manipulative though, all the hiding behind altar egos and claiming money is leaving one stock for another, when both are winners. He must be pretty aware that a lot of people are invested in both, so more or less he is saying to those people 'I don't care how much I p*ss on your chips, so long as I get my ramp'. There are better ways of going about things.
MediMan, I think its a turn of phrase he is using to imply that holding long from early doors has benefits in terms of the ratio of return. Its unlikely to be anything complex as I don't think its allowed to pay back dated divi's. So the divis will be for all shareholders with a forward date ex and record date to capture everyone eligible, but if the divi came in around 10p, then anyone holding from initial listing would be getting their initial investment back in first dividend.
Essentially he is saying 'stick around'.
He's still holding.
Bladey - think its just trades, volume isn't high.
Older - apologies. I am sure both will do well.
Wondergoals, agreed let's stick to BEN.
Burton, you posted this to the BEN board as well, so I had a quick listen. If anyone wants to do that exercise of comparing BEN and CGO, have a read of this about CGO CEO.
https://www. businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/italian-who-cheated-kenyans-of-sh450m-goes-to-harare-2230868
If anyone want to do that exercise of comparing BEN and CGO, have a read of this about CGO CEO first.
https://www. businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/italian-who-cheated-kenyans-of-sh450m-goes-to-harare-2230868
Interesting article, its more about BEN in a roundabout way. To offer a little balance on CGO, I would encourage people to thoroughly research Carl Esprey at Contango - very thoroughly. They are basically very different companies.
John knows, but I doubt he'd tell you.