Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It is a bit worrisome and frustrating to have a lack of transparency about the settlements made and new financing raised by Art. From what I read, he settled 1.3 million of "historic debt" with shares. What exactly is that? What is our monthly outlay now? And what is the additional monies he raised with this key unnamed investor needed for? Why did we have to raise monies at such low share prices? I think it is this lack of transparency that is keeping the share price down. I am happy to see a settlement with Essar, but that is something we were told existed already, and we were told that repeatedly. Long and short - we have been waiting about 5 years now for Art to get a drill in the ground. So when will they?
If you own this share, you want to see it succeed. If you have been a long term holder, you can find a number of times that promised things have not happened in a timely fashion. Essar is now driving the bus and we are a carried interest. Our price will move with the progression toward a drill. Does Essar have the resources to get this done quickly? That, to me , is the only question.
We can all speculate about how fast an extension will be granted. Personally, I don't see a drill until H1 of 2021. But if you read the July financial disclosure on the Canadian website, it discloses that COPL are looking for financing. The only thing we currently need financing for is to pay our share of historic costs to increase our holding up to 15%. We have 90 days from first drill to do that. So that bodes well for us long term shareholders to suggest that this is moving along as fast as we would hope. Essar cannot control how fast we get our extension. Time is actually our friend now - it gives Art more time to get financing on better terms so we can buy up our interest to 15% in this asset by our due date. The fact that he is looking at financing and not a dillutive share raise also suggests the asset is sufficient to convince a lender to advance here. GLTA
This board is getting a bit tired with a bunch of posts about the stock price movement over an hour or so. Some of us have been in this company for years, so a few days here and there are nothing overall. Our sp will not make any sense until we have a license extension, the terms of extension are disclosed, and Essar N announces a drill program start date. Buy and hold, cash out when you reach your blink point. We will see a lot of crazy things happening in Q4 2020 and Q1 and 2 2021. GLTA
Arthur is in London from what I heard. So if we get an agm this year you are more likely to be able to attend in London as compared to Alberta ! I am waiting for a drill result and I am expecting that by January of 2021. Lord knows we are certainly going to be a takeout target at that point so our share price will finally correct .
Thanks NoEasy, that actually helps. So for relatively new people to this board, the only thing needed here is for government approval of an extension, following Ebola, elections and now Covid, so lots of justification to approve an extension. Which is why NoEasy is saying below - that Essar N should get that extension granted in a really short timeframe. The release confirming we have the extension moves our stock price. Because that will disclose the terms upon which Essar N has to drill. And from there, we will get a further release to confirm when Essar N is actually going to drill in compliance with the extension. At that point, investors will have to decide their risk tolerance to wait for the drill result. No idea what that price is in the drill lead up, but it certainly has to be much higher than where we currently sit. GLTA
NoEasy- I appreciate you pulling out the reference, but are we not dealing with a change of control? I understood our first delay in extension was approval of the transfer from Essar M to ShoreCan. Now ShoreCan is transferring shares back and Essar M again will be in the control position. Honestly - did we ever get approval of the transfer OUT of Essar M to ShoreCan approved? Maybe the license can be approved because we are back to Essar M being in the control position. However it is interpreted, I hope you are right the extension is approved in such short order.
I think a fortune can be made here, once the releases come out to confirm Essar N is granted the extension, and Essar N announces the drill program and date the drilling starts. For those of you that are not faint of heart, I expect you will be able to day trade this for profits as the price is not going to move in a straight line - we will get profit taking as we push this share price up to where it should be. GLTA
slight correction below to my post - I meant that Nigeria has to approve the share transfer from ShoreCan to Essar M in Essar N as part of the license extension approval to Essar N.
skittish, I think from knowledgeable posters on this board that Nigeria NNPC and DPR had to see that we had firm settled agreements with Essar M so that they could approve a license extension to Essar N on appropriate terms, which would include ratification of the share transfer from ShoreCan to Essar N. So the next release on the extension could only ever follow the release confirming written agreements made between Essar M and ShoreCan. Now Nigerian authorities can approve the extension to Essar N on the right terms. I think that the extension is 100% certain to be given, the question is only one of how much time Nigeria take to give it. I have read people here posting it could be announced within a few weeks. But who knows? Other people posted here that a drill within 2020 is not likely, so I take that as suggesting a build in for time to get Nigerian approvals, and then its 60 to 90 days for Essar N to do the drill.
So why do I think it is a 100% certain to be given? Art and employees would not have settled their wages and debts for shares if they didn't think the data showed this property had oil and gas that could be extracted at commercial profit. And that only happens if Essar N gets a license extension. The big financing done, was by an unnamed key insider. Who agreed to put in more money than was initially requested. I expect those people are making investment decisions with more information than we have.
GLTA
Thanks skittish, that makes sense. Nigeria needs to see a signed deal to be sure they are granting an extension when there is a firm agreement. That makes sense. I hope it can come quickly now. And then I think when Essar announces a drill date, we will finally get the true market cap and share price. If the license can happen that fast- I sure hope that we then get some definite deadlines from Essar on a drill date. GLTA
So the key phrase to me in that release is the part about the application to the two entities in Nigerian government for the extension. I have read on this board someone talking about another company that had a shareholder dispute, sorted it out and had Nigerian approval to an extension within days. But we have already had an extension here, and it took us months. The excuses given at that time were Ebola and Elections. Now we have Corona and isolation issues. So anybody with knowledge about how long this extension of an existing license will take? In current conditions? Next - I understand Essar has its own drill ship. Someone here posted they thought Essar could drill within 6 weeks. Isn't that all we need to do to keep our license? We have about 7 or 8 weeks left on the existing license - so can Essar not already have a ship on the way with definitive agreements signed? So we do the drill we need to do to keep the license ? But I have also read here and heard there is no chance we could drill in 2020. So anybody in oil and gas on this board that could give us some educated direction on timing of next steps?
Lots of golf in Saskatchewan. Decent courses and reasonably priced. I live in Calgary and the ski and snowboard options around here are awesome in winter. Canada is a great place to live and the 4 seasons just give us different things to do. Art will release Monday if need be. I understand he is in London so he will follow uk Hollidays. It won’t matter if it is a holiday here. It doesn’t seem to us he cares much for the Canadian investors that have stuck around so long.
I hope it is creditors or employees that took stock to settle. A half penny Canadian is break even for them and if it was wage settlement I hope it is just people here that need money. News due within days
Monday is a holiday in Canada. So we hear the next three days or the 4th. My money is on the 4th we get a status update . Won’t speculate what it says
Thanks very much No Easy. It would be great if we get a confirmation of extension that fast. But if our license doesn't expire until September 30 - I wonder if they would announce an extension before the current one expires. I sure hope so. The sooner we get that sewn up, the sooner Essar can commit to starting the drill test.
Mr. Nation, I appreciate the enthusiasm. Help me understand this part though. We are expecting a confirmation we have a new deal with Essar, in writing. That is the release coming soon. Our current license expires September 30. I believe we have to apply for an extension. I recall we had one extension already, because of Ebola. I recall it took months to get that sorted out? This is the part that concerns me. Does anybody know how fast it should be to get Nigerian approval of a license extension? If this is merely an extension of the license, is it a problem that ownership is changing again back to Essar?
I don't expect a drill announcement until we get a license extension approval. If Essar has a deal by August 4, can a drill be done before September 30? That is what confuses me. How fast can we actually drill if we turn it over to Essar to drive the bus? So I too hope we can drill by Q4 of 2020. I just don't know how reasonable that expectation is. So anybody with experience in this area - on this board - say we get an announcement August 4 the deal is signed off with Essar. What is the likely timing and next steps until we could put a drill bit in the ground?
While we have had 2 extensions, we are being told each time the parties mutually agree to the extension. If they mutually agree to extend, the delay is because both parties want to sign a new deal. So it is frustrating, but much better than being told they cannot agree at all.
Essar spent 66 million on this and have been waiting years to get that investment back. Now they are driving the bus, we can expect Essar will want to get this proven and producing way faster than we could have done it, with our lack of capital. So all of the past excuses and history- yes, they frustrate me too. But our new deal was made June 5. So right now - we are looking at getting a drill in the ground and other posters described the geology and opportunity. What happened in the past can frustrate you - but this is a different deal now. We all need the new deal announced. And then some releases telling us the extension is granted, and when Essar plans to drill. So lets see what happens.
I think the personal attacks of anybody just diminish the credibility of the poster. We are all unhappy, clearly. Like Mr. P - I don't think outside investors would be putting more into this company if there was huge risk we won't complete a deal with Essar. So far, no release has said there is a problem with our new deal with Essar. Last release says it will be completed shortly. So as unhappy as I am, eyes on the prize, I am in this through a drill. And I did expect more dilution, although I had hoped it would be done at higher prices. so they did it now. It may mean the price rerate with the dilution is not as good, but Art wouldn't convert his debt to shares if he didn't think it would benefit him in the long run. So if he owns more shares, he is clearly going to want to see the share value go up. And that benefits the rest of us. SO I guess we can look at it that way and just be patient. GLTA
I appreciate your posts Mr. P- it is nice to have some positive vibes. Jiving's post expresses long term shareholder frustrations and I share them. Some solid insight on this board from experienced oil and gas people that can explain how this geology will be explored and what the seismic tells us. I appreciate the posters that put that up and reviewing that here. I agree it is good to see a reorganization because nobody in their right mind would put so much money into this company unless they were confident they could see a future return. However, I hope they leave some of it to the rest of us patient shareholders.
Really, our critical deadline is September 30 -because that is when our license runs out in Nigeria. So I guess we will get a new release when we get a news release.
No Easy, you are also a long term shareholder here too. Haven't we seen this in the past? We are told a date, or deadline, and when it doesn't happen, we don't get an explanation. Art has said at past AGM's that he doesn't issue a release to deal with a missed deadline because he would have to keep explaining himself. It makes you think - then why give us a date in the first place? It made everyone expect it meant something. So when they use the word "shortly" - that says to me they are working toward an agreement, have a sticking point, and can't promise when it will be settled.
However- I think our next release has to say that we have a deal with Essar AND an extension on approved terms with Nigeria. I don't think we get one without the other. So maybe that is the holdup.
And I don't think this could be done in 6 weeks - if so, we could arguably beat our terms for the license term due date to then seek a further extension.