Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
They reported that their credit card company insists on a much higher level of collateral which has put an unbearable strain on their cash resources. They failed to mention a figure! I wonder what would be needed and if the cash could be raised in a rights issue. Failing that, I'd gladly chip in and help buy the company.
Call me stubborn, cutting off my nose etc, but I really would prefer 0p than having my shares stolen from me at 1p. If this goes through, my confidence in investing in any listed company is going to take a massive hit. Where are the regulators?
I'm obviously missing something! If the credit card companies are insisting on more collateral which, as I understand it, is tying up any spare cash Flybe has, why is it so important to retain the facility. Why don't they simply insist on Debit card payments?
Clearly there's a lot not be made clear to the shareholders. The board must explain themselves. I'd like to know just how many shares they have control over and what the Takeover panel has to say. If the shareholders of a listed company can be so easily shafted, how is that going to effect confidence in the market as a whole.
I wish I could buy a flight for £12.50! I usually pay about £70 for each leg of the journey. Sometimes much more but never less. And, this last weekend, the plane was packed out. PS. my plane home had just flown in from Belfast.
30th Sept 18 balance sheet shows a NAV of £116m or 53pps. Slots at Heathrow worth £100m?? Cash in hand £60m. Projected loss on the way. New planes on order, loss making routes being axed. Find all the facts and make your best guess. For what it's worth (nothing) I'll guess 40-50p. Whatever happens, fasten your seat belts and enjoy the turbulence.
What drives the Exillon price has very little to do with its reserves or market oil prices. It's all about the game of bluff and counter bluff! You need to look at its history, who now owns the shares, their business history, and what's most likely to happen with east west relations. The price is just as likely to go down 50% as it could rise by 100%. Based on the factors you might normally use to value an oil company, the share price should be closer to £4 or £5. One things pretty certain, you won't see that sort of price but what could happen is someone may make an offer and if they do it's likely to be in the region of £2 to £3 and that's pretty much the only reason why there's any interest in it.
Two more days and Khotin can start buying again. The price was low before, now it's ridiculous!
I believe Khotin bought his shares on, or slightly before, the 4th December 2013 at 377p. I think that means in less than two weeks he could make an offer at whatever price he likes. As gambier01 has said, that price is likely to be painfully low and in the region of 220-240p. I think Khotin has been riding his luck this year and will want to bring it to a conclusion just as soon as he can. He's been risking that another suitor won't make an offer before his 12 month period has passed. But, if it goes on much longer somebody surely will. There's too much to gain, or for Khotin, there's too much to loose. Put another way, he's got to consider himself a very lucky boy indeed that he's got this far with less than two weeks to go. Perhaps he has some sort of hold on the market that effectively prevents others making a bid. We can only speculate! It could get very interesting or very messy!
Has anybody got any contact details/email addresses for someone in the Russian Finance Ministry? I think a comment from them regarding the possible consequences of breaking stock exchange rules might be quite interesting. I just can't believe the Russians are so stupid that they'd allow one individual to profit from shady practices that could so easily destroy all western confidence in their markets.
Whilst I've got no evidence for saying this, I doubt that we're seeing the true trade price. I think private trades could be taking place off exchange and being reported with prices designed to keep the market price low. Why else would someone sell £8m worth of shares so cheaply, and probably at a significant loss. We all think the true value is well over twice the market price so what other explanation could there be. Price manipulation rules could be being broken here and the regulator is taking no notice. My only hope is that when the twelve month waiting period is over in January next year that an offer will be made that at least allows me to walk away without a loss.
The current share price values the company at $253m. Their profits are up 200% because they're not spending much now their exploration drilling appears to have been stopped. With their current sales it won't be long before they have more cash in the bank than the companies worth! How does that work then?
Yet again we see the share price fall as fearful investors outweigh the brave ones. Well, perhaps not brave just a bit more trusting. This latest price fall is just another chance to pick up some cheap shares but I'd wait a few more days until the government supported anti Russian campaign comes to a close. By the way, I'm not Russian, just glad Britain doesn't have any squabbling neighbours to deal with at the moment.
If Khotin does make an offer he's still subjected to the rule that states he must make his offer at a price no lower than any price he paid in his acquisitions over the previous twelve months. That means the offer will have to be at least £3.77.
You may or may not be correct, time will tell. Either way, this is the reason for the low SP. Personally, I don't think such powerful and wealthy people would risk jail which, if any fraud was discovered, would be the end result especially with the Russian govt being such a significant investor.
£4 was based on optimism and the expectation that the company would deliver one day. To some extent the optimism was well founded because in asset terms the company is well worth £4 and possibly a great deal more. Stock exchange rules for listed companies are there, first and foremost to protect the minority investor from the big boys and usually work well but in this case they've failed us and could actually be seen as working against our interests. As we all know, Khotin bought 29.99% of the shares. He could have bought more but didn't because he didn't want to be forced into making an offer for the whole company at £3.77. The rules say he can't make any lesser offer until 12 months have passed which won't be until early next year. The belief in the market is that he's working in concert with other major shareholders who, collectively, appear to have the power to stop any outsider from making a successful bid. This basically leaves us at his mercy. I expect as the cash reserves continue to build the pressure on him to make a bid will also build so my guess is an offer will be made early next year. Reading other chat, this seems to be the consensus. And the eventual price? who knows, but it's got to be high enough not to appear like a total shafting but low enough to make it worth his while. A few pundits have suggested £2.80/£2.90 which I have to reluctantly agree with. So, we can expect a steady climb to somewhere close to that figure by the end of the year. Of course, every now an then a story will leak out that will cause the price to fall after which it'll start to rise again. So, my advice is to hang on but if it starts to fall then sell but buy back in as soon as it starts to rise again. I know this advice is contrary to the general rule but this situation is an exception. Anyway, happy hunting everyone :)
Perhaps I'm being naïve but I've seen nothing to doubt the quality of their corporate governance which is run in the Isle of Man anyway, a very well regulated jurisdiction. The major shareholders and directors are Russian but what’s wrong with that. I know the media loves to bash the old adversaries and I don’t favour them over anybody else but let’s not forget they are a very proud nation with high moral standards. We don’t have to agree with all of their policies just like they don’t have to agree with the way we look at things. The fact is, they want to be, and it’s in their interest, to be a major player in the global market place and I just can’t see Putin or any other official putting up with selfish foul play that could bring all of them into disrepute. No more unfounded Ruskie bashing please!
If Exillon was ever fought over in a bidding war by two independents the real price would become clear. Unfortunately, that's unlikely to happen in the near future so all we can do is place our trust in the board to do the right thing and I have no reason to doubt their integrity which is why I'm staying put. That said, the share price we see is a balance between our fear and our greed. We all know it's worth much more than 153 but we fear getting shafted and loosing the lot. This is going to play out in one of three ways: One of the major shareholders makes an offer, it's going to be far less than its value, I'd guess around 200 will attract sufficient shareholders to bite his hand off. The second play could be the board decides to make capital repayments or dividends which will make the price shoot up but I doubt that would ever happen, The third and most likely play is that nothing will happen and why should it? The company will continue to grow its cash reserves, pay off its debts, keep spending on production expansion and take out new leases. One day, when it's seen as a major player or a threat to other oil companies it'll get snapped up and the investors will be rewarded for their patience.
Not really, I have several other safe & boring stocks to balance out the exciting and unpredictable Exillon. It is my pension after all! Cheers
The quality of the stock itself can't be questioned, in fact I've seen valuations of £8 considered reasonable and comparable to other similar stocks. So what's keeping the price low? I think it's a case of shareholder trust/mistrust. The departure of the directors last month saw the price plummet because people thought the rumours regarding price manipulation in order to buy it out on the cheap were true. Now the price is creeping back because there's enough buyers out there who don't believe the new major shareholders would act in a such a way. I've got no reason to doubt their integrity so I'm staying put. Having said that, I admit I do have some doubts. Big risks for big gains. That's why we do it!! Perhaps not one for the pension funds.