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1. Tullow is undervalued.
2. Oil prices and oil demand is recovering (vaccines).
3. Shorters need to close their positions.
Facts are facts and we are still at 7.5% disclosed short postions and posibly another 2.5% to 5% undisclosed short positions. Shorts haven't reduced much yet, until shorters don't considerably reduce their positions the upside potential remains there it will multiply any effect of an increase in the oil prices, we will know when they are reducing their shorts, we will see it as a result in an increase of the share price.
We will know when they close, but it won't be before the SP trades above £1.
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareShortPositions.asp?shareprice=TLW&share=Tullow-Oil
"even if they don't like the price."
It was the shorters who pushed Tullow all the way to single a digit, too many shorters in here, if it weren't for them we would have never been trading at such lows (below quarterly dividend), it doesn't matter if they don't like the price they oversold at ridiculous prices and they will soon need to buy back and close their shorts. Oil prices will go up in the following months and they are living on borrowed time.
Without Covid 70$ per barrel is feasible. US shale is not profitable at this levels and many of their oil rigs will never be operative again (internally damaged from built up pressure). Also the shale binge has spoilt the US reserves and OPEC want higher oil prices. They have huge debts, welfare states and cannot afford competition. The lower the price the more likely is to round, 40-70$ per barrel is the lower end of the continuum 80-140$ per barrel could be a higher end for the next 5-10 years. Buying an oil company when oil prices are at 50$ is nowhere as "risky" as buying it when oil is at the higher end of the continuum. So to answer to your question no, I don't think there is a big risk that oil production will kick in and bring the oil price back down again because we are already on the lower end and oil investments are down.
Elllltelinv
You call high 30s / low 40s a significant move???
What will you call then a move of £1 or £2?
Goldman is buying more shares.
$50/barrel for the next 3 years is unrealistic, it won't take a year to vaccinate most people.
In 6 months we could see the economy completely recovered, we will all have forgotten the lockdowns and the curfews in a year. This Christmas will be the last chance that prudish and sanctimonious politicians will have to impose lock downs.
Expect oil to surpass 50$ this month and 55$ on January.
At breakeven even price from the opening price. Might finish up green today.
It should be us today to go up.
29p (13% fall???) not in the wildest dreams for shorters!!!
We could even go up today!!!!
Less economic activity, still is winter is comming and oil consumption is up.
Expect Brent to surpass 50$ per barrel this month.
How does Brexit affect in any shape, way or form to Tullow's oil operations???
Our oil wells are based is Africa and not the UK!
Be patient, the share price will keep going up over time.
PMO did things wrong, their hedges are not as good as ours and their assets are not as numerous as ours.
Boardroom sack COO build a well in the wrong way in the wrong place, drop in production from 85k to 75k pis.sing off institutional investors in a morning call (CEO quitting sounds bad but fundamentals didn't change), "irrealistic" previous expectations (promising 150kbopd or 200kbopd future production, although 120kbopd is now achivable with Kenya in the long run)
In January we might hit 55$ 60$ per barrel and we are still at trading at 35p. It's ridiculous! We should be at 150p!
When was their report?
Cui Bono?
By drawing a straight line 50p by the end of December or beginning of January but we could also be at 50p in 2-3 weeks.
If we get "lucky" maybe this Monday.
Not every all oil companies are reducing debt, just take a look at Total or Repsol.
We are reducing debt and keeping production up and exploring new assets and developing new assets.
We are in a very good shape, with less debt each year it's easier to increase our lending facilities, RBL is delighted with us.
Don't worry about debt maturities in 2025, with so little leverage we will easily find the money.